fabriziof
Forumer storico
ho incrementato 10k
Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1
- Creatore Discussione TRADING_IDEAS
- Data di Inizio
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gualberto
Charlie don't Surf
prezzo?
fabriziof
Forumer storico
64 una decina di giorni fa,ma è scesa e poi risalita
gualberto
Charlie don't Surf
prese a 62
Myskin
Forumer stoico
cos'è quel "Termination by Debitor" che vedo nelle clausole?
Magician
Forumer attivo
Ciao, sempre dalla stessa fonte che avevo postato.
Negli ultimi mesi aveva predicato prudenza su TAKKO
* German discount retailer Takko reported their 2Q15 results today with sales of €282.1m (-7.2% yoy, -10.3% LFL) and adj EBITDA of €27m vs €39.4m expected vs €41.9m yoy.
* We were the highest end of expects, despite being bearish, but the lowest was low 30s.
Where do we start?
The bad news
* LFLs have been very weak. Of course the weather had a part to play (warm Sept and Oct in Europe adversely affecting Autumn sales), but if we think back to management’s strategy of expanding into East Europe, this is clearly not working. LFL’s here were -10% yoy vs -9.9% in Germany.
* GPMs and EBITDA adjustments: heavy markdowns are continuing. In the UK, where we had poor weather also, all the retailers we follow held onto their margins as the street was quite disciplined. Clearly Takko is underperforming the market. These markdowns led to €5.9m adjustments for inventory re-valuation. Outside our view of disagreeing with such adjustments, these were zero last quarter and one could have argued mgt’s “key initiatives and projects” were working.
* East Europe: expansion into Poland, Romania, Russia etc is looking like a poor decision. What value can one assign to these divisions if current trading continues? The macro outlook offers scant support at this point in time. Also, mgt has guided to a negative €6-7m effect on higher minimum wages in Germany at €8.50 per hour. Contagion remains a risk for other countries, in our view.
The Good news
* Liquidity: it’s adequate albeit decreasing, and inventory write downs has improved working capital and liquidity this quarter. Cash and RCF headroom of €98.1m will keep them going through 2015. However, we suspect mgt will lower the outlook and guidance now.
* Re-created: at 50c, you re-create the leverage at 3.1x based on LTM EBITDA of €89.7m. However, we have to subtract the wages affect and then somehow ascertain where the trough in current trading is. The going forward run-rate is probably 3.8-4x (at 50c), which in theory, would be covered by an EV of 4x (distressed multiple for retailers). Upside appears limited from this starting point, in our view.
So what is the catalyst?
* With no short term debt maturities, it appears the catalyst is an EBITDA grinding lower. We see a breakeven EBITDA of €75m (less capex €20m, cash interest €55m). The trigger is probably 2016, as working capital and capex could be cut to the bone. It is not a viable LT solution, but in terms of catalysts, we see this in 2016 which means you should get at least one year of interest before talk reverts to a restructuring.
* At the risk of harping on about the EBITDA adjustments, any sale or restructuring is unlikely to look upon these favourably. With an outlook far from certain, and 2016 the year when interest cannot be paid in full if current trends continue, we continue to think this one belongs to the turnaround specialists. Per our preview, the recovery value at 16% means we see limited upside.
Negli ultimi mesi aveva predicato prudenza su TAKKO
* German discount retailer Takko reported their 2Q15 results today with sales of €282.1m (-7.2% yoy, -10.3% LFL) and adj EBITDA of €27m vs €39.4m expected vs €41.9m yoy.
* We were the highest end of expects, despite being bearish, but the lowest was low 30s.
Where do we start?
The bad news
* LFLs have been very weak. Of course the weather had a part to play (warm Sept and Oct in Europe adversely affecting Autumn sales), but if we think back to management’s strategy of expanding into East Europe, this is clearly not working. LFL’s here were -10% yoy vs -9.9% in Germany.
* GPMs and EBITDA adjustments: heavy markdowns are continuing. In the UK, where we had poor weather also, all the retailers we follow held onto their margins as the street was quite disciplined. Clearly Takko is underperforming the market. These markdowns led to €5.9m adjustments for inventory re-valuation. Outside our view of disagreeing with such adjustments, these were zero last quarter and one could have argued mgt’s “key initiatives and projects” were working.
* East Europe: expansion into Poland, Romania, Russia etc is looking like a poor decision. What value can one assign to these divisions if current trading continues? The macro outlook offers scant support at this point in time. Also, mgt has guided to a negative €6-7m effect on higher minimum wages in Germany at €8.50 per hour. Contagion remains a risk for other countries, in our view.
The Good news
* Liquidity: it’s adequate albeit decreasing, and inventory write downs has improved working capital and liquidity this quarter. Cash and RCF headroom of €98.1m will keep them going through 2015. However, we suspect mgt will lower the outlook and guidance now.
* Re-created: at 50c, you re-create the leverage at 3.1x based on LTM EBITDA of €89.7m. However, we have to subtract the wages affect and then somehow ascertain where the trough in current trading is. The going forward run-rate is probably 3.8-4x (at 50c), which in theory, would be covered by an EV of 4x (distressed multiple for retailers). Upside appears limited from this starting point, in our view.
So what is the catalyst?
* With no short term debt maturities, it appears the catalyst is an EBITDA grinding lower. We see a breakeven EBITDA of €75m (less capex €20m, cash interest €55m). The trigger is probably 2016, as working capital and capex could be cut to the bone. It is not a viable LT solution, but in terms of catalysts, we see this in 2016 which means you should get at least one year of interest before talk reverts to a restructuring.
* At the risk of harping on about the EBITDA adjustments, any sale or restructuring is unlikely to look upon these favourably. With an outlook far from certain, and 2016 the year when interest cannot be paid in full if current trends continue, we continue to think this one belongs to the turnaround specialists. Per our preview, the recovery value at 16% means we see limited upside.
warren baffo
Forumer storico
Renewal of cautionary announcement, further update on the curatorship of African Bank and proposed restructuring measures | African Bank
per chi fosse interessato a African Bank, un aggiornamento sulla curatela
per chi fosse interessato a African Bank, un aggiornamento sulla curatela
captain sparrow
Forumer storico
edcon
qualcuno ha notizie fresche? se non ricordo male stavano cercando un partner bancario per il credito al consumo. si sa se hanno concluso qualcosa?
qualcuno ha notizie fresche? se non ricordo male stavano cercando un partner bancario per il credito al consumo. si sa se hanno concluso qualcosa?
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
Puoi dire la fonte?
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