From Morgan Stanley chief economist Ellen Zentner:
FOMC Reaction: 2, 3, or 4?
As expected the Fed raised the target range by 25bp and did
not soften its resolve to continue hiking gradually. Next year
the Committee is evenly split between 2, 3, and 4 hikes. Our
rates strategists still suggest UST 2s10s and 2s30s flatteners,
and 5s10s TIPS breakeven flatteners.
Our Key Takeaways
As expected, the FOMC voted to raise its target range for the federal
funds rate by 25bp, to 2.00%–2.25%.
As expected, the Committee chose to strike the language describing
the stance of policy as accommodative. With no perceived signal on
the future path for policy, it garnered no market reaction.
Though there is a strong consensus for 4 hikes this year, it is now
evenly split between 2, 3, and 4 hikes next year. By 2021, a handful of
participants actually see the Fed dropping rates as the economy
drifts toward neutral.
We continue to expect the Fed to hike three additional times through
June 2019 when we expect the shape of growth to be interpreted as a
sign the Committee has reached neutral and sees the need to pause.
US Rates Strategy
Powell's view on risks to a faster pace of rate hikes suggests that, for
Treasuries to break to new yield highs, US CPI inflation needs to
surprise to the upside. We continue to suggest investors maintain
UST 10y note duration longs while remaining cognizant of risks from
euro area inflation later this week and US CPI inflation on October 11.
We continue to suggest investors maintain UST 2s10s and UST 2s30s
yield curve flatteners, as the Fed still thinks taking policy into
restrictive territory is appropriate while the market remains in doubt.
We think long-term TIPS breakevens will continue to price based on
anchored inflation expectations, which we think will keep breakevens
low vs. history. We continue to suggest 5s10s breakeven curve and
2s5s CPI swap curve flatteners as the market continues to under
price tariff risks.