Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Il cassetto degli obbligazionisti perpetui

[Zorba]

AIB - CAPITAL UPDATE


30th March 2010
18:05

Overview of Capital Requirements
As part of the Financial Regulator's assessment of the Irish banking sector's capital requirements it has determined that the targeted equity tier 1 capital ratio for AIB, in common with other institutions, will be 7%. For core tier 1 capital (which includes the Government preference shares), the target will be 8%. The total amount of additional equity capital that the Financial Regulator requires AIB to raise to meet the equity target is €7.4bn. The capital required to meet the core tier 1 target is €4.8bn. It is expected that these amounts will be significantly reduced by capital actions we are taking. The Financial Regulator’s capital requirement is to be met by 31st December 2010.


The strong capital ratios for AIB include an assumed effect of NAMA on our capital base and also incorporate a prudential buffer of c. €1.1bn as requested by the Financial Regulator. This is also after recognising our existing aggregate bad debt provision expectations in 2010, 2011 and 2012. The total capital requirement equates to a targeted equity capital ratio of 7% at the trough of the current cycle or c. 8% without taking into account the buffer.
We expect that the finalised level of equity capital will ensure a high degree of confidence amongst all stakeholders as to the bank’s resilience.

NAMA
A draft of the list of loans and their values transferring to NAMA (the draft loan acquisition schedules) for the first tranche of 10 customers, accounting for c. €3.3bn of loans were submitted by NAMA for review by the bank 3 days ago. This review is continuing. The NAMA discount on transfer indicated by these draft schedules is c. 43% on the first tranche. We note the Financial Regulator’s statement today that at this time he has assumed, for capital planning purposes, the same discount rate to the overall portfolio of NAMA eligible loans as applied to the first tranche. Credit institutions may apply to the Financial Regulator, up to the 30th June 2010, to revise down their capital requirement in the event of

1. the discount rate for subsequent tranches being lower than for the first tranche and / or
2. the quantum of loans to be transferred to NAMA being lower than now estimated.

In relation to this aspect of NAMA’s statement, the following points should be noted in particular

1. As the NAMA process entails a loan by loan exercise, the discount on the loans for the first 10 customers may prove in due course not to represent an accurate discount for the overall portfolio.
2. The quantum of loans estimated to transfer to NAMA is c. €23bn for AIB. On the expected sale of our UK business it is our intention to review with NAMA the quantum of UK based NAMA loans that would transfer. The amount that could be subject to this review is c. €1.5bn. Any change to that quantum of NAMA transferred loans would be subject to the consent of NAMA.

When further valuation work by the bank and NAMA is sufficiently advanced we will advise the market of any material change in expectation.


Bad Debt Provisions
We have carried out a detailed assessment of the bad debt provision charge expected, excluding the already mentioned effect of NAMA transfers. Over the three year period of 2010 to 2012 we have assessed a provision requirement, done by individual portfolio and division. The Financial Regulator has requested the inclusion of further prudential buffers for the Irish banking sector and for AIB this buffer is €1.1bn.

Capital Actions - Self-Help
As we announced earlier this month at our preliminary results we have a range of significant self-help options available to us. We have already successfully undertaken a bond exchange exercise generating approximately €445m of equity capital. We are now actioning additional self-help options, in particular, asset and business disposals. AIB will receive full credit from the Financial Regulator for disposals which have been agreed at year end but may be awaiting regulatory approvals prior to completion.
The distinct assets that we plan to sell principally comprise our UK business, our interest in BZWBK and our interest in M&T. We have appointed AIB Corporate Finance and Morgan Stanley in relation to the sale of BZWBK and our interest in M&T, and AIB Corporate Finance in relation to the sale of our UK business. We currently expect the aggregate proceeds from those sales, based on today’s market conditions, to exceed market estimates and meet a substantial part of our overall need for capital.

Capital Actions - Equity Raising
We will undertake an equity capital raising prior to the end of 2010 to fulfil the remaining capital requirement following disposals and other actions to that time. Our current intentions are to have an equity issue targeted at private shareholders, that would be underwritten by international investment banks or the Government, with any residual requirement met by a conversion of Government preference shares into ordinary shares. The structure, timing and terms of the this equity raising are to be further considered in conjunction with the Government. In doing so, AIB intends to respect pre-emption rights of existing shareholders in any capital raising.
We note the statement by the Minister for Finance that the Government remains committed to providing equity capital if required. We recognise and are grateful for the significant support that has been provided by the Irish taxpayer over the last 18 months.

