Obbligazioni in dollari Keep Calm And Invest Preferred Shares Usa
NoWay
It's time to play the game
perdonami ultimamente seguo poco
No problem... ci mancherebbe...
Non conosci nessuno di questi REIT?
Peco
Forumer storico
Tempo fa mi ero interessato a Sabra Healthcare per la sua pref mi era sembrata buona per diversificare. Comunque si tratta di un settore molto difficile che si basa su economie di scala per essere redditizio, a causa dei costi enormi. Il costo delle degenze si aggirano sui 4.000 $ al mese, non molte persone possono permetterselo, sono poche quelle che si coprono con un assicurazione, la maggior parte delle degenze sono a carico del Medicaid un programma di assistenza sanitaria sociale per le famiglie e il rimborso sotto Medicaid è molto basso e non sempre copre i costi
NoWay
It's time to play the game
Per il discorso delle economie di scala, se/quando puoi, dai uno sguardo a Health Care Reit Inc...
Health Care REIT - NYSE:HCN
Peco
Forumer storico
Ecco purtroppo
cosa bisogna guardareIl portafoglio della società è concentrata nei ricchi mercati metropolitani, con forti valori medi delle famiglie e dei redditi. Questo porta un canone di locazione più elevato e un risultato operativo netto per unità.
Se è lo stato a pagare il conto il rimborso per persona alle case di cura sarà tagliato sempre di più dal momento che la domanda di assistenza agli anziani aumenterà
NoWay
It's time to play the game
Ecco purtroppo
Il portafoglio della società è concentrata nei ricchi mercati metropolitani, con forti valori medi delle famiglie e dei redditi. Questo porta un canone di locazione più elevato e un risultato operativo netto per unità.
Se è lo stato a pagare il conto il rimborso per persona alle case di cura sarà tagliato sempre di più dal momento che la domanda di assistenza agli anziani aumenterà
Stando a quanto ho capito tutti questi reit possiedono/gestiscono strutture di alto livello e, ovviamente, elevato costo per i degenti...
ferdo
Utente Senior
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalho
Bonds, long only, long-term horizon, dividend investing
Profile| Send Message| Follow (3 followers)
What Will 2015 Bring For Vale Stockholders?
Dec. 16, 2014 1:12 PM ET | 8 comments | About: Vale S.A. (VALE)
Disclosure: The author is long VALE. (More...)
Summary
The crash in iron ore prices will make for a very hard 2015 for producers, and Vale is one of them.
Vale's CAPEX plans, despite being smaller than in 2014, are still too high in the current market conditions.
Vale will need to increase its debt to pay dividends.
The big questions for those still long Vale (NYSE
ALE), as well as for those wondering if the crash in the value of this stock makes it a good contrarian bet, are: Ok, we know that iron ore is down, but in 2015 will Vale remain profitable? Will it pay a dividend? Will it be forced to increase its debt?
Of course the key indicator which changes everything for Vale is the iron ore price, and depending on its rise and fall the company can do extremely well or quite badly. So let's suppose that in 2015 the value of iron ore will remain at similar prices as today -- let's say it will average US$70 in 2015. Lets also suppose that nickel, cupper, coal and fertilizer prices will all remain at the low levels seen at the end of this year. And using these assumptions, lets calculate what will happen to Vale and if it will have free cash to pay dividends.
Knowing how much EBITDA the ferrous metals division had in the last two quarters and the average iron ore price in the months of each quarter, and supposing a linear relationship, one can calculate how much money this division would make for lower ore prices such as the ones seen today. The table bellow shows exactly the values so calculated:
Date Iron Ore Ferrous Metals quarterly EBITDA Ferrous Metals annual EBITDA
US$ M US$ M US$
2Q14 103 3604 14416
3Q14 90 2411 9644
Calculated 80 1100 4400
Calculated 70 400 1600
Calculated 60 50 200
We suppose a ore price of US$70 for 2015, but in the last transcript Vale claims that it will have cost reductions in 2015 of US$ 10 per ton. So we can actually take the numbers calculated for a ore price of US$80, since they were calculated without these savings. Using this number we can list the main sources of cash flow for Vale in 2015 as:
1> EBITDA from ferrous metals: US$ 4.4 billions
2> EBITDA from base metals (nickel, cupper, etc): US$ 3 billions
3> Disinvestments: Let's take the number of US$ 6.4 billion to match the investment in projects -- so we'll keep the value of the company's assets unchanged. This is inside the interval of 5 to 10 billion given in the last transcript.
But just as there are areas of the company that are generating cash, there are other areas which generate loses:
4> Debt interest: US$ 1.9 billion
5> CAPEX (Investments) in projects: US$ 6.4 billion
6> Sustaining CAPEX: US$ 3.8 billion
7> Loses generated by the coal unit (mostly in Mozambique): US$ 0.5 billions
8> Administration and other units which lose money: US$ 0.5 billions
9> Income Tax: Since the real will probably continue losing value in 2015 and Vale adds the exchange ratio change as an increase of its dollar debt when measured in reals, I assume Vale won't have to pay much income tax.
The final result of summing the cash flow generators and the cash flow consumers is free cash, which can be utilized to pay dividends. If the result is negative, then the company will have to increase its debt.
Summing the values above (the cash flow generators) totals US$ 13.8 billion and the cash flow consumers total US$ 13.1 billions. To pay even a minimal dividend of US$0.4 per share (much less than the traditional US$1 per stock), the company would need US$ 2 billion. If one further considers that we made several optimist assumptions here (that iron ore prices will stabilize, that Vale will indeed obtain the $10 per ton cost reductions in iron ore, that it will be able to sell such a high amount of assets $6.4 billions), I'm pretty pessimistic about what 2015 will brings for stockholders.
