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Un commento da ML
The unconfirmed news of a possible IPO isn't that immediately positive for the bonds, in our view, on its own.
The real positive would be a purchase by either Caixabank or Santander.
The Portuguese press this morning is reporting that the Bank of Portugal is talking to both these banks still.
We note that Negocios is saying that a sale to investors from either Africa or China is less likely, because the ECB wouldn't be happy with such a shareholder.
If confirmed, this would rule out what we would have seen as a potentially negative scenario for bondholders re ownership.
More transparency
In Economico this morning, we are reading that the Bank of Portugal will be roadshowing Novo Banco later this month with a view to forming an institutional investor base for an eventual IPO.
This option is being run, we understand from the article, in parallel with the search for an industrial, bank, partner for Novo.
According to Economico, the idea is to complete a sale by July this year.
The roadshow will be in both Europe and the US.
All options are reportedly on the table. However, an IPO would require absolute transparency, we think, with respect to litigation risks that we understand still hang over Novo, given the various transfers of assets, inter alia, that have dogged the bank since August 2014 - potentially these could remain with the Resolution Fund, we think.
In fact, the newspaper says that the sale period for Novo was put back by the EC until August 2017 but that there is a desire to do it more quickly.
It is also noted that any sale will be under the authority of the ECB (which had not been particularly involved in the original resolution actions of BES/Novo), not the Bank of Portugal.
Another way out - not that we expect to need it
A listing would be welcomed by all bondholders, in our view.
Though we don't expect further resolution action at Novo/BES, we thought one of the 'problems' that led to the allocation of losses to senior bonds last December was the lack of a ready market for the equity of Novo.
Access to the equity market via a listing would therefore ultimately be a positive, we think.
BCP trades at a price-to-book multiple of 0.5x.
With stated book equity of €5.9bn, this could explain why the BoP Governor in a recent interview said that the bank was worth €3bn.
