Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 2
- Creatore Discussione gionmorg
- Data di Inizio
fabriziof
Forumer storico
Perchè?
nik.sala
Money Never Sleeps
Su tlx ?
Io ho preso sul finale @ 77.50 dopo le news dagli USA.
Non un gran prezzo ma non c’era molta scelta era l’unico ask...
Maio72
Follow the white rabbit
Benché l'azienda abbia avuto una bella botta dal lockdown per il Coronavirus è comunque una Ba1 con fresco downgrade da Baa3. Se segue la logica d'acquisto della Federal Reserve che ha portato alla impennata della Ford ed in misura minore anche di altri bond Usa deve salire di quotazione. Comunque un rendimento netto a scadenza del 13% lo vedo eccessivo per la qualità dell'emittente. Per me deve scendere di yield e quindi salire di prezzo. Ci credo. Chiaramente è solo un mio ragionamento.
salice02
Forumer storico
bia06
Listen other's viewpoint avoid conflicts & wars.
ABN AMRO Global Daily Insight
9 April 2020
How high will US unemployment get?
US Macro: Unemployment to peak at 18%, before rapidly easing – Initial jobless claims continue to rise by eye-watering numbers each week, with claims rising by another 6.6mn last week, following a similar rise the week earlier. This brings the total newly unemployed since the covid-19 lockdowns to around 17mn. Our bottom-up analysis of the labour market suggests a further 7-8mn could be filing new jobless claims over the coming weeks, which would lead to a peak in the unemployment rate of 18% in April or May (depending on how quickly new claims are made or processed). After peaking, we expect unemployment to decline almost as rapidly as it rose for a time, but settling at a level well above the pre-pandemic low – we expect it to end the year at 9.4%, almost 5pp higher than February’s 3.5%. Such a dramatically higher rate of unemployment will inevitably weigh on consumption and slow the pace of recovery in the US. In the first chart below, we set out some scenarios for the unemployment rate together with our base case (for more on our base case scenario assumptions, see here).
Figure 1: Unemployment under different scenarios
Unemployment rate, %
Source: Transport Security Administration, ABN AMRO Group Economics
Most newly unemployed appear to be furloughs – As with the broader economy, there are extremely wide uncertainty bands around our forecast. Aside from uncertainty around how controlled the pandemic becomes and the phasing of reopening the economy, there is significant uncertainty over how many of the layoffs that do happen prove to be temporary, and can quickly and easily return to work. Almost all of the 1 million layoffs in the March nonpayrolls data were ‘furloughed’ – or temporarily laid off (see second chart). Indeed, the proportion of such furloughs in total unemployed is by far the highest on record, which goes back to 1967. This suggests employers are – at least for now – seeing this downturn as very much temporary in nature, and that workers can quickly return to their previous jobs once restrictions are lifted. We also do not know how (un)successful the $2.1trn CARES Act will be in incentivising companies to keep employees on payroll that would otherwise have been laid off. The longer restrictions remain in place, and the longer it takes to get fiscal support to companies in distress, the greater the permanent ‘hysteresis’ type effects will be on the economy. (Bill Diviney)
Figure 2: Share of furloughs in unemployed at all-time high
% share of unemployed
Source: Transport Security Administration, ABN AMRO Group Economics
Fed View: Lending programmes are important, but no panacea – In the latest unscheduled policy announcement, the Fed published details of a $2.3trn lending programme today. This is not exactly new, but rather it fleshes out the details of how the Fed will ‘lever up’ funds from the Treasury under the CARES Act fiscal package passed by Congress last month, as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had alluded to some weeks ago. The core components are: 1. Main Street (small business) Lending Program - $600bn (with $75bn Treasury equity); 2. Expanding support for capital market lending to $850bn (with $85bn of Treasury equity). Note that under this programme, the Fed will buy not only IG corporate bonds, but also bonds that were rated IG on 22 March but have since been downgraded; 3. Municipal Liquidity Facility - $500bn (with $35bn Treasury equity). As we discussed before, such fiscal and monetary supports are providing a vital lifeline for businesses to weather the covid-19 downturn, but there remains considerable uncertainty over how successful the package of measures will be in enabling businesses to quickly restart activity once restrictions are lifted. There are operational challenges to rolling out lending on such a massive scale and in a such a short time period. Further, if restrictions on activity prove to be more prolonged, or if the government fails to explain a clear exit strategy from lockdowns, some may judge that their business models are no longer viable, no matter how much easy credit is available to them. (Bill Diviney)
9 April 2020
How high will US unemployment get?
