Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond case automobilistiche e accessorio auto (1 Viewer)

[Imark]

Arrivata la trimestrale di Daimler Q4/2008 e consuntivo 2008, più le stime per il 2009.

Non sono granché buoni, i risultati, ma forse meno peggio delle attese: ricavi in calo del 12% y-o-y, autovetture vendute del 22% (autoveicoli invece del 17%), con perdite nette per 1,95 mld euro comprensive tuttavia della perdita contabilizzata una tantum per effetto dell'azzeramento del valore della quota che Daimler ancora detiene in Chrysler (il 20%) e di una revisione del valore di loans accordati alla società all'atto della cessione della quota di maggioranza a Cerberus.

Ha deciso di tagliare il dividendo del 70% e di tagliare i costi mediante sospensioni della produzione e riduzione delle ore lavorate.

Per il 2009, prevede un calo del 10% delle vendite di nuove auto, mentre si dice impossibilitata a dare un forecast sui propri ricavi in considerazione delle attuali condizioni del mercato.

I bond per ora sembrano tenere piuttosto bene.

Daimler takes $1.9 bln loss after Chrysler charges
Mercedes Benz sales slump 22%; car maker slashes dividend, cuts costs



By Simon Kennedy, MarketWatch
Last update: 5:18 a.m. EST Feb. 17, 2009
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...A36C0C3-7DC0-4BAE-82CD-7CD4876CDCAE}#comments




LONDON (MarketWatch) -- German car maker Daimler on Tuesday said it swung to a net loss of 1.53 billion euros ($1.93 billion) in the final quarter of 2008 after a sharp drop in sales at its Mercedes-Benz division and heavy losses linked to its stake in Chrysler.



The car maker also slashed its dividend payout and offered a grim outlook for 2009.

.... (continua)...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={AA36C0C3-7DC0-4BAE-82CD-7CD4876CDCAE}

 

[Imark]

Vi posto questa Bloomberg perché riprende alcune delle risposte rese dal CEO di Daimler, Zetsche, all'atto della presentazione dei risultati. Zetsche ha azzardato una previsione su quando possibilmente il mercato automobilistico europeo potrebbe toccare il proprio punto più basso: per lui, ciò potrebbe accadere nella seconda metà del 2009. E' questa la prima previsione del genere che mi è capitato di leggere finora.

Le molte indicazioni di dettaglio sulle strategie di Daimler per fronteggiare la crisi ed il piccolo calendario sulle trimestrali del settore ancora da diffondere mi inducono apubblicare il pezzo per intero.

Daimler Slumps to Loss, Says Worse to Come as Recession Deepens

By Chris Reiter


Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Daimler AG, the world’s second- biggest maker of luxury cars, reported its first quarterly loss since 2007 on declining sales and costs from Chrysler LLC and said the recession will burden earnings further this year.

The fourth-quarter loss was 1.53 billion euros ($1.93 billion) compared with year-earlier net income of 1.7 billion euros, Stuttgart, Germany-based Daimler said in a statement today. Expenses from Chrysler, in which the company retains a 20 percent stake, wiped 2.01 billion euros from earnings.

Daimler suffered as the European economy contracted the most in 13 years in the quarter, helping to push revenue down 12 percent to 23.2 billion euros. Car sales in Europe plunged 27 percent to the lowest in two decades last month and contracted 37 percent to a 28-year low in the U.S., a key market for the company’s Mercedes-Benz luxury division.

Chief Executive Officer Dieter Zetsche said he aims to save “several-billion euros” this year by deepening production cuts to clear a glut of unsold cars, curbing spending on real estate, computers and administration and using more common parts across Daimler’s product range. He will also suspend an employee-share program, freeze pay for top managers and lower wage increases for 140,000 non-contract workers to save about 1.4 million euros a month.

