Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Chimica Europa

[Imark]

Downgrade su Rhodia, che passa a rating BB- per S&P.

Dipendendo dalla profondità e dalla durata della crisi in essere nei comparti della chimica in cui è presente Rhodia (tutti piuttosto ciclici) nonché del business della cessione dei carbon credits (i cui prezzi analogamente si prospettano deboli per qualche tempo a venire) e dal più generale andamento del ciclo della liquidità (per l'HY, fondamentale è cercare di capire se effettivamente il default rate farà il picco verso fine anno e se le condizioni del mercato della liquidità miglioreranno con tempistiche analoghe), Rhodia potrebbe rivelarsi interessante per il dopo.

Presenta infatti alcuni elementi che potrebbero farne oggetto di acquisto sui titoli obbligazionari a suo tempo (scadenze debitorie lontane, presumibile generazione di FOCF anche durante il downturn, sebbene su liveli modesti, pochi problemi in apparenza - anche in prospettiva, secondo S&P - nel soddisfare i covenant ai quali è subordinata l'effettiva utilizzabilità delle linee di credito disponibili).

Addirittura, secondo S&P, dovrebbe essere in grado di distribuire dividendi nel 2009-2010, senza risentirne troppo marcatamente sul piano dei livelli di cash disponibile.

I rischi sono legati ad un eventuale ulteriore peggioramento dell'andamento dell'EBITDA nel prossimi due trimestri rispetto al primo, dalla eventualità che si vada a consumare cassa e che si verifichino situazioni problematiche sul piano della capacità di soddisfare i covenant sulle linee di credito.

Rhodia Lowered To 'BB-' On Weaker Prospects And Metrics; Outlook Stable

PARIS (Standard & Poor's) April 30, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has lowered to 'BB-' from 'BB' its long-term corporate credit rating on France-based chemicals producer Rhodia S.A. We affirmed the 'B' short-term credit rating. The outlook is stable.

"The rating action reflects our opinion that key cash flow metrics and free cash flow generation will be under pressure in 2009 and 2010 at least, given weaker demand tied notably to the automotive end market," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Lucas Sévenin.

We are also concerned by carbon credit prices which we assume will remain low in 2009 and 2010 at least, given lower demand. On the supportive side, we anticipate that free operating cash flow (FOCF) will remain somewhat positive in 2009 and 2010, thanks notably to carbon credits, which we expect to remain the main cash flow source.

We also view the group's liquidity as adequate, given material cash levels and availability under committed lines, no major debt due before 2013, and expected covenant compliance.

"The stable outlook reflects our expectations that the group will retain, in 2009 and 2010, material cash levels, comply with all covenants with adequate leeway, and that discretionary cash flows after taking into account acquisitions and shareholder distributions would be slightly negative at worst," said Mr. Sévenin.

We view adjusted FFO to debt of above 15% as commensurate with the current rating. However, we do not expect this to be achieved in 2009, but only in 2010. This mirrors our current base scenario under which demand would sequentially improve in the second half of 2009 and in full-year 2010.

Rating pressures would appear if EBITDA does not clearly improve in the next two quarters compared with the first, if covenant headroom falls to low levels, or if FOCF becomes clearly negative.

 

[cangiante]

ciao Mark,
Rhodia è tra l'altro un'azienda che seguo con interesse da tempo.
Ma la domanda che vorrei fare a te e a chiunque vorra' intervenire è questa: se il picco dei default sara' verso fine anno mi chiedo in che contesto si ponga l'appetito per il rischio in forte aumento in queste settimane?
La crisi sta finendo? la liquidita' sta tornando ai livelli pre crisi?
Boh...

 

[Imark]

Si conferma invece nell'analisi di S&P il carattere tendenzialmente aciclico del business degli industrial & medical gases (quello di L'Air Liquide e di Linde) di cui pure, già sul FOL, si era parlato molte volte.

Basti pensare che, per L'Air Liquide, il fatturato risulta calato nel Q1/2009 y-o-y del 3%, a fronte dei veri e propri tracolli registrati dalle società attive nei comparti della chimica a maggiore ciclicità, nonostante una forte riduzione dei volumi e un calo nella nicchia dei gas in uso nell'elettronica.

A ciò hanno concorso, fra l'altro, la forte crescita nel segmento dei gas medicali e le clausole contrattuali della fornitura dei gas che impongono a carico del cliente l'acquisto di quantitativi minimi periodici (take-or-pay).

A fronte di un modesto indebolimento delle vendite e della profittevolezza nel 2009, il piano di taglio dei costi, incrementato negli obiettivi a conseguire una riduzione di 300 mln euro l'anno, appare più che adeguato a compensarne l'impatto.

Rating confermati dunque per L'Air Liquide ed outlook stabile.

