Auto: Moody's, alza outlook settore globale da stabile a positivo
FRANCOFORTE (MF-DJ)--L'agenzia di rating Moody's ha rivisto l'outlook sul
settore dell'auto a livello mondiale a positive da stable.
La variazione sull'outlook riflette le aspettative di Moody's sulle
condizioni di credito nel settore per i prossimi 12-18 mesi.
I trend di volumi, domanda e prezzi nel settore dell'auto sono stati
superiori a quelli previsti dall'agenzia, soprattutto in Cina e Brasile,
mentre il Europa Occidentale il mercato sta tendendo", ha affermato Falk
Frey, Senior Vice President di Corporate Finance Group di Moody's
precisando che "gli Usa stanno uscendo dalla crisi e il Giappone beneficia
ancora degli incentivi".
Infine, secondo le conclusioni dell'agenzia, "la ripresa del settore
sembra piu' rapida rispetto alla tendenza generale dell'economia, anche se
l'agenzia continuera' a monitorare l'andamento dellacrisi europea per
valutare l'impatto sul settore auto".
red/est/sm
(fine)
MF-DJ NEWS
19 mag 2010 12:33
La rating action compartimentale... non vorrei peccassero di ottimismo...
Moody's changes outlook on global auto industry to positive from stable
Demand and pricing trends are driving improvements
Frankfurt, May 19, 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service has today announced that it has changed the outlook for the global automotive industry to positive from stable. This outlook expresses Moody's expectations for the fundamental credit conditions in the industry over the next 12-18 months.
Today's change in the industry-wide outlook was prompted by Moody's view that trends in volumes, demand and prices in the auto industry have recovered faster than the rating agency had anticipated earlier in the year. "Indeed, volumes in China and Brazil in particular have improved, and western Europe is holding up better than expected so far," says Falk Frey, Senior Vice President in Moody's Corporate Finance Group. "Moreover, the US is on track toward recovery and Japan continues to benefit from incentives," Mr. Frey adds.
As regards unit sales of global light vehicles, Moody's has raised its base case forecast for 2010 largely based on continued strong demand in China. Specifically, the rating agency expects global unit sales volumes of 67.6 million -- or a 5.5% increase over 2009 unit sales -- compared with its previous forecast of 65.3 million units, or a 2% increase.
Although Moody's view of light vehicle unit sales in Western Europe has improved, the rating agency still expect them to decline vs. 2009, mainly due to the end of government scrapping schemes. Moody's also expects European volumes to decline by 12% in 2010, compared with its earlier forecast of a 15% drop.
In terms of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), Moody's believes that greater demand, together with the effect of re-stocking, will lead to better capacity utilization rates and thus improved profitability. Moody's views the situation as further developed in the US, where restructuring has led to meaningful cuts in capacity, compared with Europe, where structural capacity changes have yet to occur. Moreover, the rating agency says that rising prices of raw materials, especially steel, could become a concern for OEMs towards the end of 2010. "Overall, the industry will still be operating at below break-even operating profit levels in 2010," predicts Mr. Frey.
According to Moody's, the price/mix effect is becoming more favourable for auto manufacturers. The government-sponsored incentives that propped up sales of smaller cars have largely been phased out. Consumers are again purchasing larger vehicles, or adding expensive options to smaller, more fuel-efficient cars.
"Overall, in view of the volatile nature of the industry's demand cycles, the recovery in the global auto sector appears to be stronger than that of the broader economy in many regions," says Mr. Frey. However, in Europe, Moody's will monitor the impact of the sovereign debt crisis in terms of the availability of funding for the financing arms of the car companies as well as further economic recovery .