No Mass Firings

Sales will probably fall an additional 10 percent in 2009 and the recession will impose “further substantial burdens” on earnings, with a clear loss likely for the current quarter, Zetsche said. The CEO ruled out mass firings and said the company will seek to reduce the workforce by not filling posts as people leave. Demand should be bolstered by new Mercedes E-, S- and GL-Class models due later this year, he said.

Daimler fell as much as 7.4 percent to 21.82 euros in Frankfurt before trading little changed at 23.54 euros as of 12:27 p.m. local time. The stock has fallen 12 percent this year, valuing the carmaker 22.5 billion euros.

“Their biggest opportunity to cut costs is to slow down the production machine and cut external expenses,” said Christoph Stuermer, an auto-industry analyst at IHS Global Insight in Frankfurt. “The organization is not overstaffed and they don’t have the appetite for major cost-slashing programs.”

The loss was Daimler’s first since the third quarter of 2007, when earnings were wiped out by 2.6 billion euros in costs from the sale of 80.1 percent of Chrysler. The U.S. carmaker’s burden on fourth-quarter earnings included a charge of 1.67 billion euros to write off the value of loans and other assets.

CEO Zetsche said he anticipates progress in talks with Cerberus Capital Management LP, Chrysler’s majority owner, on exiting the remaining stake. A planned tie-up between the U.S. company and Fiat SpA of Italy should aid that process, he said.

Staged Improvement

Zetsche said the decline in automotive markets may bottom out in the second half of this year and that there should be a step-by-step improvement in net income over the course of the 12 months.
Daimler has already reduced hours for about 36,000 assembly-line workers at its German factories for the first quarter. It last year slashed production by 45,000 cars and sport-utility vehicles, or 3.5 percent of its 2007 total of 1.3 million units. The company’s auto-making operations burned 3.9 billion of cash in 2008, mainly due to an abrupt fall in Mercedes car sales in the fourth quarter.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had predicted a net loss of 227 million euros. A loss of 277 million euros before interest and tax and excluding the Chrysler write off was lower than the 284 million euros predicted in the poll.

Peugeot, Renault Losses

Daimler is the first German carmaker to report figures for the final three months of 2008. Turin, Italy-based Fiat SpA said Jan. 22 that fourth-quarter profit fell 71 percent to 163 million euros. Paris-based PSA Peugeot Citroen, France’s biggest carmaker, reported a second-half loss of 1.08 billion euros and rival Renault SA revealed a 982 million-euro loss a week ago.

Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen AG, Europe’s biggest carmaker, will publish results on March 11 and Munich-based Bayerische Motoren Werke AG reports on March 18. BMW, the world’s largest maker of luxury cars, said on Feb. 6 that it will publish “clearly positive” 2008 earnings.

Daimler’s rival Mercedes-Benz Cars had a fourth-quarter loss of 359 million euros compared with a year-earlier 1.43 billion-euro profit. The unit, which also makes Maybach ultra- luxury vehicles and Smart minicars, was hurt by a 22 percent sales drop as it recorded the first deficit since the opening quarter of 2006.

Profit at the trucks division fell 83 percent to 86 million euros as hauliers halted purchases because of the economic slowdown. Daimler, which owns the Freightliner and Fuso truck brands, is cutting 3,500 jobs, closing two North American factories and eliminating the Sterling brand as part of a plan to save $900 million a year by 2011. The restructuring led to a charge of 233 million euros.

Daimler’s vans unit -- which from April will be run by Wolfgang Bernhard, a former company executive who is tipped as a possible successor to Zetsche -- performed best, with operating profit slipping only 1 percent to 158 million euros. Earnings from the buses division slid 38 percent to 69 million euros.

 

[yellow]

Notavo che anche guardando ai bond Renault, il rendimento di quelli corti continua ad essere decisamente modesto rispetto al rischio, IMHO, almeno se guardo i prezzi sui mercati retail tedeschi e c'è anche qui il discorso già visto per Fiat Finance e riguardante il differenziale di rendimento fra i bond taglio minimo 1k, movimentati dal retail, e quelli taglio minimo 50K.

