fabriziof
Forumer storico
E mi piacerebbe anche capire perchè visto che i kazkommerts sono stabili
Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1
- Creatore Discussione TRADING_IDEAS
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
E mi piacerebbe anche capire perchè visto che i kazkommerts sono stabili
stefmas
Forumer storico
Secondo me poteva convenire uscire a 107 o sopra, ora che è scesa (io non sono uscito, l'ho vista già scesa
) non conviene.. C'è ovviamente da vedere come sarà la situazione al momento dello scambio (mi sembra si parli di Marzo), comunque la nuova obbligazione, anche se sarà più lunga, avrà comunque una cedola discreta (5%) e ne danno in concambio un po' più di nominale.Sicuramente ci hanno giocato un tiro non proprio piacevole, ma avrebbero potuto anche rimborsare alla pari l'obbligazione e non darci niente altro
bosmeld
Forumer storico
venduto le cliff che volevo dare in opa a 58
e cosi è finita.
Cliff mi ero accorto subito di blocco tender offer, gia ieri mattina presto, cosi avevo chiamato... Si vendevano a 62
purtroppo il bond era bloccato causa adesione opa, me lo hanno sbloccato da poco. Visto che il mio obiettivo era opa e non certo tenere questa carta lo ho venduto.
Buona fortuna a chi è dentro. Ho approfondito oggi un pochino visto che mi ero trovato il titolo sul groppone e prima del 2018 grossi rimobrsi non ci sono. Hanno il tempo di sperare in una ripresa dell'iron ore
e cosi è finita.
Cliff mi ero accorto subito di blocco tender offer, gia ieri mattina presto, cosi avevo chiamato... Si vendevano a 62
purtroppo il bond era bloccato causa adesione opa, me lo hanno sbloccato da poco. Visto che il mio obiettivo era opa e non certo tenere questa carta lo ho venduto.
Buona fortuna a chi è dentro. Ho approfondito oggi un pochino visto che mi ero trovato il titolo sul groppone e prima del 2018 grossi rimobrsi non ci sono. Hanno il tempo di sperare in una ripresa dell'iron ore
Ultima modifica:
Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Cliffs' ratings -- CFR to Ba3; outlook negative
Global Credit Research - 04 Dec 2014
Approximately $3 billion of debt downgraded
New York, December 04, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service downgraded Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (Cliffs) Corporate Family Rating (CFR) and Probability of Default Rating to Ba3 and Ba3-PD respectively. At the same time the rating on Cliffs' senior unsecured notes and senior unsecured shelf were downgraded to B1 and (P) B1 respectively from Ba2 and (P)Ba2. The outlook is negative. This concludes the review initiated on October 17, 2014. The speculative liquidity rating remains unchanged at SGL-3
Downgrades:
..Issuer: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.
.... Probability of Default Rating, Downgraded to Ba3-PD from Ba2-PD
.... Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2
....Multiple Seniority Shelf (Local Currency) Feb 11, 2016, Downgraded to (P)B1, LGD4 from (P)Ba2, LGD4
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture (Local Currency), Downgraded to B1, LGD4 from Ba2, LGD4
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.
....Outlook, Changed To Negative
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade in the CFR to Ba3 reflects Cliffs' weak debt protection metrics as evidenced by the EBIT/interest ratio of 1.1x for the twelve months ended September 30, 2014 and increasing leverage position. The downgrade also reflects our expectations as to the challenges and costs the company faces in restructuring its business footprint to a US centric focus and execution challenges on selling the balance of its US coal operations, or returning them to a break even position at best, and its Asia Pacific iron ore operations. The downgrade also considers the high level of debt relative to the significantly reduced asset base and contracting business footprint. The significant drop in iron ore prices and expectation for continued low prices through 2015 (current sensitivities are for a $75/MT - $85/MT for 62% iron -- China) is also a factor although price realizations at Cliffs' US iron ore operations (USIO) are not directly correlated to movement in the seaborne market, the company produces pellets, and the contract nature of this segment provides better visibility as to future performance. Nonetheless, we expect metrics to remain stressed with leverage, as measured by the debt/EBITDA ratio in the 5x -- 6x range (including Moody's standard adjustments). Should seaborne prices remain below $70/MT, leverage could be higher than 6x should the current debt levels be maintained.
The downgrade of the senior unsecured notes to B1 reflects their weaker position in the capital structure under Moody's Loss Given Default Methodology following the granting of security to Cliffs' $1.125 million credit facility, which includes a secured interest in accounts receivable and inventory.