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]L'Air Liquide S.A. 'A/A-1' Ratings Affirmed On Resilience To Economic Downturn; Outlook Stable[/FONT]

FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) April 30, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it affirmed its 'A' long-term and 'A-1' short-term corporate credit ratings on France-based industrial and medical gas supplier L'Air Liquide S.A. The outlook is stable.

"The ratings reflect the company's leading position in the profitable and predictable industrial gases industry," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Tobias Mock. "However, they are constrained by the capital intensiveness of the business, the company's increased capital expenditures, and a shareholder-friendly financial policy, which will hinder further debt reduction."

With sales of about €13.1 billion for the year ended 2008, Air Liquide is the world's largest supplier of industrial and medical gases, slightly ahead of Linde AG (BBB+/Positive/A-2).

Air Liquide's sales in the first three months of 2009 declined only moderately by 3%, despite substantially lower volumes sold and strong declines in the electronics business. The company's resilience to the downturn was mainly attributable to its take-or-pay contracts in the onsite business, unit start–ups in large industries, and sustained growth in the health care sector.

We expect profitability and sales development to show some weakness in 2009 as a result of the weak economic conditions, but to remain modest in comparison with the decline we expect for chemical companies in general.

For 2009, Air Liquide has stepped up its cost-saving and efficiency improvement program ALMA to achieve savings of €300 million. It is taking several precautionary measures to manage cash management, contain costs, and secure financing, which should help it slightly improve its credit metrics closer to the target levels.

"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Air Liquide will balance its capital expenditures, acquisitions, dividends, and share buybacks to achieve cash flow protection ratios commensurate with the assigned rating," said Mr. Mock.

This includes FFO to debt of 35%-40%. In the currently weak economic environment, we would expect that lower capital expenditures will largely compensate for lower operating cash flow generation and that the
company will come close to reaching the low end of the cash flow protection ratios that we view as commensurate for the assigned rating

 

[Imark]

ciao Mark,
Rhodia è tra l'altro un'azienda che seguo con interesse da tempo.
Ma la domanda che vorrei fare a te e a chiunque vorra' intervenire è questa: se il picco dei default sara' verso fine anno mi chiedo in che contesto si ponga l'appetito per il rischio in forte aumento in queste settimane?
La crisi sta finendo? la liquidita' sta tornando ai livelli pre crisi?
Boh...

Secondo me, è il rilassamento per essere sopravvissuti al fallout di Lehman. Il rischio che da quel default originassero altri analoghi episodi era concreto, e non si è avverato. La fiducia tuttavia è ancora fragile, anche perché il deleverage del sistema finanziario è ancora in corso, ed è facile che non manchino altri episodi critici.

Direi poi che siamo ancora molto distanti - ed è un bene - dall'appetito per il rischio visto nel periodo 2005-1/H 2007. Chissà se basterà un decennio per tornare ad una situazione analoga a quella.

 

[Imark]

Addirittura Linde (sempre gas industriali e medicali) si becca da S&P un miglioramento dell'outlook (che di questi tempi, per gli emittenti della chimica...)

S&P valuta infatti verosimile un miglioramento nella metrica finanziaria del produttore tedesco nel prossimo biennio, a partire dai già buoni risultati raggiunti a fine 2008 in termine di copertura del debito in % dal cash generato nonché di leverage.

In realtà questi risultati sono già in linea con quanto richiesto per un upgrade del rating, ma resta qualche rischio di arretramento legato all'andamento della situazione economica, che se dovesse evolvere in una recessione prolungata o assistere al default di un numero significativo di clienti di Linde, potrebbe minarne la capacità di generazione di cash flow.

Linde AG Outlook Revised To Positive On Expectation Of Continuously Solid Balance Sheet; 'BBB+/A-2' Ratings Affirmed

FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) April 30, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it revised its outlook on Germany-based industrial gases producer Linde AG to positive from stable. The 'BBB+' long-term and 'A-2' short-term corporate credit ratings were affirmed.

"The outlook revision reflects our opinion that Linde is likely to maintain cash flow coverage ratios and a financial policy exceeding the levels commensurate for the 'BBB+' rating sustainably in the coming years, which would therefore support a higher rating," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Tobias Mock.

We consider Linde's business model significantly more capable of managing the current economic difficulties than most of its chemical peers because it has a significant amount of long-term take-or-pay contracts and strong regional and end-market diversity.

It is also in a position to benefit from positive long-term trends toward improved energy efficiency and environmental standards as well as growing industrial gas consumption per capita in emerging markets.

Although we regard it likely that Linde's sales and operating profit could decline in 2009, we still believe the company will continue to show credit metrics more in line with an 'A-' rating as a result of solid cash
flows and the benefits attained from its performance improvement program, named HPO (High Performance Organization).