AIB - Press Releases

 

[Zorba]

Ieri l'ADR di AIB aveva poi chiuso a -8%. Mi sa che questa mattina qualcuno si è letto meglio le news e l'azione sta facendo +10% a Dublino.

BOI +20%, ma credo che sia un riallineamento con il balzo di ieri dell'ADR.

E' da seguire bene. Può finire tanto male ma anche tanto tanto bene.

 

[bellyfull]

qualcuno di sta interessando dell'adc di volkswagen?

vi posto alcuni documenti dell'offerta...

da oggi dovrebbero essere quotati i diritti ma non riesco a trovarli..
qualcuno puo' aiutarmi?

grazie Files allegati

PM_Pricing_En.pdf‎ (96.5 KB, 0 visite)

English translation of the German prospectus for UK residents.pdf‎ (2.65 MB, 0 visite)

 

[Zorba]

Leggevo alcuni passaggi del discorso di Lenihan (Ministro delle finanze irlandese) al Parlamento:

- BOI: the regulator has determined that Bank of Ireland must raise additional equity capital of €2.7 billion by the end of the year to meet the new capital standards. I have been advised that Bank of Ireland expects to be able to raise private capital and is well advanced in its actions to address its capital needs, which I believe underlines the strength of the institution. I fully support the bank’s objective to meet a substantial amount of its capital requirement from private sources. I believe Bank of Ireland has a strong future. In conjunction with this private capital raising and to support it, the State will commit to converting part of its preference shares in Bank of Ireland into ordinary equity

- AIB: the regulator has determined that Allied Irish Banks must raise additional equity capital of at least €7.4 billion by the end of the year to meet the new base case capital standards. In view of the extent of capital to be raised, Allied Irish Banks will be required by the regulator to produce a detailed capital plan by the end of April this year. The basic elements of this plan are already clear. Allied Irish Banks is in a position to raise capital through the sale of overseas assets. The disposal proceeds will provide significant capital but it will not be sufficient to address the full requirement. To the extent that the gap is not filled by the private sector, the State is willing to convert some or all of its preference shares as required on terms to be agreed that will provide full value for the State. The private sector will have an opportunity to participate in Allied Irish Banks’ capital raising. If sufficient private capital is not available, it is probable that the State will have a majority shareholding in Allied Irish Banks as a listed entity.

Parliamentary Debates (Official Report - Unrevised) Dáil Éireann Tuesday, 30 March 2010 - Page 7

 

[Omero]

Leggevo alcuni passaggi del discorso di Lenihan (Ministro delle finanze irlandese) al Parlamento:

- BOI: the regulator has determined that Bank of Ireland must raise additional equity capital of €2.7 billion by the end of the year to meet the new capital standards. I have been advised that Bank of Ireland expects to be able to raise private capital and is well advanced in its actions to address its capital needs, which I believe underlines the strength of the institution. I fully support the bank’s objective to meet a substantial amount of its capital requirement from private sources. I believe Bank of Ireland has a strong future. In conjunction with this private capital raising and to support it, the State will commit to converting part of its preference shares in Bank of Ireland into ordinary equity

- AIB: the regulator has determined that Allied Irish Banks must raise additional equity capital of at least €7.4 billion by the end of the year to meet the new base case capital standards. In view of the extent of capital to be raised, Allied Irish Banks will be required by the regulator to produce a detailed capital plan by the end of April this year. The basic elements of this plan are already clear. Allied Irish Banks is in a position to raise capital through the sale of overseas assets. The disposal proceeds will provide significant capital but it will not be sufficient to address the full requirement. To the extent that the gap is not filled by the private sector, the State is willing to convert some or all of its preference shares as required on terms to be agreed that will provide full value for the State. The private sector will have an opportunity to participate in Allied Irish Banks’ capital raising. If sufficient private capital is not available, it is probable that the State will have a majority shareholding in Allied Irish Banks as a listed entity.

Parliamentary Debates (Official Report - Unrevised) Dáil Éireann Tuesday, 30 March 2010 - Page 7

per il mio cassetto la cosa fondamentale è che rimanga una listed entity poi ci sarà da spettare ma lo sapevamo quando abbiamo preso le azioni e idem per i perpetual che penso faranno di tuttoper togliere di mezzo visto che generarenanno solamente ulteriori costi.
Riducendosi di dimensione AIB non avrà più bisogno di avere una capitalizzazione gonfiata anche dai tier1.

Appena ho liquidità sto pensando di valutare l'ingresso su perpeuti cumulativi di boi e aib.

