ho postato i risultati stamane
Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 2
- Creatore Discussione gionmorg
- Data di Inizio
angy2008
Forumer storico
avete sott'occhio dei bond Sky?
fedro10
è la somma che fa il totale...
mi è scappato sorry
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
Analisi corretta. Ma il dividendo e' sospeso a meno che tu intenda un taglio del 100%.
Qualcuno ha una view sui bond?
gualberto
Charlie don't Surf
Frontier Communications Accedes To Reality And Stops Paying A Common Dividend
Era ora...
potrebbe essere positiva per noi la decisione di non pagare dividendi
Kim
Forumer attivo
Myskin
Forumer stoico
io invece credo di dimezzare la mia esposizione, avevo già pronto l'ordine di vendita qualora un determinato livello dei prezzi fosse stato abbattuto...ora, quel livello non è stato raggiunto, buon per me certo, non posso negare però che l'investimento in ottica di immediato ritorno non ha dato i suoi frutti
il secondo errore che potrei fare e quello di insistere: le case nate male restano tali c'è poco da dire
chiaro che gli azionisti sono sempre i primi a capitolare, se servisse essere soddisfatti della liquidità drenata magari a favore del riacquisto obbligazioni (come hanno peraltro già fatto) o che verrà esercitata l'opzione su una convertibile direi sarebbe un po' nasconderci sotto la corta coperta di tranquillità effimera
anche se la leva finanziaria si dimostra sostanzialmente stabile temo che queste misure contra l'azionariato rivelino delle difficoltà di accesso ai normali canali di rifinanziamento: e siamo al top di un ciclo positivo dei mercati con liquidità a tasso zero ed abbondante.
il secondo errore che potrei fare e quello di insistere: le case nate male restano tali c'è poco da dire
chiaro che gli azionisti sono sempre i primi a capitolare, se servisse essere soddisfatti della liquidità drenata magari a favore del riacquisto obbligazioni (come hanno peraltro già fatto) o che verrà esercitata l'opzione su una convertibile direi sarebbe un po' nasconderci sotto la corta coperta di tranquillità effimera
anche se la leva finanziaria si dimostra sostanzialmente stabile temo che queste misure contra l'azionariato rivelino delle difficoltà di accesso ai normali canali di rifinanziamento: e siamo al top di un ciclo positivo dei mercati con liquidità a tasso zero ed abbondante.
FRONTIER TELECOMMUNICATIONS
A QUICK VIEW ON THE STRUCTURE POST NUMBERS
TRADE DETAILS
Frontier Telecommunications (FTR), the US cable and communications company, reported 4Q17 and FY17 numbers yesterday post market close. Frontier Communications bonds have been under pressure since hitting a high in August 2016. FTR 11% 2025, just to give an example, traded close to 110% in August 2016. By beginning of 2018 they traded in the low 70s. This move was mostly driven by the high debt load of the company following some meaningful acquisitions and the secular decline of the business.
Bonds initially reacted positively on yesterday’s numbers and were up 2-3pts on the back of better than expected numbers (vs. low expectations) and the announcement of the management to suspend dividend payments. While suspended dividends should help in the short term for meeting short-dated maturities we think it takes a bit more to repair the balance sheet longer term, given the material debt load (USD 17bn) and a leverage ratio of 4.59x.
The most important metric, subscriber churn rate, improved slightly and is trending in the right direction but remains at elevated levels. EBITDA was reported in line with guidance and the net loss for the quarter of USD 1.03bn was negatively affected by a goodwill impairment, partially offset by a tax benefit.
Results have been taken as a positive by fixed income investors and the trend is pointing towards the right direction. Nevertheless we think that Frontier is still suffering from losing subscribers in their Legacy markets, elevated debt levels and a secular decline of the business they are operating in. We think that Frontier may use current tailwind in order to start refinancing their short term maturities. According to market sources, FTR may come with a secured deal, potentially 2020 or 2021 maturity in order to refinance shorter dated bonds. Should this refinancing turn out to be successful and given that FTR is a “quarter-to-quarter” story, we are becoming increasingly positive on the short-end of the maturity structure while turning more negative on the longer end. While Frontier’s debt profile appears to be manageable until 2020, the company will have to refinance USD 922mm in 2020 and almost USD 3bn in 2021.
Conclusion:
We think that Frontier should be able to refinance short-dated maturities following recent numbers. Capex as well as debt maturities are manageable in the near-term and should be covered by free cash flow and the potentially upcoming refinancing. However, we would use current strength and the positive tone in order to sell bonds with maturity beyond 2021, given the potentially new layer of secured debt, high indebtedness, a turnaround story with some question marks and the debt wall being hit by 2020 with refinancing likely to become an issue unless business turns around dramatically.
A QUICK VIEW ON THE STRUCTURE POST NUMBERS
TRADE DETAILS
Frontier Telecommunications (FTR), the US cable and communications company, reported 4Q17 and FY17 numbers yesterday post market close. Frontier Communications bonds have been under pressure since hitting a high in August 2016. FTR 11% 2025, just to give an example, traded close to 110% in August 2016. By beginning of 2018 they traded in the low 70s. This move was mostly driven by the high debt load of the company following some meaningful acquisitions and the secular decline of the business.
Bonds initially reacted positively on yesterday’s numbers and were up 2-3pts on the back of better than expected numbers (vs. low expectations) and the announcement of the management to suspend dividend payments. While suspended dividends should help in the short term for meeting short-dated maturities we think it takes a bit more to repair the balance sheet longer term, given the material debt load (USD 17bn) and a leverage ratio of 4.59x.
The most important metric, subscriber churn rate, improved slightly and is trending in the right direction but remains at elevated levels. EBITDA was reported in line with guidance and the net loss for the quarter of USD 1.03bn was negatively affected by a goodwill impairment, partially offset by a tax benefit.
Results have been taken as a positive by fixed income investors and the trend is pointing towards the right direction. Nevertheless we think that Frontier is still suffering from losing subscribers in their Legacy markets, elevated debt levels and a secular decline of the business they are operating in. We think that Frontier may use current tailwind in order to start refinancing their short term maturities. According to market sources, FTR may come with a secured deal, potentially 2020 or 2021 maturity in order to refinance shorter dated bonds. Should this refinancing turn out to be successful and given that FTR is a “quarter-to-quarter” story, we are becoming increasingly positive on the short-end of the maturity structure while turning more negative on the longer end. While Frontier’s debt profile appears to be manageable until 2020, the company will have to refinance USD 922mm in 2020 and almost USD 3bn in 2021.
Conclusion:
We think that Frontier should be able to refinance short-dated maturities following recent numbers. Capex as well as debt maturities are manageable in the near-term and should be covered by free cash flow and the potentially upcoming refinancing. However, we would use current strength and the positive tone in order to sell bonds with maturity beyond 2021, given the potentially new layer of secured debt, high indebtedness, a turnaround story with some question marks and the debt wall being hit by 2020 with refinancing likely to become an issue unless business turns around dramatically.
captain sparrow
Forumer storico
Ho la 21 e sono sotto al prezzo di carico di 4/5 punti. Se arriva in pareggio vendo e non ci penso più. Comunque penso che non pagare dividendo sia sicuramente positivo per i bond. Piu soldi in cassa, meglio per noi bondisti
IL MARATONETA
Forumer storico
Ho fatto il tuo stesso ragionamento e ho venduto a dicembre i due titoli Frontier che avevo, anche se in discreta perdita