According to our calculations, Linde's funds from operations (FFO) to debt reached 30.7% and debt to EBITDA 2.8x as of year-end 2008.

We expect the company to largely maintain its net financial debt level in the coming years and credit metrics to show slight improvements as a result of improving profitability and business growth resulting from continuously high investments.

"We consider the ratings on Linde are likely to improve if the company can slightly improve its current cash flow protection ratios on a sustainable basis," said Mr. Mock. Cash flow metrics in line with an 'A-' rating would be FFO to debt of 30%-35% and debt to EBITDA of below 3x.

However, the currently difficult market conditions present some risks in the event of substantial customer defaults or a prolonged recession scenario, which would likely negatively affect the company's cash flow generation

 

[Imark]

Visro che K+S riscuote un certo interesse... l'analisi di Moody's sui dati recenti potrebbe costituire un punto di partenza.

Release: Moody's rates K+S Baa2, outlook stable

London, 28 April 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned a long term issuer rating of Baa2 to K+S AG, a Germany-based producer of potash fertilizer and salt. The rating outlook is stable. This is the first time that Moody's has rated K+S.


The Baa2 issuer rating for K+S recognizes the company's (i) strong market positions in potash fertilizers (n°1 in Europe and n°4 worldwide), (ii) good access to a diversified portfolio of potash mines with long reserve life and limited political risk ensuring smooth operation and limited production outage risks, (iii) conservative balance sheet structure supported by strong potash prices and healthy demand in the recent past even after taking into account the fully debt funded acquisition of Morton Salt, (iv) experienced management with all members of the board having long term fertilizer industry experience, and (v) adequate level of diversification through its salt and fertiva operations. The rating of K+S is also supported by sound medium to long term potash market dynamics underpinned by a high degree of industry concentration, barriers-to-entry in the form of limited access to reserves and favourable demographical trends.


The rating remains constrained by K+S's (i) exposure to the potentially cyclical and capital intensive potash fertilizer industry, which requires sizeable investments to maintain production capacity and exposes producers to swings in demand and prices, (ii) strong asset bias towards Germany which exposes the company to a less flexible cost and labour base compared to international competitors and foreign exchange exposure, (iii) environmental constraints imposed on the group by both the federal and regional governments in Germany, and (iv) operating leverage which has proved beneficial in the cyclical upturn but would expose the company to a downturn in demand or prices. The rating also factors in the possibility of both pricing and demand softness in the short term due to macroeconomic weakness currently experienced across the company's core markets.


The Baa2 long term issuer rating also takes into account the rating positioning of K+S compared to its rated peers Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (Baa1, Stable outlook), Agrium (Baa2, Ratings under Review for Downgrade), The Mosaic Company (Baa3, Positive outlook upgraded from Ba1 in July 2008), and Yara (Baa2, Stable outlook).


Moody's further notes that the recently announced offer of K+S to acquire US-based salt producer, Morton Salt, for a total consideration of USD1,675 million will improve the business profile of the group through (i) an improved geographical diversification underpinned by a lower dependence on its domestic German market and on Europe, (ii) a better earnings and cash flow distribution between the salt and fertilizer activities of the group, and (iii) an improved diversification of the salt activities into industrial and consumer applications.

While the transaction should be dilutive at closing in terms of operating margins in the context of very strong potash prices and demand we view this transaction as improving the credit profile of the group through the cycle.


The liquidity profile of the group is expected to be adequate upon closing of the acquisition of Morton Salt. Moody's expects the liquidity needs over the next twelve months consisting primarily of capex funding and working capital financing requirements to be covered from operating cash flows. The acquisition of Morton Salt has been fully underwritten by three banks.

The transaction is expected to be funded with (i) EUR500 million 18-month bridge facilities, (ii) EUR300 million 3-year amortising term loan, and (iii) EUR600 million 3-year revolving credit facilities.

Moody's will closely monitor K+S's strategy to take out the bridge facilities and the timely implementation of this strategy over the next twelve to eighteen months.


The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that K+S will continue to benefit from supportive demand and supply dynamics in its key potash fertilizer market and will maintain strong debt and cash flow metrics in the short to medium term through prudent balance sheet and risk management.

Positive rating pressure in the future would arise if K+S is able to demonstrate an extended track record of resilience to volatility in prices and demand with debt and cash flow metrics maintained at high levels (RCF to Net Debt and Free Cash Flow to Net Debt respectively in the mid thirties and mid teens) through the cycle.


Headquartered in Kassel, Germany, K+S AG is the world's fourth largest potash fertilizer producer and the world's largest salt producer (pro-forma of the acquisition of Morton Salt). The company is vertically-integrated and operates six potash mines as well as eleven salt mines in Germany, the Netherlands and Latin America.

