Macroeconomia Immobiliare USA (residenziale e commerciale) e finanza strutturata

Si contiene l'incremento di delinquencies attraverso la cessione degli asset più rischiosi da parte dei gestori di CDO dei loans dell'immobiliare commerciale USA.

Fitch: Asset Sales Continue to Dampen U.S. CREL CDO Delinquencies

13 Jul 2009 9:30 AM (EDT) Fitch Ratings-New York-13 July 2009: While the June 2009 Fitch Ratings CREL CDO delinquency index increase to 8.2% from 7.9% appears slight, it has been tempered by managers trading out credit impaired loans over the past two months (0.9%). However, these trades have been primarily at discounts to par. While the trades mute delinquency increases, the losses from selling assets at a discount lead to less available credit enhancement to the notes.

Fitch expects the U.S. CREL CDO Delinquency Index (CREL DI) to continue increasing. 'A leading indicator of future delinquencies is the 30 days or less past due bucket, which has exceeded 2% for the last two months with a high in June of 2.8%.' said Senior Director Karen Trebach. 'While these loans are not included in the index, nearly half of all new delinquencies over the past six months were previously 30 days or less late.'


In the June reporting period, 15 loans were added to the CREL DI, while 10 assets were removed, including seven that were traded out at prices ranging from 49.6% to 100% of par. Average June recoveries for removed assets were 63.1%. While higher than the prior two months' average recoveries of 25.5% and 46.6%, it is too early to conclude a positive trend. Loans traded out at discounts result in realized losses to the CDO collateral. Fitch takes into account all such losses in its evaluation of the credit enhancement available for each CDO tranche.


For the second straight month, assets that are 30 days or less past due has exceeded 2% with the June level at 2.8%. While these loans are not included in the CREL DI, they can be a leading indicator. Over the past six months nearly half of all new delinquencies where previously in the 30 days or less late bucket; as such Fitch expects a further rise in the CREL DI.
Asset managers extended 26 loans in the June reporting period, including some for periods as short as one month. Short term extensions typically are used to allow time to negotiate longer term extensions, or pursue third-party refinancing, which in most cases, Fitch expects will be unobtainable. Fitch considers the merits of all extensions in its analysis of each transaction.


Fitch currently rates 35 CREL CDOs, 27 of which had delinquent assets in the June reporting period. Individual CDO delinquency rates ranged from 0% to approximately 35% of the CDO par balance. All CREL CDOs with delinquent assets have either recently had classes downgraded or currently have classes on Rating Watch Negative, with full transaction reviews to be conducted in the next few months.


The universe of 35 Fitch rated CREL CDOs currently encompasses approximately 1,100 loans and 370 rated securities/assets with a balance of $23.8 billion. The CREL delinquency index includes loans that are 60 days or longer delinquent, matured balloon loans, and the current month's repurchased assets.
 
Bernanke "preoccupato"...

Bernanke Says Commercial Property May Pose Risk for Economy

By Scott Lanman

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said a potential wave of defaults in commercial real estate may present a “difficult” challenge for the economy, without committing to additional steps to aid the market

Bernanke, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee today, urged lenders to modify “problem” mortgages to avert defaults. Christopher Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who chairs the panel, told Bernanke that “some have suggested” the commercial market “may even dwarf the residential mortgage problems” in the U.S.

The state of commercial real estate was one of the most- asked-about subjects in questioning by lawmakers so far in Bernanke’s two days of testimony on the economy. Bernanke said today in the Senate and yesterday at the House Financial Services Committee that it’s too early to tell how effective the Fed’s main initiative in the area will be.

The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, a Fed emergency program that lends to investors to purchase securities backed by consumer and business loans, began accepting commercial mortgage-backed securities as collateral last month.

Fed policy makers will extend the TALF, currently scheduled to expire Dec. 31, should they judge financial markets are still “some distance from normal operation,” Bernanke said today.

TALF Extension

“We will certainly be monitoring the situation, and if markets continue to need support, we will be extending the final date of that program,” Bernanke said.