La cosa si nota giusto un filo meno perché non ci sono sovrapposizioni così evidenti sulle scadenze, però la sostanza del discorso resta quella...

Il 4,625% Renault 05/2010 FR0000474843 (1k taglio min)
http://anleihen.onvista.de/snapshot.html?ID_INSTRUMENT=8428696

Il 4,5% Renault 04/2012 FR0010459388 (50k taglio min)
http://anleihen.onvista.de/snapshot.html?ID_INSTRUMENT=16582311

Il 4,375% Renault 05/2013 FR0010326942 (50k taglio min)
http://anleihen.onvista.de/snapshot.html?ID_INSTRUMENT=14605177

Notavi bene :

18.02.09 13:32 - Renault: Fitch taglia rating a BBB-, outlook negativo
LONDRA (MF-DJ)--Fitch ha tagliato il rating sul debito di lungo periodo di Renault da "BBB" a "BBB-", con outlook negativo.

Alla base della decisione dell'agenzia di rating il sostanziale aumento del debito finanziario della casa automobilistica e il deterioramento materiale dei requisiti del credito alla fine del 2008.

Fitch tiene inoltre conto il potenziale ulteriore rallentamento del profilo finanziario del gruppo.

 

[Imark]

Notavi bene :

18.02.09 13:32 - Renault: Fitch taglia rating a BBB-, outlook negativo
LONDRA (MF-DJ)--Fitch ha tagliato il rating sul debito di lungo periodo di Renault da "BBB" a "BBB-", con outlook negativo.

Alla base della decisione dell'agenzia di rating il sostanziale aumento del debito finanziario della casa automobilistica e il deterioramento materiale dei requisiti del credito alla fine del 2008.

Fitch tiene inoltre conto il potenziale ulteriore rallentamento del profilo finanziario del gruppo.

Ti dirò che a me è parso mooolto ottimistico l'outlook 2009 di Daimler... sarebbe grassa davvero se si scendesse come mercato automotive globale solo del 10%, ed anche in quel caso temo che la fascia premium farebbe peggio...

 

[yellow]

Ti dirò che a me è parso mooolto ottimistico l'outlook 2009 di Daimler... sarebbe grassa davvero se si scendesse come mercato automotive globale solo del 10%, ed anche in quel caso temo che la fascia premium farebbe peggio...

Ti hanno letto e.... :

18.02.09 15:15 - Daimler: Moody's taglia outlook su debito a negativo
FRANCOFORTE (MF-DJ)--Moody's ha tagliato l'outlook sul debito di lungo periodo di Daimler da stabile a negativo confermando il rating A3.

L'agenzia di rating ha fatto sapere che il taglio dell'outlook riflette il declino registrato da Daimler nei mercati chiave in cui opera e il deterioramento per quanto riguarda la generazione di utili e liquidita'.

Per l'agenzia di rating la crisi economica in atto potrebbe condurre ad un'erosione della flessibilita' finanziaria del gruppo tedesco nel medio periodo e portare quindi ad un downgrade del rating sul debito.

 

[Imark]

Eccolo il commento alla rating action... certo che anche il debito di Daimler scherza pochissimo... e pensare che l'allora strapagata Chrysler, che ha generato solo perdite nel bilancio di Daimler, adesso si porterebbe a casa per un piatto di lenticchie...

Leggevo stime secondo le quali nel 2010 la profittevolezza di Daimler potrebbe essere attorno a quella della Fiat pre-crisi, con un rating sul BBB/BBB-

Ad esempio, se guardi il dato dei veicoli industriali e pesanti, menziona un calo degli ordini Q4/2008 in termini del 49% e quella parte del business è molto profittevole... la parte industriale del business è già free cash flow negative nel 2008, ossia ha bruciato cassa già lo scorso anno e le stime di Moody's per il Q1/2009 sono per un calo delle autovetture del 20% e dei trucks abbondantemente sopra il 30%...