The Ba3 CFR considers Cliffs strong position in the US iron ore market and its importance to the steel customers with which it does business. While the structure of the contracts provides a floor to price realizations in a downward trending iron ore price environment of around $85/90 per ton according to the company's IODEX price ($70/ton) sensitivities, earnings and metrics at these levels would nonetheless be pressured.
From January through November 2014 average seaborne iron ore prices collapsed by 43% to an average low in November of approximately $73/metric ton (MT - fines-62%Fe China) and evidencing a continued downward trend. Given the slower steel production growth rates in China (2.1% through October), and weak expectations for 2015 production levels as indicated in the World Steel Organizations October 2014 outlook publication, weakening economic indicators in Europe, and continued delivery of increased tons into an oversupplied iron ore market, we see no catalyst for meaningful improvement in seaborne iron ore prices, which are currently fluctuating around $69/70MT. However the importance of the contract based nature of Cliffs' USIO operations is evidenced in that during the first nine months of 2014, the realized price declined roughly 7.6% as compared with a seaborne price drop of approximately 36%. The seaborne coking coal market faces comparable pressures with the 4th quarter prices rolling over at about $119/MT, relatively unchanged from the prior two quarters. The roll over prices for the first quarter of 2015 are likely to be no better with risk to the downside. However, Cliffs' is looking to exit the coal business and has announced the sale of its Logan County metallurgical coal assets for $175 million.
Cliffs' Asia Pacific operations and Eastern Canadian operations are more exposed to price movements in the seaborne market. We expect operating earnings at the Asia Pacific operations to be flat to modestly negative, but anticipate that this segment will continue to be cash flow generative. As part of its strategic refocusing, the company has announced that it is pursuing exit options for the Eastern Canadian operations, which could include the closure of Bloom Lake. While this would eliminate the ongoing losses being experienced, closure costs are estimated to be in the $650 million to $700 million range spread over a five year period. A majority of these costs would relate to the take or pay contract with the railroad for minimum shipment levels.
The SGL -- 3 speculative grade liquidity rating reflects our expectation for decreasing cash flow generation.
The negative outlook reflects the ongoing challenges facing Cliffs as it seeks to implement its business restructuring plan and return to its core US iron ore operations. The outlook also captures the uncertainty relating to the outcome of the review of exit options for the Eastern Canadian iron ore operations and potential costs associated. Also captured in the outlook is the potential for further deterioration in metrics should seaborne prices be sustained below $70/MT notwithstanding the floor benefit provided by the contracts in the USIO operations.
Ratings are unlikely to move up over the next twelve to eighteen months. However, the ratings could be favorably impacted should EBIT/interest be sustained at 4x, debt/EBITDA be sustained at no more than 3.5x and (operating cash flow less dividends)/debt be at least 25%. Downward rating movement could result should EBIT/interest continue to be less than 3x, debt/EBITDA continue to track at more than 4x and (operating cash flow less dividends)/debt be less than 15%.
Headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, Cliffs is the largest iron ore producer in North America and is also involved in the metallurgical coal business through its coking coal mining complexes and to a lesser extent in thermal coal. In addition, the company participates in the international iron ore markets through its subsidiaries in Australia and Canada. For the twelve months ended September 30, 2014, the company had revenues of $4.9 billion.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Mining Industry published in August 2014. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Global Credit Research - 04 Dec 2014
Approximately $3 billion of debt downgraded
New York, December 04, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service downgraded Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (Cliffs) Corporate Family Rating (CFR) and Probability of Default Rating to Ba3 and Ba3-PD respectively. At the same time the rating on Cliffs' senior unsecured notes and senior unsecured shelf were downgraded to B1 and (P) B1 respectively from Ba2 and (P)Ba2. The outlook is negative. This concludes the review initiated on October 17, 2014. The speculative liquidity rating remains unchanged at SGL-3
Downgrades:
..Issuer: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.
.... Probability of Default Rating, Downgraded to Ba3-PD from Ba2-PD
.... Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2
....Multiple Seniority Shelf (Local Currency) Feb 11, 2016, Downgraded to (P)B1, LGD4 from (P)Ba2, LGD4
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture (Local Currency), Downgraded to B1, LGD4 from Ba2, LGD4
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.