It “may be appropriate” for the government and Congress to consider “fiscal” steps to support the industry, Bernanke said today. Ideas for fresh support for the market could include government guarantees for commercial mortgages, Bernanke also said today, while noting no proposal on the subject has emerged.

U.S. commercial property prices fell 7.6 percent in May from a month earlier, bringing the total decline to 35 percent since the market’s peak, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report this week. Commercial properties in the U.S. valued at more than $108 billion are now in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy, almost double than at the start of the year, Real Capital Analytics Inc. said earlier this month.

Yesterday, more than a half-dozen members of the House panel mentioned or asked Bernanke about the topic, with Chairman Barney Frank saying there’s a “great deal of fear” that a wave of commercial defaults will produce economic problems similar to those caused by residential mortgages.

“As the recession’s gotten worse in the last six months or so, we’re seeing increased vacancy, declining rents, falling prices -- and so, more pressure on commercial real estate,” Bernanke said yesterday. “We are somewhat concerned about that sector and are paying very close attention to it. We’re taking the steps that we can through the banking system and through the securitization markets to try to address it.”

One of the main issues for the industry is that the market for debt backed by commercial mortgages “has completely shut down,” the Fed chief said yesterday.
 
La fortuna di avere gli inquilini "giusti", Lehman e GM... :D

Boston Properties is facing the remainder of the year
without most of Lehman, which had contributed $44.9 million a
year, or General Motors Corp, which in June rejected a lease
for 120,000 square feet at the former Citigroup Center. GM's
lease was to last until May 2019. GM, which recently emerged
from bankruptcy, was expected to contribute $6.6 million per
year to Boston Properties' revenue. Boston Properties also is navigating deteriorating markets,
especially in Manhattan. The company, whose chairman is
publisher Mortimer Zuckerman, owns or has interest in 146
properties totaling 49.1 million square feet. During the quarter, total occupancy of Boston Properties'
portfolio of properties fell to 92 percent, down from 94.5
percent at the end of December. Midtown Manhattan, which is its
richest market, saw the most precipitous drop, to 91.6 percent
from 98.4 percent at the end of 2008. For properties the company has owned for at least a year,
net operating income, which reflects the cash flow the
properties generate, rose an anemic 0.1 percent. The company, whose chairman is publisher Mortimer
Zuckerman, cut its previously reduced forecast for 2009 FFO to
a range of $4.55 to $4.63, from $4.65 to $4.80 per share. Grappling with the credit crisis, many leading U.S. real
estate investment trusts have cut their dividends, and Boston
Properties was among the last holdouts. The company last month
slashed its quarterly dividend to 50 cents per share from 68
cents per share. It also raised about $842 million from a sale of more than
17 million shares for the repayment of debt and to make future
investments. It used some of the cash to repay the balance on
its revolving credit facility and a $30.1 million mortgage
loan. Shares of Boston Properties closed at $49.80 on the New
York Stock Exchange and were unchanged in after-hours trade.
Year to date, share are down 9.45 percent, outperforming the
overall benchmark MSCI U.S. REIT Index .RMZ.

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSN2125938520090721
 
PREVIEW-REIT investors move from fear to fundamentals

Fri Jul 24, 2009 11:18pm EDT

* Investors look for damage from the economy
* Deleveraging still important
* Some REITs may be looking ahead toward acquisitions
By Ilaina Jonas NEW YORK, July 24 (Reuters) -