Anche i parametri in considerazione dei quali Moody's valuterà eventuali riduzioni future dei ratings non sono così improbabili a realizzarsi...

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's changes Daimler's outlook to negative and affirms the A3/P-2 ratings.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Approximately EUR56.7 Billion of Debt Affected. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Frankfurt, February 18, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today affirmed Daimler's A3 long term and Prime-2 short term ratings and changed the outlook to negative from stable. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Falk Frey, Senior Vice President and the lead analyst at Moody's for the European automotive sector, said: "The negative outlook reflects the more severe decline of Daimler's key markets than previously anticipated by magnitude as well as by pace which also resulted in a significant deterioration of the company's profitability and cash generation." Frey went on to say: "Moody's sees a rising risk that the current downturn could result in a deterioration of Daimler's financial flexibility over the medium term to an extent no longer sufficient for the current A3 rating category." [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In 2008, Daimler's consolidated revenues declined by 4% compared to 2007 driven by 12% lower revenues in the fourth quarter compared to Q4 2007. Mercedes-Benz Cars' unit sales declined by 22% in Q4 2008 compared to previous year's quarter resulting in a volume decline of 2% for fiscal year 2008 compared to 2007. Sales volumes for vans and busses also declined in Q4 2008 by 18% and 14% respectively, whereas Daimler Trucks delivered the same number of trucks than in Q4 2007. However, incoming orders for the division fell 49% in the last quarter 2008. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Daimler Group's reported EBIT 2008 was nearly €6.0 billion lower than in 2007 materially impacted by its 19.9% ownership in Chrysler leading to a €3.2 billion negative effect on EBIT. Moody's understands that going forward no negative impact from Chrysler's results nor impairments will occur. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The significant reduction in demand especially for cars and light vehicles resulted in a high cash consumption in the course of 2008. Reported free cash flow from the industrial business turned negative, consuming €3.9 billion in 2008, mainly driven by the increase in working capital of €3.8 billion. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Daimler has already announced measures to adjust production rates to the lower level of demand and reduce inventories as key initiatives to limit cash burn in 2009. Moody's will closely monitor progress in these efforts and the effects resulting from reducing fixed costs. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The negative outlook reflects (i) the risk of a more severe downturn in Daimler's key markets than anticipated, (ii) the adequacy of the planned downscaling of production as well as (iii) the challenge to reduce inventories to free up cash and (iv) the risk of declining prices resulting from high inventories, low capacity utilization rates and/or rising used trucks stocks. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's anticipates a further deterioration in Daimler's profitability and key credit metrics in the first quarter 2009 based on the company's car demand declining by around 20% and truck demand by significantly more than 30%. Moody's ratings anticipate a sequential improvement of volumes and cash flow generation in the subsequent quarters. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The ratings could come under further downward pressure however, in case of evidence that the market environment would turn worse than anticipated with regards to volumes or prices and the company's inability to adjust capacity measures in a timely and adequate manner resulting in a further sizable cash absorption by the industrial operations beyond €1.0 billion. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Daimler's ratings could be downgraded should there be no clear path of recovery of credit metrics beyond 2009 such as (i) EBITA margin in the industrial business below 5%, (ii) a continued negative free cash flow generation as well as (iii) a significant increase in leverage (Debt/EBITDA) to around 2.5x, resulting from higher debt levels and a weaker profitability, (iv) cash & marketable securities/Debt falling below 40% as well as (v) the inability to preserve financial services' conservative policies and profitability. [/FONT]

 

[Imark]

Comunque per non fare torto a nessuno, Moody's ha messo in creditwatch negative anche il rating di BMW ...

Stessi problemi come per Daimler.

