Troubling Trades Found Ahead of Flash Crash
   September 27, 2010    
 Graham Bowley, a DealBook colleague, reports:
 The Chicago data firm that first identified strange patterns — dubbed 
“crop circles” — in stock market data around 
the flash crash on May 6 has put together 
a new analysis that it says backs the theory that one or more trading firms was intentionally trying to flood exchanges with orders.
 The firm, 
Nanex, hopes the 
Securities and Exchange Commission and the 
Commodity Futures Trading Commission  will be able to address its analysis in their long-awaited report on  the flash crash due to be published before the end of this month. 
 Eric Scott Hunsader, the founder of Nanex, said the regulators must  at least explain why investors and other market participants should not  be worried by what it found to be a sharp acceleration in the frequency  of orders being sent to exchanges that preceded the plunge in the stock  market on May 6.
 “They need to address this because if they don’t, the market will  address it,” he said, suggesting that confidence in the integrity of the  market could be undermined.
 In 
an interview last week  with The New York Times, Gregg E. Berman, the S.E.C. official leading  its investigation into the cause of the crash, said he had found no  evidence of any intention to disrupt markets on May 6.
 Mr. Hunsader said the sharp increase in order frequency, caused by  computerized traders shooting rapid-fire buy and sell orders to  exchanges, was a trend that had become even more pronounced since May.  In some instances, order frequency had risen to as much as 15,000 orders  a second in some stocks, he said.
 In the new analysis, Nanex says it has identified a crucial  one-second period around 14:42 on the afternoon of May 6 just before  stocks started to fall. During this period, buy and sell orders shot up  markedly.
 It says it has also discovered a similar pattern occurring a week earlier on April 28.
 Nanex says that so far the immediate causes of the crash seem to be a  sale of about $125 million of the most actively traded stock-index  derivative contract, known as the 500 e-mini futures contract, on the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange  followed a fraction of a second later by a big sale of exchange-traded  funds on other exchanges. Shortly after these events, the broader stock  market went into a free fall.
 
“In our opinion, the event that sparked the rapid  sell-off at 14:42:44:075 was an immediate sale of approximately $125  million worth of June 2010 CME eMini futures contracts followed 25ms  later by the immediate sale of over $100 Million worth of the top  ETF’s.”
 But Nanex says that it has now also identified a surge in buy and  sell orders that preceded these sales and that this surge may provide  the ultimate explanation for the sharp drop in the stock market.
 
“Approximately 400ms before the eMini sale, the quote  traffic rate for all NYSE, NYSE Arca, and Nasdaq stocks surged to  saturation levels within 75ms. This is a new and surprising discovery.”
 This surge in orders may not have been intended to cause the general  market rout. Instead, it may have been intended simply to slow down some  markets so that traders could profit by arbitrage with other exchanges,  Mr. Hunsader said.
 
Go to Flash Crash Analysis from Nanex »
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Troubling Trades Found Ahead of Flash Crash - NYTimes.com