Many real estate investment
trusts (REITs) spent the first quarter avoiding a financial
funeral, but when they report second-quarter earnings in the
next weeks, some may be feeling a new sense of longevity.
What a difference $14 billion makes.
While the first-quarter earnings season was wracked by
fears about who would follow mall owner General Growth
Properties Inc (GGWPQ.PK) into bankruptcy, second-quarter
reports will likely be dominated by talk about real estate
fundamentals -- rent rates and occupancy levels -- as well as
some hints about moving on and growing.
"I think that initial widespread fears that you're going to
have (more of) these types of GGP-type blow-ups have left the
building," Green Street senior analyst Andy McCulloch said.
The $14 billion the REITs raised in massive equity
offerings in the second quarter helped strengthen and stabilize
REIT balance sheets. The unexpected demand lifted the benchmark
MSCI U.S. REIT index .RMZ from a low of 271.8 in March to
457.04 on Friday, reflecting confidence in the sector's
long-term survival. This earnings season, investors and analysts will be
gauging the damage the U.S. recession has inflicted on demand
for office space, shopping centers, apartments and warehouse
and distribution centers.
"Overall, the things that we're going to be most focused on
are occupancy and credit of tenancy and how the companies are
going about dealing with these issues," said Robert Gadsden,
Alpine Realty Income & Growth Fund portfolio manager.
Some investors and analysts fear that apartment REITs --
such as AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB.N) -- will see occupancy
decline and may lower their forecasts.
Neighborhood shopping centers, which are anchored by
grocery or drug stores, were thought to be recession-proof. But
after Regency Centers Corp (REG.N) cut its second-quarter
forecast on July 17, some investors see others in the space --
including Kimco Realty Corp (KIM.N), Kite Realty Group Trust
(KRG.N) and Weingarten Realty Investors (WRI.N) -- as
vulnerable.
MALLS AND OFFICES
So far, mall giants such as Simon Property Group Inc
(SPG.N) have resisted granting tenants breaks on their rent.
"I think that's the area that the market's going to be
focused on for the mall group to see whether there's been any
cracks that are allowing for retailers to get some rent relief
from the landlords," Gadsden said.
For office companies such as SL Green Realty Corp (SLG.N)
and Mack-Cali Realty Corp (CLI.N), investors want to know how
far some core U.S. markets, such as Manhattan, as well as
suburban markets have deteriorated.
And looking to industrial companies, such as AMB Property
Corp (AMB.N), investors are waiting for an update on
speculative leases for buildings constructed during the boom.
Investors said they believe the overall REIT sector will
reflect continuing deterioration.
"Generally, we're going to be looking for earnings to be
down from last year at a weighed average negative growth rate
in the 5-to-10 percent range," said Jay Leupp, senior portfolio
manager for Grubb & Ellis AGA funds.
But deciphering results may be complicated by debt
repurchase gains and more shares issued during the equity
offerings. "The earnings that we're going to see this quarter and for
the rest of the year are going to have a lot of noise in them,"
Gadsden said. Still, investors expect REITs to continue trimming their
leverage levels and bolstering balance sheets.
"Equity is probably not quite as hot a topic as last
quarter, but it's still important," McCulloch said. "Now
everyone is moving on to phase 2 of the re-equitization
process. As far as deleveraging, the REITs still have a long
way to go." REIT executives also may try to provide a peek at the more
distant future, now that they are more certain they will have
one. "I do think in some sectors we will see some potential
rebound in 2010," Leupp said. "There is going to be the
potential in some sectors for earnings growth and for companies
with healthy enough balance sheets to go on offense and make
high-yielding acquisitions that actually drive earnings
growth."
(Reporting by Ilaina Jonas; editing by Patrick Fitzgibbons and
Matthew Lewis)

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2446789820090724?rpc=44
 
I prezzi dell'immobiliare commerciale USA in calo del 7,6% su base annua a maggio 2009, secondo le rilevazioni di Moody's. Siamo a circa - 35% dal picco di ciclo osservato nell'ottobre 2007, e per Moody's la velocità del calo dei prezzi nel bimestre aprile maggio potrebbe suggerire che siamo in prossimità di un bottom di ciclo, seppure il consolidamento dei prezzi su questi livelli (dai quali sarebbe poi postulabile una ripartenza in caso di ripresa economica) implichi più elevati livelli di transazioni su queste basi.

Il dispaccio stampa con cui Moody's presenta il proprio report

Moody's: U.S. Commercial Real Estate Prices Fall 7.6% in May

New York, July 20, 2009 -- Commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) decreased 7.6% in May, leaving the index at 28.5% below its level a year ago and 34.8% below the peak in prices measured in October 2007.

"Large commercial real estate price declines in the last two months suggest that a bottom may be starting to form, although higher transaction volumes would be necessary in order to draw any definite conclusions," says Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy, commenting on the Indices.

In May overall sales volume by both dollar amount and count reached new historical lows for the CPPI, which dates back to 2000.

