Obbligazioni societarie La saga della famiglia Espírito Santo: cosa succederà alle obbligazioni BES ed ESFG?

Why have Portuguese government bonds rallied so much?
Last Friday S&P surprisingly upgraded Portugal’s rating from BB+ STABLE to BBB- STABLE. Exhibit 1 shows the ratings and next rating announcement dates.
The upgrade does not have any immediate implications: 1) Portugal requires another upgrade from either Moody’s or more realistically Fitch to be eligible for re-inclusion in some sovereign bond indices (Exhibit 2); 2) the ECB collateral framework is based on a best-of-four rule and hence DBRS’s IG rating already guaranteed the right to use Portuguese sovereign bonds at the borrowing facilities and QE eligibility.1
In our view investors most likely reacted aggressively to the expectation that Fitch will upgrade the country on 15 December paving the way for inclusion in bond indices.
 
Why have Portuguese government bonds rallied so much?
Last Friday S&P surprisingly upgraded Portugal’s rating from BB+ STABLE to BBB- STABLE. Exhibit 1 shows the ratings and next rating announcement dates.
The upgrade does not have any immediate implications: 1) Portugal requires another upgrade from either Moody’s or more realistically Fitch to be eligible for re-inclusion in some sovereign bond indices (Exhibit 2); 2) the ECB collateral framework is based on a best-of-four rule and hence DBRS’s IG rating already guaranteed the right to use Portuguese sovereign bonds at the borrowing facilities and QE eligibility.1
In our view investors most likely reacted aggressively to the expectation that Fitch will upgrade the country on 15 December paving the way for inclusion in bond indices.


Sarebbe una gran cosa anche per noi
 
Ho fatto un giochino per dimostrare quanto possa muoversi uno ZC e come il TDS PT possa essere amico o nemico.

Poniamo che lo ZC 2045 sia agganciato al PT 2045 TF : e che giri sempre 0,75% sopra al TDS.

Che valori possiamo ritrovarci ?

Oggi lo ZC 2045 sarebbe a 29 (TF a 3,74%) (in realtà abbiamo un midprice sul 23 basso)

Il 01/02/2017 sarebbe stato a 21 (TF a 5,14%)
Il 07/12/2016 sarebbe stato a 24 (TF a 4,42%)

E il 17/03/2015 ? a 41 (TF a 2,22%)
 

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