ETC Natural Gas (58 lettori)

[NEO_99]

Natural gas futures may decline as milder weather crimps demand for the heating fuel, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Nine of 14 analysts, or 64 percent, forecast that gas futures will fall on the New York Mercantile Exchange through April 29. Three, or 21 percent, said futures will rise and two predicted that prices will stay the same. Last week, 40 percent of participants said gas prices would advance.
Warmer-than-normal weather is likely in the Northeast and part of the Great Lakes region next week, according to MDA EarthSat Weather in Rockville, Maryland. Temperatures may be as much as 14 degrees above normal in the mid-Atlantic, MDA said.
“Some of the factors driving up prices this week are going to go away,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst with PFGBest in Chicago. “I do think we’ll see some seasonal spring temperatures.”
Natural gas for May delivery climbed 20.8 cents, or 5 percent, to settle at $4.412 per million British thermal units this week on the New York exchange. The exchange will be closed for Good Friday.
The high temperature in New York on April 26 may be 70 degrees Fahrenheit (21 Celsius), 6 above normal, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.
The gas survey has correctly forecast the direction of prices 48 percent of the time since its June 2004 introduction.
Bloomberg’s survey of natural-gas analysts and traders asks for an assessment of whether Nymex natural-gas futures will probably rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week. This week’s results were:
RISE FALL NEUTRAL

3 9 2

 

[William_Delbert_Gann]

A ragà lo short squeeze del silver di cui parlava Max Kaiser non era mica una bufala

Lev silver a quasi +15% in un solo giorno. Riposto il video per chi se lo era perso...

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCM7rMIqxmk]YouTube - Max Keiser: Crash JP Morgan - Buy Silver![/ame]

 

[maxgas]

Natural gas futures may decline as milder weather crimps demand for the heating fuel, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Nine of 14 analysts, or 64 percent, forecast that gas futures will fall on the New York Mercantile Exchange through April 29. Three, or 21 percent, said futures will rise and two predicted that prices will stay the same. Last week, 40 percent of participants said gas prices would advance.
Warmer-than-normal weather is likely in the Northeast and part of the Great Lakes region next week, according to MDA EarthSat Weather in Rockville, Maryland. Temperatures may be as much as 14 degrees above normal in the mid-Atlantic, MDA said.
“Some of the factors driving up prices this week are going to go away,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst with PFGBest in Chicago. “I do think we’ll see some seasonal spring temperatures.”
Natural gas for May delivery climbed 20.8 cents, or 5 percent, to settle at $4.412 per million British thermal units this week on the New York exchange. The exchange will be closed for Good Friday.
The high temperature in New York on April 26 may be 70 degrees Fahrenheit (21 Celsius), 6 above normal, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.
The gas survey has correctly forecast the direction of prices 48 percent of the time since its June 2004 introduction.
Bloomberg’s survey of natural-gas analysts and traders asks for an assessment of whether Nymex natural-gas futures will probably rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week. This week’s results were:
RISE FALL NEUTRAL

3 9 2

buon giorno a tutti.
quindi gli americani potrebbero anche far ritracciare il future in maniera consistente

 

[NEO_99]

buon giorno a tutti.
quindi gli americani potrebbero anche far ritracciare il future in maniera consistente

..l'articolo lascierebbe intendere quello... la realta' la vedremo poi..

 

[maxgas]

..l'articolo lascierebbe intendere quello... la realta' la vedremo poi..

sei gia' in posizione per fare qualche tradata?

 

[NEO_99]

sei gia' in posizione per fare qualche tradata?

sono gia short in modo pesante..ma con pmc nn troppo buono..vediamo come va la giornata

 

[NEO_99]

si è allargato lo spread tra maggio ( in scadenza ) e giugno

 

[maxgas]

finalmente una bella candela come piace a me.
peccato per il cambio,ma finche' l'oil sale l'euro lo segue a ruota

 

[NEO_99]