The CPPI

Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Prices Indices are based on the repeat sales of the same properties across the US at different points in time. Analyzing price changes measured in this way provides maximum transparency and methodological rigor. This approach also circumvents the distortions that can occur with other commercial property value measurements such as appraisals or average prices, says Moody's.

The title of this report is "Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices, July 2009."
 
Intanto però la situazione attuale del mercato dell'edilizia commerciale USA resta ai minimi di sempre in tutti i comparti, debole anche in comparti come quello delle abitazioni multifamiliari, che pure dovrebbe beneficiare dell'elevato numero di foreclosure delle abitazioni unifamiliari.

Moody's: U.S. Commercial real estate markets' decline accelerates

New York, July 21, 2009 -- The downward spiral in commercial real estate market fundamentals has accelerated as the recession persists, Moody's Investors Service says in its latest Red-Yellow-Green® study. For the first time in six years, none of the seven property types tracked by Moody's has a "green" or strong score, while four of the property types are at levels of weakness unmatched in the almost 10-year history of the study.

The two hotel sectors—full service and limited service—continued to post lowest possible scores of 0 during the first quarter, while the industrial sector recorded its all-time worst score as it fell into red territory. Multifamily deteriorated enough to fall from green into yellow, where it joins the retail and the central business district office sectors.

Moody's says that while supply pipelines do continue to dry up across all property types, forecasted demand has similarly dropped, so that demand projections for six of the seven property types worsened during the quarter.

In addition, vacancy rates have maintained a steadily increasing trend among all property types (except hotels where they are not measured), and the poor absorption expectations do little to assuage the tide of availability. Given the bleak forecasts, any significant improvement in Red-Yellow-Green scores is unlikely in the coming quarters.

Among hotels, year-over-year Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) fell below the record lows reached the previous quarter and now lag the baseline measure by levels never seen before.

Moody's Red-Yellow-Green report scores markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67 -- 100 as green. The new second quarter study reflects data from the first quarter of 2009.

SECTOR BY SECTOR ANALYSIS

The multifamily sector dropped six points during the quarter, to slide into yellow with a score of 66. The vacancy rate moved upward for the sixth straight quarter, from 7.0% to 7.3%. Meanwhile, the growth in demand slowed from 0.7% last quarter to 0.2% while the supply pipeline held at 1.0% for anther quarter, leading to the supply-demand imbalance widening to -0.8%.

The score for neighborhood and community retail centers dropped nine points this quarter to end at Yellow 46, the lowest score on record for the sector. Though the supply pipeline continued to contract, down to 0.6% of current inventory, 36 markets saw absorption forecasts dip, for a supply-demand imbalance of -1.3%.

Offices in central business districts (CBD) also fell six points this quarter to a composite score of Yellow 42, due to an increase in vacancy and a decrease in demand. This quarter none of the top-ten markets are green, while nine are yellow and one remained red (Seattle, which had a score of 0).

The suburban office sector dropped five points for the second consecutive quarter to a score of Red 27. Fifty of the 52 markets covered continue to show double-digit vacancy rates, with eight markets having vacancy rates exceeding 20%.

The industrial sector plummeted 19 points to Red 27, a new low for the sector, as demand forecasts shrank and the composite vacancy rate reached a record high of 12.2%.

The full-service hotel sector remained at zero for a second quarter, despite the improvement in anticipated demand decline, measured by projected RevPAR change, from -6.5% to -4.1 during the quarter. Year-over-year RevPAR, however, was down 20.0%.

The limited-service hotel sector also remained at 0 for a second quarter. During the quarter, RevPAR growth was -17.5%, a significant deterioration from -9.5% the previous quarter.

METROPOLITAN MARKET ANALYSIS

The overall commercial real estate composite score for the U.S. is 34, an eight-point drop from last quarter, the lowest possible yellow score. Moody's notes that the two largest markets supporting commercial mortgage backed securities, New York and Los Angeles, both had double-digit drops and are only two points higher than the composite, at 36.

