Italian press leaks response of Seat Board to Lighthouse bondholders
Reiterate “Buy” PGIM 10.5% 11/17 at 70 or a YTW of 20.3%; Reiterate “Speculative Buy” on LIGHTH 8% 4/14 at 15
On Sunday, Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore reported that the Board of Seat offered Lighthouse bondholders to swap EUR 1.2 bn of debt to equity, with the remainder rolled-over into a new security with a 11.5% coupon. This compares with the bondholders’ original reported offer of a EUR 1.0 bn debt for equity swap, with EUR 300 mn of rolled-over debt at a 12.5% coupon. Clearly, the Board’s counteroffer improves both pro forma leverage and coverage ratios of the restructured company. In our view however, the important news is that discussions appear to be active and progressing. The gap between the two parties does not appear unbridgeable, although the equity ownership levels have not been disclosed and could be a major stumbling block. We continue to believe the October Lighthouse coupon (due 31/10) will be paid and kept current. At Friday’s market levels of 15, based on the Board’s counteroffer, we estimate that Lighthouse bonds currently price in the equivalent of two coupons (8%), one restructured bond (100/1300 = 7%) and a free option on the new equity of the company, which we believe is an attractive speculative play with low capital-at-risk and decent upside should the restructuring be successful and the equity perform well. We note there is apparently no talk of impairment on the senior secured PGIM paper, which is consistent with our estimate of healthy recoveries in the 90% - 100% range. Accordingly, we believe PGIM offers good value at current prices. We further believe that one of the parties deciding to hold-up a consensual restructuring would have a greater negative effect on Lighthouse bondholders than those of PGIM, as the uncertainty and possible erosion of value created by a bankruptcy process in Italy would directly impair Lighthouse recoveries. We maintain our “Very High Risk” assessment.