Quelli che ci sono andati più leggeri sono S&P, ma solo per ora: si preannuncia un taglio del rating compreso fra 1 e 2 livelli. In sostanza il blocco della legge sui depositi Icesave ritarda l'erogazione delle restanti tranche di prestito FMI (quelle da erogarsi materialmente da parte degli altri stati scandinavi) e probabilmente renderà necessaria una rinegoziazione in senso peggiorativo per l'Islanda delle condizioni poste dal FMI, che potrebbe richiedere un surplus primario più elevato, con ritardi nella prevista adozione delle misure di normalizzazione dei flussi di capitali e con essi del ritorno del cambio libero della ISK.
Iceland Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Negative Following Icesave Veto
·The Icesave veto could lead to delays to and revisions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program.
·As a result, we could lower our ratings on Iceland by one to two notches within a month.
·The local currency ratings are vulnerable due to continuing constraints to monetary flexibility.
·We are placing our 'BBB-/A-3' foreign currency and 'BBB+/A-2' local currency ratings on Iceland on CreditWatch with negative implications.
FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 5, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it placed its 'BBB-/A-3' foreign currency and 'BBB+/A-2' local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Iceland on CreditWatch with negative implications.
The CreditWatch placement indicates the likelihood of a downgrade if political uncertainty grows and external liquidity pressures persist in the wake of President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson's veto of the "Icesave Act," which parliament passed on Dec. 30, 2009. The vetoed legislation would have extended a sovereign guarantee for a loan by the Dutch and U.K. governments to the Icelandic deposit guarantee fund.
The proceeds of that loan, in turn, would have reimbursed the Dutch and U.K. governments for having compensated depositors in Icesave, a branch in The Netherlands and the U.K. of the failed Icelandic bank Landsbanki.
Resolution of the Icesave issue is a condition for ancillary bilateral funding from Nordic nations that is part of Iceland's IMF agreement. "As a result of the veto, we expect that disbursements on the remaining $2.3 billion balance under the IMF program will be delayed and the parameters of the program might have to be reworked, possibly including raising the required primary surplus targets," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Kai Stukenbrock.
"The financing is key to bolster the central bank's foreign exchange reserves, currently about €2.5 billion, and to permit an eventual easing of capital controls put in place in late November 2008."
"We expect to resolve the CreditWatch placement this month once there is greater clarity about the political will to enact other measures to restore investor confidence and about the availability of official external financing," said Mr. Stukenbrock. "Should a political impasse persist or should we deem that Iceland's access to official external financing has been [FONT="]affected, we could lower our ratings on Iceland by one or two notches."[/FONT]