U.S. interest in renewable energy sources like natural gas has increased as oil prices continue their steep climb. Natural gas futures on the Nymex on Thursday rose 2.48% to $4.42 per million British thermal units (btu) after the U.S. Energy Department reported a smaller than expected storage increase.
A recent Money Morning installment addressed how rising natural gas demand has turned investors on to shale gas, the unconventional gas found in tight shale rock formations. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that the United States has 862 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas resources. Many U.S. companies have excelled at developing drilling technology to retrieve hard-to-reach shale gas, and have become attractive opportunities for individual investors.
One reader wanted to know more about a U.S. shale gas supply that recently made headlines in the natural gas industry, the Haynesville Shale play. In March, the Haynesville formation took the lead as the most productive U.S. natural gas field, topping the Barnett Shale in Texas. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Haynesville produces about 5.5 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas a day, while Barnett produces about 5.25 bcf.
The Haynesville Shale is in northwestern Louisiana, western Texas and southern Arkansas. It has more than 1,000 wells already producing record levels of natural gas, and more than 900 more permitted and awaiting drilling or currently being drilled. Industry leaders have said there will be about 10,000 wells drilled to fully develop the area.
Haynesville has had a booming effect on Louisiana's economy. "The amount of money pumped into the economy from this thing is pretty extraordinary," said Dr. Loren Scott, professor emeritus at Louisiana State University.
According to a report released by Scott last month, the Haynesville in 2010 contributed to $16.3 billion in business sales and household earnings, 57,637 jobs, $338.8 million in local taxes, and $573.5 million in state taxes.
The Haynesville Shale region has higher drilling costs because its natural gas fields are dry. They are deeper than most and don't offer simultaneous oil production. To get to the gas, companies need to use horizontal drilling. A well is drilled to the shale layer and then turned to enter horizontally into the formation. Then drillers use hydraulic fracturing to set off small explosions and fracture the surrounding rock before pumping a mixture of water, sand and chemicals into the well to release the gas.
The high cost of drilling in Haynesville led Louisiana to create a horizontal drilling tax relief program. It exempts companies from paying taxes on extracted gas for the first two years of production or until the value of recovered gas equals the cost of the well drilling, whichever comes first. It's designed to attract oil and gas operators to the more expensive Haynesville Shale formation.
Some analysts argue Louisiana could reap even richer receipts from drilling if it repealed the severance tax incentive, but Scott thinks the tax exemption keeps companies interested in Haynesville. If the government were to kill it, drillers would be inclined to head to other shale gas reserves.
"[O]ur study shows that for every one dollar given up through the incentive program, the state gained $2.94," Scott wrote. "However, if you take away the incentive, the state actually loses money in even the most conservative scenarios. By eliminating the incentive program, it's likely that the pace of exploration and drilling would fall off significantly and we would expect existing companies to either move to more profitable areas or wait for the price to rise. In either case, it's not good for state or local governments, employers or employees."
Despite its expensive drilling costs, Haynesville's estimated total reserves are key to the U.S. natural gas industry. Companies that keep land interests in Haynesville will be able to reap profits as natural gas becomes more vital to U.S. energy usage.

 

[NEO_99]

HOUSTON—Natural-gas futures slid in early trading, as the market's two-week rally lost steam on forecasts for more moderate weather signaled a likely decrease in demand.
Natural gas for May delivery recently traded 6.7 cents, or 1.5%, lower at $4.345 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The benchmark contract had risen nearly 10% over the last two weeks, reaching an 11-week high of $4.412/MMBtu on Thursday.
The run came amid continued cold weather in the North and unseasonably high temperatures in the South, spurring demand for heating fuel and gas-fired electricity generation to run air conditioners.
The pullback from recent highs "looks like a light-volume retreat as temperatures are moderating from the heat that boosted cooling demand from the southern U.S. last week," Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans wrote in a client note.
Temperatures are expected to rise along the East Coast and around the Great Lakes and cool in the South, according to private forecaster Commodity Weather Group.
Recent forecasts are "rather uninspiring" and likely portend a "stout" injection between 80 billion cubic feet and 90 billion cubic feet of gas into U.S. stockpiles next week, Canaccord Genuity analysts said in a research note.
From April to October, U.S. inventories typically grow as demand for the heating fuel wanes and producers build up stocks in preparation for the next winter.
But storage builds have fallen below market expectations the last two weeks, signaling a better supply-and-demand balance than traders have expected, prompting some who had bet prices would fall to buy back those positions and push prices higher.
"We would caution against chasing this market higher since the production variable remains bearish and could prove capable of reversing this short-term uptrend with a turn back" possibly to this month's low of $4.06/MMBtu, Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, in a client note.