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's places under review for possible downgrade BMW's A2/P-1 ratings[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Approximately EUR 28.9 Billion of Debt Affected. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Frankfurt, February 18, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today placed under review for possible downgrade BMW's A2 long term and Prime-1 short term ratings. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Falk Frey, Senior Vice President and the lead analyst at Moody's for the European automotive sector, said: "The review reflects the more severe decline of BMW's key automotive markets than previously anticipated by magnitude as well as by pace which also resulted in a much weaker unit sales volume than expected. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]As a result BMW's profitability and cash generation could deteriorate over the medium term to an extent materially below its current rating category." [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Revenues of BMW Group declined by 5.0% to €53.2 billion. Revenues in the Automobiles segment dropped by 9.4% to €48.8 billion compared to FY2007. The segment Motorcycles reported sales of €1.2 billion (+0.2%) and Financial Services revenues increased by 12.8% to €15.7 billion.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Unit sales volumes decreased by less than revenues in the Automobiles segment (-4.3%) indicating a deterioration in the Price/Mix towards smaller cars, also impacted by the decline in the 5-series that is due to be renewed soon. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Furthermore, BMW stated that there were no signs of stabilisation on the used car markets and consequently on residual values for vehicles coming of leases. During the first nine months 2008, the company has already booked charges for residual value impairment and credit losses totalling €1.0 billion with additional amounts that might be required in Q4 2008. Despite these challenges BMW expects to report clearly positive group earnings for FY2008.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In January 2009, unit sales decline continued to accelerate, with 22.1% less BMW brand vehicle sales and 34.5% lower unit sales of the MINI brand resulting in 24.2% less BMW Group Automobiles sold compared to previous year's month. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's review will focus on (i) the dimension and time horizon of the deterioration in BMW's financial metrics together with the potential cash consumption of the industrial businesses; (ii) the positive effects of counteractive measures the company has implemented in the course of 2008; (iii) the extent to which additional measures may be required (iv) the possible quantum of potential cash absorption by the industrial operations in the intermediate term (v) the company's plans to address funding needs permanently arising in the financial services division (vi) the residual value risks and its potential for further asset impairments as well as the impact of rising credit losses and higher funding costs for the company's financial services division.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's expects to conclude the review within a relatively short time period.[/FONT]

 

[Imark]

Riduzioni di rating come se piovesse: Fitch porta Peugeot al limite del IG e con outlook negativo, a causa dei cattivi risultati e, per l'outlook, dell'aspettativa che la situazione non è destinata a migliorare: Peugeot secondo Fitch è destinata ad avere un risultato operativo in peggioramento e a bruciare cassa sempre più pesantemente nel 2009.

Attenzione anche all'elemento del sostegno statale: se questo infatti per Fitch è elemento che supporta il rating, al punto che ove le misure annunciate si rivelassero insufficienti e non fossero rafforzate dal Governo, ciò accrescerebbe il rischio di downgrades, nello stesso tempo comincia ad avanzarsi un criterio valutativo analogo a quello visto per le banche o ancora di più per l'automotive USA.

Ossia, ove l'intervento statale dovesse avvenire a condizioni tali da penalizzare i creditori senior unsecured, ciò pure potrebbe portare a riduzione di taluni ratings...

Il ritmo al quale Peugeot ha bruciato cassa nell'H2/2008 si è rivelato molto più alto di quanto preventivato da Fitch, la quale anticipa che tale situazione difficilmente cambierà prima del 2010.

Nel 2009 secondo l'agenzia sarà molto difficile evitare un ulteriore indebolimento della metrica finanziaria di Peugeot (il forecast prevede posizione cash fortemente negativa, EBITDA in declino, limitate possibilità di tagliare il capex e la spesa in ricerca a sviluppo).

In positivo, la posizione cash per il breve termine è adeguata a fare fronte alle scadenze debitorie, rafforzata dalla possibilità di ottenere fino a 3 mld euro in prestiti governativi, in aggiunta a 3,2 mld euro di cassa disponibile a fine 2008 e da 8,4 mld in linee di credito disponibili (delle quali però 6 mld euro sono presso Banque PSA, la banca infragruppo).

Poiché la società stima il proprio fabbisogno finanziario in 4 mld euro per il 2009 prima del free cash flow, a meno che il consumo di cassa non sia davvero molto marcato, dovrebbe farcela a coprirle con la cassa interna ed il prestito statale.