Spero sinceramente che lo stato irlandese converta prima possibile parte
dei prestiti perchè così si riduce il debito di aib e poi lo stato potrebbe monetizzare più facilmente dei gain sulle azioni come sta facendo UK che si è comperata le banche a saldo.

 

[Zorba]

per il mio cassetto la cosa fondamentale è che rimanga una listed entity poi ci sarà da spettare ma lo sapevamo quando abbiamo preso le azioni e idem per i perpetual che penso faranno di tuttoper togliere di mezzo visto che generarenanno solamente ulteriori costi.
Riducendosi di dimensione AIB non avrà più bisogno di avere una capitalizzazione gonfiata anche dai tier1.

Appena ho liquidità sto pensando di valutare l'ingresso su perpeuti cumulativi di boi e aib.

Spero sinceramente che lo stato irlandese converta prima possibile parte
dei prestiti perchè così si riduce il debito di aib e poi lo stato potrebbe monetizzare più facilmente dei gain sulle azioni come sta facendo UK che si è comperata le banche a saldo.

IMHO lo stato non entrerà in AIB: vendono l'estero, opano Tier-1, Tier-2, riducono lo sconto sulle cessioni a Nama e se il vento girasse potrebbe non servire nemmeno l'AUK con i privati. Se cosi' fosse, l'effetto leva sarebbe pazzesco per le azioni...

BoI e AIB sono da seguire bene.

 

[bosmeld]

Bank of Ireland è uscita benissimo da tutte queste notizie e sta salendo con forza. personalmente sto a +35% dal mio pmc, peccato non aver incremetato...



Allied irish, invece esce un po più malconcia, se tutto va bene cmq si rimpicciolirà parecchio. però questi prezzi potrebbero essere interessanti per comprare qualche cosina. su allied irish sto a -6% dal mio pmc.



cmq Boi mi piace molto molto di più, ma quota anche parecchi di più...

certo è da dire che Boi anche a questi prezzi penso prorpio che sul lungo dara grosse soddisfazioni, però fa effetto comprare dopo rialzi così corposi...

 

[Zorba]

Bank of Ireland è uscita benissimo da tutte queste notizie e sta salendo con forza. personalmente sto a +35% dal mio pmc, peccato non aver incremetato...



Allied irish, invece esce un po più malconcia, se tutto va bene cmq si rimpicciolirà parecchio. però questi prezzi potrebbero essere interessanti per comprare qualche cosina. su allied irish sto a -6% dal mio pmc.



cmq Boi mi piace molto molto di più, ma quota anche parecchi di più...

certo è da dire che Boi anche a questi prezzi penso prorpio che sul lungo dara grosse soddisfazioni, però fa effetto comprare dopo rialzi così corposi...

Anche io sono a -6% su AIB e a +36% su BOI.

L'ADR di BOI sta per bucare i 9... a ottobre era quasi a 20... chissà...

 

[Omero]

IMHO lo stato non entrerà in AIB: vendono l'estero, opano Tier-1, Tier-2, riducono lo sconto sulle cessioni a Nama e se il vento girasse potrebbe non servire nemmeno l'AUK con i privati. Se cosi' fosse, l'effetto leva sarebbe pazzesco per le azioni...

BoI e AIB sono da seguire bene.

Spero solo che, non volendo far fallire Anglo Irish, la facciano fondere nella migliore fra le altre due AIB o BOI.
Queste due sono sicure seocndo me perchè sono i due poli che garantiscono la concorrenza che, superata la fase critica della crisi, dovrà essere ristabilità.
Se Una delle due fosse costretta a assorbire Anglo Irish ne risulterebbe pesantemente zavorrata e vedremmo crescere a dismisura la presenza dello stato.

E' solo un dubbio che mi hanno fatto venire le parole del ministro irlandese che escludeva a priori il fallimento di anglo Irish.

In fondo in Uk hanno pilotato la fusione di Lloyds con HBOS impachettando tutto in un unico pastone di debiti e prestiti statali.

 

[negusneg]

qualcuno di sta interessando dell'adc di volkswagen?

vi posto alcuni documenti dell'offerta...

da oggi dovrebbero essere quotati i diritti ma non riesco a trovarli..
qualcuno puo' aiutarmi?

grazie Files allegati

PM_Pricing_En.pdf‎ (96.5 KB, 0 visite)

English translation of the German prospectus for UK residents.pdf‎ (2.65 MB, 0 visite)

Ciao bellyfull, non seguo VW da quando per le note vicende il titolo era schizzato alle stelle. Se trovo qualcosa te lo posto...