Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1
- Creatore Discussione TRADING_IDEAS
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
tengo ovviamente, a questi prezzo ormai non ha senso vendere, parliamo sempre del primo operatore messicano, vedo le prossime news e valuto se mediare.
gualberto
Charlie don't Surf
non vorrei essere in culato come con le Alpine...
cazz di settore costruzioni
zero e porto zero di recovery
fabriziof
Forumer storico
volevo tenerne un po' poi ho optato per la vendita di tutti e 25k ,per autopunirmi ,il mio nuovo corso non prevede importi simili su hy del genere.
può anche darsi che alla lunga si riprenda ,o che si faccia una ristrutturazione su questi livelli di prezzo (ma può ancora scendere),quello che non vedo è una ripresa a breve ,allora tanto vale scommettere sul venezuela.
fabriziof
Forumer storico
infatti è questo che mi ha convinto ,il recovery degli altri costruttori messicani che sono falliti negli ultimi anni ,zero.è vero che ica è più grossa però è meglio non rischiarenon vorrei essere in culato come con le Alpine...
cazz di settore costruzioni
zero e porto zero di recovery
da forum tedesco
Zitate aus einem Analysten-Bericht:
......The unrestricted cash position slipped by USD25 million to USD228 million, and most of this is at the airport division – true liquidity to service holding company debt appears particularly low, as does visibility. Hence consolidated run-rate leverage is up at 12.5x. Unfortunately the bonds are structurally subordinated to the operating company (construction/concessions/airports) where ~60% of the total debt resides.
Unsurprisingly, ICA announced it has hired Rothschild as financial advisor but denied plans for a bankruptcy filing. We take this with a grain of salt and believe a restructuring is not only almost inevitable but fairly imminent....
...We point to the upcoming November 29 coupon payment on the ICASA 24 as a potential trigger in the absence of timely asset sales and/or further liquidity declines since the end of September. In its press release ICA is guiding towards MXN2 billion asset sales (~USD 125 million) for the fourth quarter, a similar level to the third quarter. When pressed on the earnings conference call, management would not provide assurances coupons will be paid (they did not say they wouldn’t be, it is important to add)....
....The ICASA 24’s fell sharply on the results release and the Rothschild announcement. ICA is looking a lot like OAS in Brazil last year – overly levered, declining liquidity and an obvious problem in sourcing working capital. Also similar is the confusing, difficult to decipher balance sheet and how and where cash flows are streamed between the various entities. OAS also had multiple divisions and operating companies with the holding company debt at a significant disadvantage to that at the opco. levels. We believe eventual default for ICA is very probable and, were it to occur, we believe we will see another leg down in the trading price even after today’s ~12 point decline. Also ICA has all the characteristics typical of a very long and contentious work-out/restructuring, and the presence of Rothschild greatly concerns us given their very aggressive stance towards creditor rights during previous large corporate restructurings in Mexico.
......The unrestricted cash position slipped by USD25 million to USD228 million, and most of this is at the airport division – true liquidity to service holding company debt appears particularly low, as does visibility. Hence consolidated run-rate leverage is up at 12.5x. Unfortunately the bonds are structurally subordinated to the operating company (construction/concessions/airports) where ~60% of the total debt resides.
Unsurprisingly, ICA announced it has hired Rothschild as financial advisor but denied plans for a bankruptcy filing. We take this with a grain of salt and believe a restructuring is not only almost inevitable but fairly imminent....
...We point to the upcoming November 29 coupon payment on the ICASA 24 as a potential trigger in the absence of timely asset sales and/or further liquidity declines since the end of September. In its press release ICA is guiding towards MXN2 billion asset sales (~USD 125 million) for the fourth quarter, a similar level to the third quarter. When pressed on the earnings conference call, management would not provide assurances coupons will be paid (they did not say they wouldn’t be, it is important to add)....
....The ICASA 24’s fell sharply on the results release and the Rothschild announcement. ICA is looking a lot like OAS in Brazil last year – overly levered, declining liquidity and an obvious problem in sourcing working capital. Also similar is the confusing, difficult to decipher balance sheet and how and where cash flows are streamed between the various entities. OAS also had multiple divisions and operating companies with the holding company debt at a significant disadvantage to that at the opco. levels. We believe eventual default for ICA is very probable and, were it to occur, we believe we will see another leg down in the trading price even after today’s ~12 point decline. Also ICA has all the characteristics typical of a very long and contentious work-out/restructuring, and the presence of Rothschild greatly concerns us given their very aggressive stance towards creditor rights during previous large corporate restructurings in Mexico.
Zitierenfabriziof
Forumer storico
Il conto per me é salato però tra cedole rateo ,cambio e precedenti gain con lo stesso emittente riesco a imbellettare un po' il tutto
iguanito
Forumer storico
Meno male, si limita il danno. Mi sembra di capire, dall'andazzo di questi ultimi anni, che quando i valori di un corporate si assestano per un periodo di tempo abbastanza lungo al di sotto di un certo valore (diciamo orientativamente 50) le possibilità di sfangarla sono al lumicino. Sei d'accordo?Il conto per me é salato però tra cedole rateo ,cambio e precedenti gain con lo stesso emittente riesco a imbellettare un po' il tutto
fabriziof
Forumer storico
Non c'è una legge al riguardo,certo quei prezzi indicano problemi seri non ancora pienamente decantati e suscettibili di evoluzione in su o in giù diciamo con probabilità ancora abbastanza simile .
zoro-aster
Forumer storico
condivido sono dello stesso parere
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