ETC Natural Gas (8 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione NEO_99
- Data di Inizio
gipango
Forumer storico
mister gain
così non va' babbo natale
Natural Gas Market Report
By Dominick Chirihella - Fri 28 Oct 2011 09:36:20 CT
Related Keywords: Energy
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/energy/2011/10/pre-open-natural-gas_916.html# http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/energy/2011/10/pre-open-natural-gas_916.html# http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/energy/2011/10/pre-open-natural-gas_916.html# http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/energy/2011/10/pre-open-natural-gas_916.html# http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php...w.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/index.html&tt=0
NG quietly surging higher on cold weather forecast
The onset of a bout of colder than normal weather along the northeast this coming weekend was enough to send the shorts home for the weekend as the new spot Dec futures contract went on a bit of a surge moving up over 4% on the day in spite of all of the bearish headwinds surrounding this commodity. The latest rig count for rigs deployed to Nat Gas increased again by 7 rigs to 934...certainly not very bullish! Technically the market is breaking out and is now seemingly on a direct path to test the next resistance level of the Dec contract of $4/mmbtu. The market is moving mostly based on short covering and technical support. The fundamentals are still very bearish even with the modestly colder than normal weather and a pre-season snow.
As I have been discussing for several weeks in this newsletter even though I am overall bearish Nat Gas the market has been sending us a message for several weeks and that message is "I do not want to go lower". The market has not gone lower and is continuing to trade higher over the last three or so weeks. It is not a raging bull market but one that is just slowly grinding away at any all remaining shorts left in the market along with some hedge buying coming into the market and supporting the price movement of late.
If this round of cold weather impacts inventory injections over the next several weeks it could be another signal that the market is setting itself up to move into the next higher level trading range of $4 to $4.50/mmbtu as the end of the shoulder seasons is quickly approaching and real winter weather is just around the corner. Several weeks ago I recommended that buy side hedgers should start to add to their winter hedge portfolios. I continue to recommend this action as the likelihood of Nat Gas moving strongly lower in the near term is decreasing.
In the latest EIA monthly Nat Gas Gross Production report the lower 48 States production increased slightly in August, 0.1 percent or 0.08 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico rose for the first time since December 2010 as production resumed from wells that were previously shut-in due to maintenance and repairs. Gas plant maintenance was responsible for the significant decrease in Wyoming, down 8.8 percent or 0.58 Bcf/d. Nearly offsetting the drop in Wyoming, Other States and Louisiana showed gains which totaled 0.50 Bcf/d which is partly explained by new wells being brought online in the Marcellus and Haynesville shale plays. The following chart shows the total US and lower forty eight Nat Gas production.
Rina has been downgraded to a tropical storm and is projected to be downgraded further to a depression over the next few days. It is still currently hovering around the Yucatan Peninsula and is starting to breakdown. It remains away for the major oil producing regions of the Gulf of Mexico. The latest projections from the National Hurricane Center are suggesting that the storm will steer away from the Gulf producing regions of the US and Mexico and will not become a threat to oil and Nat Gas producing operations and as such it is just a watcher and not something that warrants any price defensive action. The second wave in the south central Caribbean is also starting to dissipate and now has a 0% chance of strengthening over the next forty eight hours. For now we remain in a watching pattern rather than action pattern.
What Europe took away Europe gave back in a big way on Thursday as risk asset markets around the world surged higher in a good old fashioned relief rally. Although the EU deal structured this week to solve the European sovereign debt issues is not perfect it was a major step forward in the view of market participants toward a long lasting and durable solution. As I said yesterday there is going to be bumps along the road but if the details of the plan flow in the direction of the macro announcements from Tuesday the probability will be increasing that the debt issues in Europe can be solved once and for all.
The markets will still cling onto any and all of the 30 second news snippets coming out of the EU...especially any negative ones that suggest that the deal is changing. The next event which will bring the EU debt problems back into the spot light will be next week's (Nov 3rd) G20 leadership meeting in France. I would expect that the global leaders are going to stay positive and ride the short term wave created by the EU solution. I do not expect any major negatives or conflicts at this meeting. I suspect it will be an overall non-event with lots of friendly photo-ops.