The scores of the top 10 cities found most frequently in CMBS, based on dollar volume, are as follows, with the previous quarter's score in parenthesis: New York 36 (46), Los Angeles 36 (50), San Francisco 39 (55), Philadelphia 42 (48), Miami 33 (41), Houston 36 (52), Washington DC 44 (44), Atlanta 25 (30), Dallas 26 (37), and Chicago 30 (33).

The five best markets in the U.S. are: Pittsburgh 52 (61), Las Vegas 49 (49), Honolulu 47 (60), Washington DC 44 (44), and Newark 43 (48).

The five worst markets in the U.S. are: Trenton NJ 11 (27), Phoenix AZ 16 (12), Detroit 16 (24), Indianapolis 19 (39), and Sacramento 24 (36).
 
TWST: In a June industry outlook report, Moody's noted "ratings activity has been decidedly negative" for REITs and real estate operating companies. How extensive have the downgrades been and what are the causing factors?
Ms. Frankel: In the period between January 1, 2008 and April 30, 2009, Moody's REIT team made 40 rating changes - 38 downgrades and two upgrades for an upgrade/downgrade ratio of 5.3%. The good part is that of the downgrades, only four involved "fallen angels" - issuers that moved from investment grade to speculative - and all but one of the 15 multi-notch downgrades involved speculative grade issuers (i.e., below investment grade or Ba and below). There were 26 total outlook and rating review changes; 18 were directionally negative - 12 to negative from stable, and six to stable from positive. Three outlook changes were directionally positive. The remaining outlook changes were uncertain or directionally neutral in nature. Since the beginning of 2008, 47 issuers out of the total Moody's-rated REIT and REOC universe of 73 (or 64%) have maintained their same rating and outlook. We do expect most rating actions among US REITs to be negative in the coming year, as they face refinancing needs at a time of restricted cash flows and rising capitalization rates due to the economic recession. However, many REITs have managed their capital structure and operations during the recession and are likely going to retain their ratings. Investment-grade REITs entered this period of reduced credit with sound balance sheets and largely unencumbered portfolios of assets, which has been a great help in successfully raising capital in the debt and equity markets to lower refinancing risk and augment liquidity. In some cases, increases in total leverage and secured debt levels have added substantial pressure on ratings and thus caused downgrades. This has also impacted bond and credit facility/line covenants. The bottom line: One, the upheaval in the credit markets showed that a capital structure based upon access to all four quadrants of the markets - debt, equity, public, private - is important. Two, is a back-to-basics attitude among REIT management - internal management, focusing on "internal growth," i.e., leasing and maximizing property values.
TWST: Overall, how concerned are you about REITs' refinancing risks over the next year or so?
Ms. Frankel: We completed an extensive analysis of all of the companies we cover. Many can cover their maturities for 2009 and 2010, and some well into 2011 and beyond. There are even a few companies good until 2013. More term loans seem to be issued and secured debt is more prevalent rather than unsecured notes.Due to equity issuance and mortgages, companies have generally reduced leverage and improved liquidity over the past few months. There is clearly a return to fundamentals afoot as discussed in the first quarter earnings calls and at NAREIT. Companies are returning to their roots - leasing property to the strongest tenants possible, reducing debt (e.g., Kimco's (KIM) announcement that their target is now 25%), issuing equity and notes where possible (e.g., Simon (SPG)), and reducing development and joint venture pipelines.
TWST: Which are some of the stronger companies and what is setting them apart from the others?
Ms. Frankel: There is a flight to quality and a greater bifurcation between the good companies and the not-so-good companies, which comes down to not only how the companies can react to the market, but also whether it's retail or office or whatever, the tenants are saying more often that they want to be with the successful landlords. There are six ratings factors that set companies apart from one another. Number one, which is really paramount, is liquidity and funding. Number two, leverage and capital structure. Three is market position and asset quality. Four is profitability and sustainability of cash flows. Five, internal operating environment and six, external operating environment. Retail is one of my specialties; more than half of my portfolio is retail. And one thing I find interesting is that many of our companies are poaching tenants, that seems to be the word of the day. Let's say you have one of the REITs, especially shopping center REITs, and there are competitors in the same market. Their leasing guys are running to all the competition and going tenant-by-tenant, door-by-door, and basically just poaching tenants for other centers. At the end of the day, I wonder where this musical chairs is going to end up. We are finding that the A- and Baa-rated companies are clearly the stronger and more liquid ones, like your Simon Properties and Federal Realty (FRT) and Realty Income (O).

