Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1

[fabriziof]

recente report di s&p su wind .da notare il "negligible" recovery del pik
TEXT-S&P summary: Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA

 

[Zorba]

recente report di s&p su wind .da notare il "negligible" recovery del pik
TEXT-S&P summary: Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA

E' piu' o meno come la penso io. Interessante notare che le Senior Notes sono messe sullo stesso piano del debito bancario senior; io pensavo che fossero subordinate al debito bancario.

Recovery analysis

After the recent EUR500 million tap issue, we rate Wind's EUR3.43 billion senior secured credit facilities (of which EUR400 million is an RCF) and EUR3.2 billion-equivalent senior secured notes 'BB', which is one notch higher than the corporate credit rating on Wind. The recovery rating on the senior secured bank facilities and the notes is '2', indicating our expectation of substantial (70%-90%) recovery for senior secured lenders in an event of a payment default.

The issue rating on Wind Acquisition Finance S.A. (WAF)'s high-yield notes, guaranteed by Wind, is 'BB-', equal to the corporate credit rating on Wind. The recovery rating on this debt is '4', indicating our expectation of average (30%-50%) recovery for noteholders in an event of a payment default.

The issue rating on Wind's EUR750 million-equivalent PIK debt, guaranteed by WAHF, is 'B', two notches below the corporate credit rating on Wind. The recovery rating on the PIK debt is '6', indicating our expectation of negligible (0%-10%) recovery for noteholders in an event of a payment default.

Recovery prospects are supported by our view that Wind would be reorganized as a going concern in the event of a payment default. Furthermore, our recovery expectations are supported by a fairly comprehensive security package. The insolvency regime of Italy, which we consider to be relatively unfavorable for creditors, is a constraint on the recovery rating on the senior secured debt.

In order to determine recoveries, we simulate a default scenario. Under this scenario, we assume operational underperformance and significant leverage leading to an inability to refinance maturities in 2016. We estimate EBITDA at our hypothetical point of default to be about EUR1.54 billion.

We value the business as a going concern, given what we consider to be Wind's good market position in Italy, established network assets, and valuable customer base. At the hypothetical point of default, we value the company at about EUR8 billion.

After deducting enforcement costs of about EUR560 million, this leaves around EUR7.4 billion of value available for secured creditors. Recovery prospects for Wind's senior secured bank debt and WAF's senior secured notes reflect our view of the estimated value available and accessible to respective creditors. They also reflect the likelihood of insolvency proceedings being adversely influenced by Wind's main center of operations in Italy. In addition, the recovery ratings take into account our expectation of a fairly comprehensive security package, guarantees from the main holding and operating companies, and share pledges from material group operating companies. The recovery ratings on the existing senior and PIK debt also factor in our view of their contractual and structural subordination.

Coverage for the high-yield notes is highly sensitive to changes in valuation and priority debt assumptions, in our opinion. Given the limited documentary protection and significant amount of prior-ranking debt, recovery expectations might be vulnerable to potential downside.

Moreover, as part of our analysis, we assume that the merger between VimpelCom and Wind's owner Wind Telecom will have no effect on our waterfall assumptions. In particular, we assume that Wind will not provide any support to any of the debt instruments borrowed at VimpelCom and that Wind's debt will remain ring-fenced and nonrecourse.

 

[qquebec]

In order to determine recoveries, we simulate a default scenario. Under this scenario, we assume operational underperformance and significant leverage leading to an inability to refinance maturities in 2016. We estimate EBITDA at our hypothetical point of default to be about EUR1.54 billion.

L'ebitda dovrebbe mantenersi stabilmente sopra i 2 miliardi nel 2012-2013.

 

[Zorba]

L'ebitda dovrebbe mantenersi stabilmente sopra i 2 miliardi nel 2012-2013.

Certamente

 

[capt.harlock]

Clondalkin 81/83
HTM 98/102
Magyar Tel. 59/60,50
P. B. Aires 78/81

a occhio non la mollano a meno di 83 ma non ho provato

 

[qquebec]

Yioula

Nel secondo trimestre, hanno venduto i bond che si erano ricomprati nel 2009

 

[capt.harlock]

Nel secondo trimestre, hanno venduto i bond che si erano ricomprati nel 2009

che brutta cosa..dove l'hai letta?

 

[ferdo]

Nel secondo trimestre, hanno venduto i bond che si erano ricomprati nel 2009

segno che sono alla frutta
ma piuttosto, non è che l'han data in pegno per qualche finanziamento?

 

[qquebec]

che brutta cosa..dove l'hai letta?

... Nella semestrale

 

[qquebec]

segno che sono alla frutta
ma piuttosto, non è che l'han data in pegno per qualche finanziamento?

Credo che abbiano venduto per pagare la cedola di giugno. I conti, però, sono a posto, i ricavi sono cresciuti su base semestrale e anche gli stabilimenti in Grecia stanno dando buoni segnali di ripresa delle vendite (+10%). Si rischia di chiudere il 2012 addirittura con ricavi superiori al periodo ante crisi l'utile è ancora negativo, ma su base trimestrale è positivo di 1,4 milioni. Il problema è che il rapporto debt/ebitda è ancora alto, a 6 x, e nel primo semestre del 2012 ha inciso sul fatturato l'aumento del 5,5% del costo complessivo delle vendite (energia, materie prime, ecc.). Se il rapporto dovesse tornare sotto il 5%, il bond uscirebbe dall'area distressed in cui versa da tempo. I presupposti ci sono, speriamo che ce la facciano