Petrobras’ Exploration Block Sale Reduces Debt by $1.25 Billion, a Credit Positive
Last Monday, Brazil’s national oil company Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (B2 stable) said that it will reduce debt using $1.25 billion of proceeds from the sale of an exploration block to the Brazilian subsidiary of Norway’s state-owned oil company Statoil ASA (Aa3 stable). The sale and debt reduction are credit positive for Petrobras, which has been struggling with a high debt burden of $123 billion. When Petrobras announced a new business plan for 2017-21 that called for asset sales to supplement its liquidity, it committed to reducing its reported net debt/EBITDA ratio to 2.5x by the end of 2018 from 4.07x as of September 2016. The sale marks another small step in Petrobras’ effort to sell $19.5 billion in assets during 2017-18. The company today has roughly $247 billion in assets following more than $10 billion in asset sales during 2016. The asset-sale goal appears feasible, and efforts to divest assets and manage liabilities have already improved Petrobras’ liquidity. From May to October 2016, Petrobras issued around $10 billion in new notes, using proceeds primarily to repay notes maturing 2017-19. But the uncertain final outcomes of two US federal investigations – a Department of Justice criminal investigation of bribery and corruption and a Securities and Exchange Commission civil investigation of accounting accuracy, both begun in 2014 – leave unclear whether Petrobras could easily pay any fines. Because Petrobras aims to keep $18-$20 billion of cash at all times, disbursing cash to pay even moderate fines would probably compel the company to borrow or sell more assets to help boost its cash and address its nearly $10 billion in maturities due in 2017. The company’s ability to reduce leverage by the end of 2018 will hinge not only on asset sales, operational efficiencies and production increases, but also on global oil prices. Our current view of oil prices at $40-$60 per barrel through 2019 makes Petrobras’ leverage plans feasible but precarious, with little room for error to service its debt and make the capital investments on which oil producers rely. Still, the Statoil deal shows that Petrobras remains intent on raising cash however possible to reduce its debt burden and improve its liquidity.