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/REITs-Rating-Changes-twst-3697319002.html?x=0&.v=1

TWST: Where are you pointing investors at this juncture?
Mr. AuBuchon: Not a lot of places unfortunately. I think where we're really starting to focus our attention is the healthcare REIT space. Our current position on the sector is an Evenweight rating but we do have a couple of Outperforms, HCP, Inc. (HCP) and Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH). As I said previously, I think REIT performance is going to be flat for the next year in response to poor fundamentals and if you do believe in that thesis, then it makes sense to be a little bit more defensive. The healthcare group generally fits the defensive definition and their balance sheets as a group are much better than other property types. We're not there yet. I do have some concerns in the healthcare space related to the senior housing space, primarily independent living, which is essentially retirement communities. The cost to live in those communities is primarily funded with private capital, and private capital sources are usually housing and equity/debt investments. Clearly both of those capital sources have undergone some pretty significant declines over the last several years and, as a result, I'm concerned about the occupancy and rental rates in that space. But if we start to see that area stabilizing, we'll feel much more comfortable recommending that people look at the healthcare group a bit more aggressively.
TWST: Does this space get any benefit from the healthcare proposals on the part of the new Administration?
Mr. AuBuchon: We're studying that right now. I think generally speaking, most are wary of the hospitals and what sort of cost reductions are going to be implemented in hospitals. Clearly hospitals are the most expensive place to receive health care and that's where a lot of the expenses are in the Medicare/Medicaid program. To the extent that the government is trying to limit reimbursement in that area, I think we're concerned about what that may mean for companies that own hospitals. Additionally, nursing homes are primarily funded by Medicare and Medicaid and clearly state budgets are pretty challenged right now. Outside of the Medicare/Medicaid issues, I don't think that programs the Administration is thinking about would be a negative at all for most of these companies.
TWST: If we look out longer term, are they beneficiaries of the aging baby boom population?
Mr. AuBuchon: Sure. There are huge numbers of people who are entering their later years, and that's obviously where most of the medical costs are concentrated. We've also seen the health care REITs evolve over the past 10 years from primarily a skilled nursing/assisted living focus to owning a wide swath of healthcare assets including medical office space, outpatient surgery centers, hospitals and independent living. The aging baby boomer demographic profile is clearly positive for this group because right now, there's not enough of that real estate around.
TWST: Who is at the top of the list in the space?
Mr. AuBuchon: We have two outperform ratings. HCP is one. They are fairly diversified, they are the biggest company out there. They're, again, diversified by product type and geography. They've been doing a very good job of building a portfolio that should deliver mid-single-digits earnings growth, and that, on top of the 9% dividend yield right now, should help generate low teens total return. The other is Senior Housing Properties Trust, and they have one of the best balance sheets of all the REITs. That will allow them to really take advantage of this cycle and where assets are being priced today, and I think we'll give them a heads-up versus the rest of their peers in acquisitions. They're also diversified, not as much as HCP, but primarily in the assisted living, independent living and skilled nursing area. They've also made a concerted effort to increase their exposure to the medical office segment. I expect that to continue. HCP and SNH are the top two picks right now in that space.
TWST: Is there anything outside the healthcare space that you like?
Mr. AuBuchon: The other one I would point investors to is Digital Realty (DLR). Digital is a company that focuses on data centers. That is a fairly new real estate asset class and there's a huge amount of demand for data centers, given the huge increase in Web-based activities from social networking sites, retailing, outsourcing from corporations, and the amount of video and music that is conducted over the Internet. It's pretty dramatic. All of that is really increasing the demand for data center space, places to store our data digitally, and it doesn't even include the healthcare sector and the government, two big institutional users that are behind the curve. Digital is the one REIT I cover that could be labeled as having positive fundamentals now and for the foreseeable future.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Senior-and-Healthcare-REITs-twst-2459749305.html?x=0&.v=1
 
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