K+S reported revenues of EUR4,794 million and an EBITDA of EUR1,484 million for the fiscal year ended 31st December 2008. The company employed 12,214 employees in 2008

 

[lorenzo63]

Aggiornamento

 

[Imark]

Molto buono, Lorenzo...

 

[lorenzo63]

Molto buono, Lorenzo...

Si, ma sono nelle canne ancora...Adesso sono scomparsi i rendimenti ... i hate bill (gates e il suo polimorfismo ereditario del ...zzo)

 

[Imark]

BASF, il calo del rating deciso da Fitch. In realtà la situazione del leverage non desta problema, ed anche il deterioramento della metrica finanziaria denunciato da Fitch si rivela facilmente reversibile una volta che BASF andasse ad adottare politiche meno "shareholders friendly".

In prospettiva, la quota di attività di BASF maggiormente soggette alla ciclicità che in generale appartiene del comparto chimico è stimata in misura pari al 40%, e per queste il calo dei volumi e la compressione dei margini, secondo Fitch, è destinata a prolungarsi nei trimestri prossimi.

Segnalo che Fitch ha rimosso i rating di Ciba dopo averli equiparati a quelli di BASF a seguito del completamento del processo di acquisizione.

Fitch Downgrades BASF to 'A+'; Outlook Negative

29 Apr 2009 5:00 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London-29 April 2009: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded BASF SE's (BASF) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating to 'A+' from 'AA-' (AA minus). The Short-term IDR has been downgraded to 'F1' from 'F1+'. The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Negative.

The downgrade reflects the gradual deterioration in BASF's financial profile as a result of its shareholder-friendly policies and its acquisitive strategy. It also reflects Fitch's expectation that difficult market conditions will erode BASF's earnings, leading to a weakening in its credit metrics through the cycle to levels commensurate with a 'A+' rating.

In FY08, BASF paid out EUR3.8bn towards dividends and shareholder buybacks against cash flow from operations (CFO) of EUR5bn. Taking into account the EUR3.8bn acquisition of Swiss chemicals company, CIBA Specialty Chemicals Holdings Inc. (CIBA), Fitch estimates that BASF's adjusted net debt/EBITDAR increased to 1.4x at FYE08 from 1x at FYE07.

At the same time, EBITDA fell 44.6% y-o-y in Q408 and EBITDA margin was down at 9.8% (versus 17.2% a year earlier). FY08 EBITDA margin contracted to 16.8% from 18.3% in FY07.

Fitch expects BASF on 30 April to report significant deterioration in its Q109 operating earnings, margins and funds from operations, in line with trends observed in Q408 and with the news flow from the company over the past few weeks.

BASF's portfolio of chemicals contains around 40% of commodity products, the bulk of which are under severe volume and pricing pressure with no recovery in sight, as evidenced by the temporary shutdown of the smallest steam cracker in Ludwigshafen in April.

Additionally, the specialty chemicals component of the group's revenues is heavily exposed to the sharp downturn in the automotive, construction and textile end-markets globally. Capacity reductions implemented in late 2008 have been maintained in Q109, indicating that market conditions have yet to improve.

Finally, the oil & gas business which has in recent years become a dominant earnings contributor (46% of FY08 reported EBITDA) and supported profitability well above the sector average, will be impacted by the drop in hydrocarbon prices and by the global economic slowdown.

Fitch notes, however, that time lag effects on contract prices for natural gas (estimated 55% of E&P volumes in FY08) and new E&P developments should somewhat mitigate the deterioration in the oil & gas division's performance.

The Negative Outlook reflects Fitch's view that a more pronounced and protracted deterioration in market conditions and/or an aggressive stance in the group's financial policy could further impair its financial flexibility and its ability to protect liquidity, both of which are regarded as critical by Fitch The ratings also recognise BASF's product and geographical diversification, its leading market positions, long-standing customer relationships, integrated operating model (Verbund), sound liquidity and capital structure, and demonstrated access to the capital markets.

These factors together provide BASF with the flexibility to manage tough operating conditions and should mitigate the downside risk to the group's free cash flow generation. In line with peers, BASF has announced measures to preserve cash in FY09 (capex curbed by 20%, no share buybacks) and should benefit from working capital relief from lower activity levels and reduced feedstock costs.

Separately, Fitch has today resolved the Rating Watch Positive on subsidiary, CIBA Specialty Chemicals Holdings Inc. (CIBA). CIBA's Long-term IDR and senior unsecured rating have been upgraded to 'A+' from 'BBB' and the Short-term IDR has been upgraded to 'F1' from 'F3'. The IDRs have been simultaneously withdrawn while the senior unsecured on CIBA's outstanding bonds will be maintained for the duration of those bonds.