Kazakhstan Allocates $6.5 Billion to Resolve Bank Problems, a Credit Positive
On Monday, Kazakhstan authorities announced plans to inject KZT2.1 trillion ($6.5 billion) into the National Distressed Asset Fund so that it can buy problem assets from banks facing heightened insolvency risks. The purchases will significantly reduce problem loans and improve banks’ asset quality, a credit positive. The KZT2.1 trillion capital injection exceeds the Kazakh banking system’s total of overdue loans, which was KZT1.9 trillion, or 12.2% of gross loans as of 1 January 2017. Including other restructured problem loans, we estimate that total problem assets comprise 37% of total gross loans, much higher than Kazakhstan’s official estimate. The difference is largely because of our treatment of the largest local lender Kazkommertsbank’s (B3/Caa2 review direction uncertain, ca4 ) KZT2.5 trillion non-delinquent exposure to BTA (unrated), its largest borrower. We expect that the measures will help Kazakh banks address the problem-loan overhang from prior years and will sharply cut the problem-loan ratio by 13 percentage points to about 24% of gross loans. The new injection significantly adds to the roughly KZT400 billion injected into the National Distressed Asset Fund in previous years to repurchase nonperforming loans (NPLs) from the country’s largest banks. Banks earnings will also rise because cash that can be invested in interest-earning assets, translating into larger net interest income, will replace nonperforming assets. With Kazakhstan’s nominal interest rates at more than 12%, we estimate that banks’ sales of problem loans will add more than KZT200 billion (about 1% of risk-weighted assets) to their annual income, providing the troubled banking sector with additional loss-absorbing capacity. Authorities have not yet provided details on the support allocation among lenders, but we expect Kazkommertsbank, which has the majority of the sector’s problem assets, will be the major recipient of the government aid. Among other rated Kazakh banks, ATF Bank (Caa2 negative, caa3) and Bank CenterCredit (B2 negative, b3) also report substantial problem assets, as shown in the exhibit, and would also benefit from the government aid.