The markets are now quickly moving their focus back the main event...the growth or lack of growth of the global economies. Yesterday's third quarter US GDP number came in better than most of the forecasts at 2.5% adding to the sigh of relief that was already building in the markets after the EU deal. This is a noticeable improvement over last quarter's number that was suggesting the probability of moving back into a double dip recession was increasing. The 2.5% for Q3 is a bit more encouraging and suggestive that the US economic contraction may be over for now and the economy maybe back into a growth pattern...albeit a slow one. The markets are now going to react to most all of the macroeconomic data that hits the airwaves much as it did already overnight when Japanese factory production declined by 4% in September and almost twice as much as what the economists were projecting. Equities, oil and other commodity markets immediately moved lower giving back some of yesterday's gains. Manufacturing is a key sector for oil and other traditional commodities and if this sector does not pick up it will be difficult for oil prices to remain in what is looking like a new uptrend leg.
Although I am still bearish I am not expecting Nat Gas prices to fall precipitously over the short term (next few days). Today was expiration day for the Nov contract. The fact that the Dec futures contract moved well above support/resistance suggests the market may try to move even higher in the short term. As such I am keeping my guidance at neutral and moving my bias to neutral also (even though I am still bearish) to see how price activity plays out over the next several trading session. I must say in looking at the fundamentals it is hard to be anything other than bearish. As such I caution all trading this market from the long side to employ tight trailing stops going forward.
By Dominick Chirihella - Fri 28 Oct 2011 09:36:20 CT
Related Keywords: Energy
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/energy/2011/10/pre-open-natural-gas_916.html# http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/energy/2011/10/pre-open-natural-gas_916.html# http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/energy/2011/10/pre-open-natural-gas_916.html# http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/energy/2011/10/pre-open-natural-gas_916.html# http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php...w.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/index.html&tt=0
NG quietly surging higher on cold weather forecast
The onset of a bout of colder than normal weather along the northeast this coming weekend was enough to send the shorts home for the weekend as the new spot Dec futures contract went on a bit of a surge moving up over 4% on the day in spite of all of the bearish headwinds surrounding this commodity. The latest rig count for rigs deployed to Nat Gas increased again by 7 rigs to 934...certainly not very bullish! Technically the market is breaking out and is now seemingly on a direct path to test the next resistance level of the Dec contract of $4/mmbtu. The market is moving mostly based on short covering and technical support. The fundamentals are still very bearish even with the modestly colder than normal weather and a pre-season snow.
As I have been discussing for several weeks in this newsletter even though I am overall bearish Nat Gas the market has been sending us a message for several weeks and that message is "I do not want to go lower". The market has not gone lower and is continuing to trade higher over the last three or so weeks. It is not a raging bull market but one that is just slowly grinding away at any all remaining shorts left in the market along with some hedge buying coming into the market and supporting the price movement of late.
If this round of cold weather impacts inventory injections over the next several weeks it could be another signal that the market is setting itself up to move into the next higher level trading range of $4 to $4.50/mmbtu as the end of the shoulder seasons is quickly approaching and real winter weather is just around the corner. Several weeks ago I recommended that buy side hedgers should start to add to their winter hedge portfolios. I continue to recommend this action as the likelihood of Nat Gas moving strongly lower in the near term is decreasing.
In the latest EIA monthly Nat Gas Gross Production report the lower 48 States production increased slightly in August, 0.1 percent or 0.08 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico rose for the first time since December 2010 as production resumed from wells that were previously shut-in due to maintenance and repairs. Gas plant maintenance was responsible for the significant decrease in Wyoming, down 8.8 percent or 0.58 Bcf/d. Nearly offsetting the drop in Wyoming, Other States and Louisiana showed gains which totaled 0.50 Bcf/d which is partly explained by new wells being brought online in the Marcellus and Haynesville shale plays. The following chart shows the total US and lower forty eight Nat Gas production.