US Macro: Unemployment to peak at 18%, before rapidly easing – Initial jobless claims continue to rise by eye-watering numbers each week, with claims rising by another 6.6mn last week, following a similar rise the week earlier. This brings the total newly unemployed since the covid-19 lockdowns to around 17mn. Our bottom-up analysis of the labour market suggests a further 7-8mn could be filing new jobless claims over the coming weeks, which would lead to a peak in the unemployment rate of 18% in April or May (depending on how quickly new claims are made or processed). After peaking, we expect unemployment to decline almost as rapidly as it rose for a time, but settling at a level well above the pre-pandemic low – we expect it to end the year at 9.4%, almost 5pp higher than February’s 3.5%. Such a dramatically higher rate of unemployment will inevitably weigh on consumption and slow the pace of recovery in the US. In the first chart below, we set out some scenarios for the unemployment rate together with our base case (for more on our base case scenario assumptions, see here).
Figure 1: Unemployment under different scenarios
Unemployment rate, %
Source: Transport Security Administration, ABN AMRO Group Economics
Most newly unemployed appear to be furloughs – As with the broader economy, there are extremely wide uncertainty bands around our forecast. Aside from uncertainty around how controlled the pandemic becomes and the phasing of reopening the economy, there is significant uncertainty over how many of the layoffs that do happen prove to be temporary, and can quickly and easily return to work. Almost all of the 1 million layoffs in the March nonpayrolls data were ‘furloughed’ – or temporarily laid off (see second chart). Indeed, the proportion of such furloughs in total unemployed is by far the highest on record, which goes back to 1967. This suggests employers are – at least for now – seeing this downturn as very much temporary in nature, and that workers can quickly return to their previous jobs once restrictions are lifted. We also do not know how (un)successful the $2.1trn CARES Act will be in incentivising companies to keep employees on payroll that would otherwise have been laid off. The longer restrictions remain in place, and the longer it takes to get fiscal support to companies in distress, the greater the permanent ‘hysteresis’ type effects will be on the economy. (Bill Diviney)
Figure 2: Share of furloughs in unemployed at all-time high
% share of unemployed
Source: Transport Security Administration, ABN AMRO Group Economics
Fed View: Lending programmes are important, but no panacea – In the latest unscheduled policy announcement, the Fed published details of a $2.3trn lending programme today. This is not exactly new, but rather it fleshes out the details of how the Fed will ‘lever up’ funds from the Treasury under the CARES Act fiscal package passed by Congress last month, as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had alluded to some weeks ago. The core components are: 1. Main Street (small business) Lending Program - $600bn (with $75bn Treasury equity); 2. Expanding support for capital market lending to $850bn (with $85bn of Treasury equity). Note that under this programme, the Fed will buy not only IG corporate bonds, but also bonds that were rated IG on 22 March but have since been downgraded; 3. Municipal Liquidity Facility - $500bn (with $35bn Treasury equity). As we discussed before, such fiscal and monetary supports are providing a vital lifeline for businesses to weather the covid-19 downturn, but there remains considerable uncertainty over how successful the package of measures will be in enabling businesses to quickly restart activity once restrictions are lifted. There are operational challenges to rolling out lending on such a massive scale and in a such a short time period. Further, if restrictions on activity prove to be more prolonged, or if the government fails to explain a clear exit strategy from lockdowns, some may judge that their business models are no longer viable, no matter how much easy credit is available to them. (Bill Diviney)
marcob77
Moderator
si, tlx, ma non c'era mai ask..
Fabrib
Forumer storico
Noble Corp. NE, +15.38% withdrew its 2020 guidance due to the double whammy caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the Saudi Arabia-Russia oil-price wars and oversupply. Given the ongoing uncertainty, it cannot predict the magnitude or duration of the impact and cannot predict the pace of a recovery. Noble on Wednesday said it will report first-quarter results on May 6. Shares of Noble rose 3% in the extended session after ending the regular trading day 15% higher. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Noble to lose $1.87 a share on sales of $1.04 billion in 2020.
MW
MW
Fabrib
Forumer storico
Major U.S. lenders are preparing to become operators of oil and gas fields across the country for the first time in a generation to avoid losses on loans to energy companies that may go bankrupt, sources aware of the plans told Reuters.
JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co, Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc are each in the process of setting up independent companies to own oil and gas assets, said three people who were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The banks are also looking to hire executives with relevant expertise to manage them, the sources said.
JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co, Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc are each in the process of setting up independent companies to own oil and gas assets, said three people who were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The banks are also looking to hire executives with relevant expertise to manage them, the sources said.
fabriziof
Forumer storico
Noble 2045 a 7 ,qualcuno compra?
