Moody's downgrades Cliffs' ratings (CFR to B1), assigns new ratings: outlook stable
Global Credit Research - 09 Mar 2015
Approximately $3 billion of debt affected
New York, March 09, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service downgraded Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (Cliffs) Corporate Family Rating (CFR) and Probability of Default Rating to B1 and B1-PD respectively. Moody's also downgraded the ratings on Cliffs' senior unsecured notes and senior unsecured shelf to B3 and (P) B3 respectively from B1 and (P)B1 respectively. At the same time, Moody's assigned a Ba2 rating to the $500 million First Lien senior secured notes due 2020 and a B1 rating to the up to $1.25 billion Second Lien Senior secured notes due 2020. The outlook is stable. The speculative liquidity rating was upgraded to SGL-2 from SGL-3 .
Downgrades:
..Issuer: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.
.... Probability of Default Rating, Downgraded to B1-PD from Ba3-PD
.... Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to B1 from Ba3
....Multiple Seniority Shelf (Local Currency) due 2016, Downgraded to (P)B3 from (P)B1
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture (Local Currency), Downgraded to B3, LGD5 from B1, LGD4
Upgrades:
..Issuer: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.
.... Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating, Upgraded to SGL-2 from SGL-3
Assignments:
..Issuer: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.
....Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture (Local Currency), Assigned B1, LGD3
....Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture (Local Currency), Assigned Ba2, LGD2
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.
....Outlook, Changed To Stable From Negative
RATINGS RATIONALE
"The downgrade in the CFR to B1 reflects expectations for a weaker performance in the Asia Pacific iron ore (APIO) segment, which has a greater exposure to the movement of iron ore prices in the seaborne market", said Carol Cowan, Moody's Senior Vice President. Prices in this market remain under pressure, and have recently dipped sub $60/ton (62%Fe). The weaker growth rates in steel production in China, together with the ongoing iron ore supply/demand imbalance will keep seaborne prices at low levels and continue to impact consolidated performance. Although production curtailments and closures are beginning to take effect, the increased supply of low cost iron ore from Australia and Brazil is expected to result in a low price environment in the seaborne market through 2016. While the depreciation of the Australian dollar will positively impact the cost position of the APIO segment, it will not be sufficient to offset the level of price impairment. Although APIO's EBITDA is expected to be breakeven to marginally positive at a $60 (62%Fe) seaborne price, this segment is not expected to be a cash drain.
The B1 CFR considers the relative stability of performance in the US iron ore operations given the contract nature of this business. Although the contracts have varying price mechanisms, EBITDA, at a $60 (62% Fe seaborne price) is expected to be in a range of $550 to $600 million. With the decrease in oil prices and energy costs, Cliffs cost position is expected to be favorably impacted. Assuming breakeven performance in the APIO segment and the coal segment, this would result in leverage, as measured by the debt/EBITDA ratio of close to 6x. In addition, the rating reflects the symbiotic relationship between Cliffs and the US steel mills, which cannot economically source their iron ore requirements from overseas producers.
The rating also incorporates the increased liquidity provided by the refinancing undertaken by Cliffs. Pro forma for the issuance of the first lien notes and the second lien exchange notes, cash is expected to increase to approximately $790 million from the $291 million position at December 31, 2014. Upon the execution of the $550 million asset backed credit facility (ABL), liquidity is expected to be in the range of $1.3 billion. Although drawings under the ABL are expected due to seasonality in shipments, Cliffs is expected to be free cash flow break even to modestly positive in 2015
The downgrade of the senior unsecured notes to B3 reflects their weaker position in the capital structure under Moody's Loss Given Default Methodology following the issuance of the first and second lien notes as well as the ABL facility. The first lien notes are secured by plant, property and equipment, including mineral rights while the second lien notes have the same security from a second lien position. The ABL is secured by receivables and inventory.
The SGL-2 speculative grade liquidity rating reflects our expectation for breakeven to modestly positive free cash flow over the next twelve to eighteen months, the strong cash position post the refinancing and the absence of financial maintenance covenants.
The stable outlook reflects our expectations that the company will be able to generate EBITDA in the range of $550 to $600 million, be at least free cash flow breakeven and maintain a solid liquidity position bolstered by a strong cash position.
Ratings are unlikely to move up over the next twelve to eighteen months. However, the ratings could be favorably impacted should EBIT/interest be sustained at a minimum of 4x, debt/EBITDA be sustained at no more than 3.5x and (operating cash flow less dividends)/debt be at least 20%. Downward rating movement could result should EBIT/interest continue to be less than 2.5x, debt/EBITDA not evidence a trend to no more than 4.5x and (operating cash flow less dividends)/debt be less than 15%.
Headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, Cliffs is the largest iron ore producer in North America and is also involved in the metallurgical coal business through its coking coal mining complexes. In addition, the company participates in the international iron ore markets through its subsidiary in Australia. Cliffs has permanently closed its Wabush iron ore operations in Canada and the operations at Bloom Lake are being restructured under the Canadian Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act. For the twelve months ended December 31, 2014, the company had revenues of $4.6 billion.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Mining Industry published in August 2014. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on
www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.