....Outlook, Changed To Negative
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade in the CFR to Ba3 reflects Cliffs' weak debt protection metrics as evidenced by the EBIT/interest ratio of 1.1x for the twelve months ended September 30, 2014 and increasing leverage position. The downgrade also reflects our expectations as to the challenges and costs the company faces in restructuring its business footprint to a US centric focus and execution challenges on selling the balance of its US coal operations, or returning them to a break even position at best, and its Asia Pacific iron ore operations. The downgrade also considers the high level of debt relative to the significantly reduced asset base and contracting business footprint. The significant drop in iron ore prices and expectation for continued low prices through 2015 (current sensitivities are for a $75/MT - $85/MT for 62% iron -- China) is also a factor although price realizations at Cliffs' US iron ore operations (USIO) are not directly correlated to movement in the seaborne market, the company produces pellets, and the contract nature of this segment provides better visibility as to future performance. Nonetheless, we expect metrics to remain stressed with leverage, as measured by the debt/EBITDA ratio in the 5x -- 6x range (including Moody's standard adjustments). Should seaborne prices remain below $70/MT, leverage could be higher than 6x should the current debt levels be maintained.
The downgrade of the senior unsecured notes to B1 reflects their weaker position in the capital structure under Moody's Loss Given Default Methodology following the granting of security to Cliffs' $1.125 million credit facility, which includes a secured interest in accounts receivable and inventory.
The Ba3 CFR considers Cliffs strong position in the US iron ore market and its importance to the steel customers with which it does business. While the structure of the contracts provides a floor to price realizations in a downward trending iron ore price environment of around $85/90 per ton according to the company's IODEX price ($70/ton) sensitivities, earnings and metrics at these levels would nonetheless be pressured.
From January through November 2014 average seaborne iron ore prices collapsed by 43% to an average low in November of approximately $73/metric ton (MT - fines-62%Fe China) and evidencing a continued downward trend. Given the slower steel production growth rates in China (2.1% through October), and weak expectations for 2015 production levels as indicated in the World Steel Organizations October 2014 outlook publication, weakening economic indicators in Europe, and continued delivery of increased tons into an oversupplied iron ore market, we see no catalyst for meaningful improvement in seaborne iron ore prices, which are currently fluctuating around $69/70MT. However the importance of the contract based nature of Cliffs' USIO operations is evidenced in that during the first nine months of 2014, the realized price declined roughly 7.6% as compared with a seaborne price drop of approximately 36%. The seaborne coking coal market faces comparable pressures with the 4th quarter prices rolling over at about $119/MT, relatively unchanged from the prior two quarters. The roll over prices for the first quarter of 2015 are likely to be no better with risk to the downside. However, Cliffs' is looking to exit the coal business and has announced the sale of its Logan County metallurgical coal assets for $175 million.
Cliffs' Asia Pacific operations and Eastern Canadian operations are more exposed to price movements in the seaborne market. We expect operating earnings at the Asia Pacific operations to be flat to modestly negative, but anticipate that this segment will continue to be cash flow generative. As part of its strategic refocusing, the company has announced that it is pursuing exit options for the Eastern Canadian operations, which could include the closure of Bloom Lake. While this would eliminate the ongoing losses being experienced, closure costs are estimated to be in the $650 million to $700 million range spread over a five year period. A majority of these costs would relate to the take or pay contract with the railroad for minimum shipment levels.
The SGL -- 3 speculative grade liquidity rating reflects our expectation for decreasing cash flow generation.
The negative outlook reflects the ongoing challenges facing Cliffs as it seeks to implement its business restructuring plan and return to its core US iron ore operations. The outlook also captures the uncertainty relating to the outcome of the review of exit options for the Eastern Canadian iron ore operations and potential costs associated. Also captured in the outlook is the potential for further deterioration in metrics should seaborne prices be sustained below $70/MT notwithstanding the floor benefit provided by the contracts in the USIO operations.
Ratings are unlikely to move up over the next twelve to eighteen months. However, the ratings could be favorably impacted should EBIT/interest be sustained at 4x, debt/EBITDA be sustained at no more than 3.5x and (operating cash flow less dividends)/debt be at least 25%. Downward rating movement could result should EBIT/interest continue to be less than 3x, debt/EBITDA continue to track at more than 4x and (operating cash flow less dividends)/debt be less than 15%.
Headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, Cliffs is the largest iron ore producer in North America and is also involved in the metallurgical coal business through its coking coal mining complexes and to a lesser extent in thermal coal. In addition, the company participates in the international iron ore markets through its subsidiaries in Australia and Canada. For the twelve months ended September 30, 2014, the company had revenues of $4.9 billion.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Mining Industry published in August 2014. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
NoWay
It's time to play the game
qquebec
Super Moderator
zoro-aster
Forumer storico
EKOSEM 18
arrivato cedolozzo per noi... e latte a Putin
arrivato cedolozzo per noi... e latte a Putin
fabriziof
Forumer storico
- Stato
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Obbligazioni societarie
HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate, vol.3
