Lone Star and the State could jointly own Novo Banco (ECO, Publico)
The Portuguese government is said to be considering co-investing with Lone Star in Novo Banco. Both parties could recapitalise Novo in a way that gives Lone Star a majorty stake in the bank, so that the entity loses its ‘bridge bank’ status (and does not need to be resolved by August 2017). In this context, the government would need to agree with the European Commission on the best way to complete its investment to minimise the impact on public finances. Publico reports today that the government’s investment could be channelled through the resolution fund. The fund could also invest in Novo alongside the government and Lone Star. According to ECO, Novo Banco could need €750mn of new capital over the course of 2016 to maintain capital ratios above the level required by the ECB. Together with a joint private/public capital injection, the government is said to also want to involve senior bondholders in the recapitalisation of the bank. A conversion of the senior debt into equity is also part of the plans submitted by Lone Star and the Apollo/Centerbridge Consortium, but it will be difficult to convince bondholders to become shareholders of the bank
This is the first time that the Portuguese press mentions a potential conversion of debt into equity. We struggle to see how bondholders would want to exchange their bonds for new equity in the bank on a voluntary basis a part of a wider recapitalisation plan. As we saw with Monte Paschi recently, bondholders always to choose to hold out in a voluntary exchange if there is sufficient confidence that there will be a last resort provider of capital for the bank.