Fitch Downgrades PSA to 'BBB-'; Outlook Negative

18 Feb 2009 7:26 AM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-London/Paris/Frankfurt-18 February 2009: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded Peugeot SA's (PSA) Long-term Issuer Default rating (IDR) and senior unsecured ratings to 'BBB-' (BBB minus) from 'BBB+'.

The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Negative. The Short-term IDR has been downgraded to 'F3' from 'F2'.


The downgrade reflects the deterioration in the group's financial profile particularly in the second half of 2008 and Fitch's expectations that it will continue to worsen materially in 2009, as a result of weakening operating profit and negative free cash-flow (FCF) generation.

The Negative Outlook reflects uncertainties regarding the timing and extent of any recovery in the group's financial profile.

Further rating pressure could resume if the company consumes cash at the rate expected by Fitch in 2009 and beyond. Rating pressure could also accelerate if recently announced government support measures prove insufficient and/or are not implemented at all or on time. Likewise, any government support with negative implications for senior unsecured creditors could lead to negative rating actions.

As expected by Fitch, PSA reported poor results for 2008, with falling operating results and a swing from a net cash to a net debt position for the group's industrial operations.

Cash generation was worse than anticipated by the agency and led to considerably weaker credit metrics. The net debt position of PSA's industrial operations was EUR2.9bn, up from EUR1.3bn at end-H108 and from a EUR0.7bn net cash position at FYE07.

Although a major part of the debt increase in 2008 was due to working capital requirements, these requirements are unlikely to ease before 2010.

Fitch forecasts substantial negative FCF in 2009 on the back of these major working capital movements, the expected further weakening of underlying EBITDA and limited cuts in capex and R&D expenses. This should lead to continued deterioration in credit metrics.

However, the group is taking several measures to limit cash erosion, including a clear focus on cash management and the acceleration of restructuring measures.

In addition, the recently announced emergency financing by the French government of up to EUR7bn to the domestic auto industry will help support PSA's liquidity.

PSA and Renault SA ('BBB-' (BBB minus), Negative Outlook) will receive each EUR3bn in five-year maturity loans. In addition, their finance services subsidiaries can now borrow from government entity SFEF up to EUR1bn, compared to EUR500m previously. PSA reported EUR3.2bn in cash and cash equivalents at FYE08 and approximately EUR8.4bn of available credit lines with banks at FYE08 (including EUR6bn at Banque PSA Finance).

PSA estimates the funding needs for its industrial operations to be approximately EUR4bn in 2009, before FCF. These should be covered by the French government loan and PSA's cash position.

 

[Imark]

E sempre per non fare torto a nessuno, Fitch ha portato ai limiti dell'IG anche Renault....

Motivazioni fotocopia rispetto a quelle già viste per Peugeot e considerazioni analoghe sul ruolo del sostegno statale.

E tuttavia Renaul sta messa peggio di Peugeot, esseno per essa sancito che si trova nella fascia bassa del rating BBB-, con una flessibilità finanziaria già molto bassa per tale rating, ergo basterà un peggioramento anche lieve della metrica finanziaria a sancire il passaggio all'HY.

Peraltro quelli di Renault sono riusciti a chiudere il 2008 con una posizione debitoria netta che lascia davvero perplessi, fra cassa bruciata, investimenti che sarebbe stato forse opportuno posporre e ingenti perdite di cambio su debito denominato in yen (e sul quale evidentemente non era stato fatto hedging).

L'esito di quanto appena detto è un drammatico deterioramento della metrica finanziaria: il leverage così come calcolato da Fitch schizza così dall'1,7x di fine 2007 al 4x di fine 2008 mentre crolla la capacità di generare liquidità a copertura del debito netto.