Rina has been downgraded to a tropical storm and is projected to be downgraded further to a depression over the next few days. It is still currently hovering around the Yucatan Peninsula and is starting to breakdown. It remains away for the major oil producing regions of the Gulf of Mexico. The latest projections from the National Hurricane Center are suggesting that the storm will steer away from the Gulf producing regions of the US and Mexico and will not become a threat to oil and Nat Gas producing operations and as such it is just a watcher and not something that warrants any price defensive action. The second wave in the south central Caribbean is also starting to dissipate and now has a 0% chance of strengthening over the next forty eight hours. For now we remain in a watching pattern rather than action pattern.
What Europe took away Europe gave back in a big way on Thursday as risk asset markets around the world surged higher in a good old fashioned relief rally. Although the EU deal structured this week to solve the European sovereign debt issues is not perfect it was a major step forward in the view of market participants toward a long lasting and durable solution. As I said yesterday there is going to be bumps along the road but if the details of the plan flow in the direction of the macro announcements from Tuesday the probability will be increasing that the debt issues in Europe can be solved once and for all.
The markets will still cling onto any and all of the 30 second news snippets coming out of the EU...especially any negative ones that suggest that the deal is changing. The next event which will bring the EU debt problems back into the spot light will be next week's (Nov 3rd) G20 leadership meeting in France. I would expect that the global leaders are going to stay positive and ride the short term wave created by the EU solution. I do not expect any major negatives or conflicts at this meeting. I suspect it will be an overall non-event with lots of friendly photo-ops.
The markets are now quickly moving their focus back the main event...the growth or lack of growth of the global economies. Yesterday's third quarter US GDP number came in better than most of the forecasts at 2.5% adding to the sigh of relief that was already building in the markets after the EU deal. This is a noticeable improvement over last quarter's number that was suggesting the probability of moving back into a double dip recession was increasing. The 2.5% for Q3 is a bit more encouraging and suggestive that the US economic contraction may be over for now and the economy maybe back into a growth pattern...albeit a slow one. The markets are now going to react to most all of the macroeconomic data that hits the airwaves much as it did already overnight when Japanese factory production declined by 4% in September and almost twice as much as what the economists were projecting. Equities, oil and other commodity markets immediately moved lower giving back some of yesterday's gains. Manufacturing is a key sector for oil and other traditional commodities and if this sector does not pick up it will be difficult for oil prices to remain in what is looking like a new uptrend leg.
Although I am still bearish I am not expecting Nat Gas prices to fall precipitously over the short term (next few days). Today was expiration day for the Nov contract. The fact that the Dec futures contract moved well above support/resistance suggests the market may try to move even higher in the short term. As such I am keeping my guidance at neutral and moving my bias to neutral also (even though I am still bearish) to see how price activity plays out over the next several trading session. I must say in looking at the fundamentals it is hard to be anything other than bearish. As such I caution all trading this market from the long side to employ tight trailing stops going forward.
mister gain
così non va' babbo natale
The fundamentals are still very bearish even with the modestly colder than normal weather and a pre-season snow......
mister gain
così non va' babbo natale
lthough I am still bearish I am not expecting Nat Gas prices to fall precipitously over the short term (next few days). Today was expiration day for the Nov contract. The fact that the Dec futures contract moved well above support/resistance suggests the market may try to move even higher in the short term. As such I am keeping my guidance at neutral and moving my bias to neutral also (even though I am still bearish) to see how price activity plays out over the next several trading session. I must say in looking at the fundamentals it is hard to be anything other than bearish. As such I caution all trading this market from the long side to employ tight trailing stops going forward.
mister gain
così non va' babbo natale
ho copiato e incollato 2 passaggi a mio giudizio interessanti
maxgas
SonLoss
Washington e' dalla parte opposta alle terre interessate dal nostro GAS,quindi ininfluente.
Ultima modifica:
mister gain
così non va' babbo natale
???
mi sa che sbagli qualcosa
est e nord est degli usa è molto popolato e quindi può sostenere i consumi.
washington mica sta ad ovest
maxgas
SonLoss
vado a memoria ( potrei anche sbagliare e se cosi' fosse me ne scuso ).
mi ricordo qualche post dell'anno scorso dove vi erano elencate le terre servite dal nostro amato GAS e non mi sembra che che quelle fossero interessate.
Magari se qualcuno + ferrato si connette puo' chiarirmi le idee.
Ciao