Current management's plans to solve this problem are also sub-optimal to say the least. To cover the hole in the accounts, they plan to sell part of the base metals division in an IPO. But this plan doesn't make economic sense, since the loss of part of the profits of one of the best units of the company will be worse than increased interest costs from more debt would be.
The IPO is projected to bring in $13 billion, which at a 4% interest rate would require only $520 million in interest payments. Issuing debt in euros would be the best choice under current market conditions since bond yields in euros are much lower than in dollars at the moment. On the other hand, the loss of 40% of the base metals profits will be a loss of 1.2 billion per year. This IPO will also make the company more dependent in iron, when it should try to be less dependent since the future prospects for this commodity don't look so good. Instead of doing the IPO, they should sell units which are loss-making, like the coal mines in Mozambique and decrease their CAPEX, which is still too high.
Bonds, long only, long-term horizon, dividend investing
Profile| Send Message| Follow (3 followers)
What Will 2015 Bring For Vale Stockholders?
Dec. 16, 2014 1:12 PM ET | 8 comments | About: Vale S.A. (VALE)
Disclosure: The author is long VALE. (More...)
Summary
The crash in iron ore prices will make for a very hard 2015 for producers, and Vale is one of them.
Vale's CAPEX plans, despite being smaller than in 2014, are still too high in the current market conditions.
Vale will need to increase its debt to pay dividends.
The big questions for those still long Vale (NYSE
ALE), as well as for those wondering if the crash in the value of this stock makes it a good contrarian bet, are: Ok, we know that iron ore is down, but in 2015 will Vale remain profitable? Will it pay a dividend? Will it be forced to increase its debt?Of course the key indicator which changes everything for Vale is the iron ore price, and depending on its rise and fall the company can do extremely well or quite badly. So let's suppose that in 2015 the value of iron ore will remain at similar prices as today -- let's say it will average US$70 in 2015. Lets also suppose that nickel, cupper, coal and fertilizer prices will all remain at the low levels seen at the end of this year. And using these assumptions, lets calculate what will happen to Vale and if it will have free cash to pay dividends.
Knowing how much EBITDA the ferrous metals division had in the last two quarters and the average iron ore price in the months of each quarter, and supposing a linear relationship, one can calculate how much money this division would make for lower ore prices such as the ones seen today. The table bellow shows exactly the values so calculated:
Date Iron Ore Ferrous Metals quarterly EBITDA Ferrous Metals annual EBITDA
US$ M US$ M US$
2Q14 103 3604 14416
3Q14 90 2411 9644
Calculated 80 1100 4400
Calculated 70 400 1600
Calculated 60 50 200
We suppose a ore price of US$70 for 2015, but in the last transcript Vale claims that it will have cost reductions in 2015 of US$ 10 per ton. So we can actually take the numbers calculated for a ore price of US$80, since they were calculated without these savings. Using this number we can list the main sources of cash flow for Vale in 2015 as:
1> EBITDA from ferrous metals: US$ 4.4 billions
2> EBITDA from base metals (nickel, cupper, etc): US$ 3 billions
3> Disinvestments: Let's take the number of US$ 6.4 billion to match the investment in projects -- so we'll keep the value of the company's assets unchanged. This is inside the interval of 5 to 10 billion given in the last transcript.
But just as there are areas of the company that are generating cash, there are other areas which generate loses:
4> Debt interest: US$ 1.9 billion
5> CAPEX (Investments) in projects: US$ 6.4 billion
6> Sustaining CAPEX: US$ 3.8 billion
7> Loses generated by the coal unit (mostly in Mozambique): US$ 0.5 billions
8> Administration and other units which lose money: US$ 0.5 billions
9> Income Tax: Since the real will probably continue losing value in 2015 and Vale adds the exchange ratio change as an increase of its dollar debt when measured in reals, I assume Vale won't have to pay much income tax.
The final result of summing the cash flow generators and the cash flow consumers is free cash, which can be utilized to pay dividends. If the result is negative, then the company will have to increase its debt.
Summing the values above (the cash flow generators) totals US$ 13.8 billion and the cash flow consumers total US$ 13.1 billions. To pay even a minimal dividend of US$0.4 per share (much less than the traditional US$1 per stock), the company would need US$ 2 billion. If one further considers that we made several optimist assumptions here (that iron ore prices will stabilize, that Vale will indeed obtain the $10 per ton cost reductions in iron ore, that it will be able to sell such a high amount of assets $6.4 billions), I'm pretty pessimistic about what 2015 will brings for stockholders.
Current management's plans to solve this problem are also sub-optimal to say the least. To cover the hole in the accounts, they plan to sell part of the base metals division in an IPO. But this plan doesn't make economic sense, since the loss of part of the profits of one of the best units of the company will be worse than increased interest costs from more debt would be.
The IPO is projected to bring in $13 billion, which at a 4% interest rate would require only $520 million in interest payments. Issuing debt in euros would be the best choice under current market conditions since bond yields in euros are much lower than in dollars at the moment. On the other hand, the loss of 40% of the base metals profits will be a loss of 1.2 billion per year. This IPO will also make the company more dependent in iron, when it should try to be less dependent since the future prospects for this commodity don't look so good. Instead of doing the IPO, they should sell units which are loss-making, like the coal mines in Mozambique and decrease their CAPEX, which is still too high.
Ultima modifica:
Fabrib
Forumer storico
Inflazione USA in calo oltre le attese.
https://it.finance.yahoo.com/notizie/flash-usa-l-inflazione-cala-134100386.html
https://it.finance.yahoo.com/notizie/flash-usa-l-inflazione-cala-134100386.html