Per Fitch il piano di azione predisposto da Renault per il 2009 e fatto di taglio ai costi e di una gestione più parca della liquidità disponibile e generazione di ulteriori sinergie con Nissan servirà a qualcosa ma non a molto: nel 2009 Renault continuerà a bruciare cassa per effetto di un calo del volume delle vendite e di una bassa profittevolezza.

Circa la posizione di liquidità al netto della cassa che brucerà nel 2009, Renault stima di necessitare di fondi per 3,5 mld euro e dispone di 2,1 mld in cash e di linee di credito per 8,2 mld euro (di cui 4,45 mld euro presso la banca infragruppo, RCI Banque) per cui, valendosi del prestito statale per 3 mld euro, di un finanziamento EIB per 0,4 mld euro e della propria cassa, dovrebbe essere in grado di fare fronte.



Fitch Downgrades Renault to 'BBB-'; Outlook Negative

18 Feb 2009 7:26 AM (EST)


Fitch Ratings-London/Paris/Frankfurt-18 February 2009: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded Renault SA's (Renault) Long-term Issuer Default (IDR) and senior unsecured ratings to 'BBB-' (BBB minus) from 'BBB'. The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Negative.


The downgrade reflects a substantial increase in the group's financial debt and the material deterioration in credit metrics at end-2008. Fitch has also taken into account the potential for further weakening in Renault's financial profile in 2009, as reflected in the Negative Outlook.

Financial flexibility within the current rating is low.

Another negative rating action could be triggered if negative cash generation worsens beyond Fitch's expectations in 2009 and if Renault is unable to take appropriate measures to counter deteriorating credit metrics.

Rating pressure could also accelerate if recently-announced government support measures prove insufficient and/or are not implemented at all or on time. Likewise, any government support with negative implications for senior unsecured creditors could lead to negative rating actions.

Net financial debt from industrial operations increased to EUR7.9bn at FYE08, from EUR2.1bn at FYE07 and EUR3.5bn at end-H108, due to falling operating profit (EUR212m in 2008 versus EUR1.4bn in 2007), negative cash flow from operations (CFO), the investment in AvtoVAZ (EUR660m), dividend payment (EUR1bn) and adverse currency effects (EUR1.6bn) on yen-denominated debt.

The debt increase has resulted in sharply deteriorating leverage and CFO coverage (industrial operations), which is inconsistent with a 'BBB' IDR.

Fitch estimates lease-adjusted net leverage to have risen to nearly 4x at FYE08 from 1.2x at FYE07. CFO/lease-adjusted net debt fell to less than 5% from 96% at FY07.

Fitch has taken into consideration the group's action plan for 2009, including its focus on cash flow management and further cost reduction.

Although Fitch anticipates further negative free cash-flow in 2009 as a result of further sale declines, weakening profitability and cuts in production, as well as lower contribution from associate Nissan Motor Corp ('BBB+'/Negative/'F2'), this should be mitigated by a reduction in capex and R&D expenses, a suspension of dividend payment and additional synergies to be extracted from the alliance with Nissan.

The recently announced emergency financing by the French government of up to EUR7bn to the domestic auto industry will help support Renault's liquidity.

Peugeot SA ('BBB-' (BBB minus)/Negative/'F3') and Renault will each receive EUR3bn in five-year maturity loans. In addition, their finance services subsidiaries can now borrow from government entity SFEF up to EUR1bn, compared to EUR500m previously. The group reported EUR2.1bn in cash and cash equivalents at FYE08 and approximately EUR8.2bn of undrawn credit lines with banks at FYE08 (including EUR4.45 undrawn at RCI Banque).

Renault estimates the funding needs for its industrial operations to be approximately EUR3.5bn in 2009, before FCF.

These should be covered by the French government loan, a EUR0.4bn new loan from the European Investment Bank and Renault's cash position.

 

[Capirex85]

Proprio come immaginavo... presto vedremo un bel pò di fallen angels

La speranza di Daimler che il mercato si riprenda già dalla 2H2009 è la sperenza dei nudi che l'inverno sia mite.