ETC Natural Gas (71 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione NEO_99
- Data di Inizio
gipango
Forumer storico
NEO_99
Forumer storico
un articolo sul gas canadese..che segua di pari passo il cugino USA
There is no question natural gas prices played the role of ugly stepsister to oil's Cinderella in 2011, but there is some sense out there that the commodity could be poised for a turnaround.
It's certainly a tough one to buy into - given that Alberta prices did hit a 10year low of $2.82 per gigajoule on Dec. 19.
But Peter Tertzakian looks at the world a bit differently and that was certainly evident in a presentation made to energy execs in December - before natural gas prices hit the decade low.
According to Tertzakian, the chief energy economist for ARC Financial, there are plenty of reasons to believe the worst is over for natural gas - the orphan commodity.
Why?
A good part of it will be driven by growing demand in emerging Asia.
To put things in perspective, natural gas consumption is growing at three per cent per year - twice the rate of oil consumption.
Cast a bit differently, growth of natural gas use is rising between seven and eight per cent per year - four billion cubic feet, or the equivalent of four Kitimat liquefied natural gas terminals.
Pushing the numbers even higher will be increased demand from Japan and other countries as the shift away from nuclear power continues in 2012. Japan's nuclear power is running at 20 per cent capacity and everyone knows it is looking for an alternative to nuclear power. Thus, the country is going to get its hands on every cubic foot of LNG that's available, with the result they will probably be in the position of having to outbid for existing contracts to secure supply in 2012.
But there are other factors that will be having an effect on price - one of which being the adage that nothing cures low gas prices, like low gas prices because companies stop drilling.
Another factor is the rates of decline being seen in some of the plays. As Tertzakian pointed out, the declines are sitting at 32 per cent on a base of production that is reaching 80 billion cubic feet per day. What this translates into is an investment of between $80 billion and $90 billion per year that is required to maintain current production levels.
That's a fast treadmill to stay on. The trouble is that at current prices, the cash flow being generated by natural gas producers is not sufficient to fund the required capital expenditures. It also has to be noted that much of the natural gas activity has been funded because of the hedges companies like Encana had put in place at higher prices.
Everyone knows those hedges are coming off - the futures curve isn't as optimistic and thus the financing gap for exploration and development activities could be even wider than thought.
And that's at the current cost structure.
But there's another factor that could play a role in the direction of natural gas drilling and exploration activity in 2012 - earning and maintaining the social licence to operate.
As the Eurasia Group pointed out in its 2012 forecast, natural gas prices could very well be affected by more regulations regarding the process of hydraulic fracturing that will ultimately increase costs, not just in the U.S. but anywhere around the globe where the shale gas plays exist.
Still, no one is expecting a big bounce in prices for 2012. On the contrary, analysts have been busy revising numbers downward from 2011 levels. Commodities analyst Martin King at FirstEnergy Capital has the Alberta natural gas price averaging $3.19/mcf and Henry Hub at $3.75/mcf US for 2012. Scotiabank is less optimistic, with a Henry Hub price of $3.50/mcf, but believes prices could rise to $4/mcf by year-end and Citibank is looking at $3.30 per million British thermal units for the year.
The one thing that could affect prices significantly to the upside, of course, is the weather. A very cold winter, a nasty hurricane season or a combination of both would bolster prices, even as storage levels on both sides of the border are at record levels.
Another development that could help prices would be the announcement and approval of more LNG export terminals in North America. This would signal a commitment to becoming part of global LNG trade and enable companies to capture some of the $12 differential in natural gas prices that currently exists between this continent and Asian markets.
A play written in 1948 by the Irish writer, Samuel Beckett entitled Waiting for Godot, in which two men on stage are waiting for someone named Godot who never shows up seems an apt parallel when looking to describe the sentiment surrounding a recovery in natural gas prices.
Waiting for natural gas prices to recover over the past few years has been a bit like Waiting for Godot; nothing has happened. But if Tertzakian is right, we might be witnessing the beginning of the end of the wait. It is undoubtedly the fuel of the future but the question is how many years out is that future. According to current estimates - it's at least 12 months away. Hopefully it's not much more than that.
There is no question natural gas prices played the role of ugly stepsister to oil's Cinderella in 2011, but there is some sense out there that the commodity could be poised for a turnaround.
It's certainly a tough one to buy into - given that Alberta prices did hit a 10year low of $2.82 per gigajoule on Dec. 19.
But Peter Tertzakian looks at the world a bit differently and that was certainly evident in a presentation made to energy execs in December - before natural gas prices hit the decade low.
According to Tertzakian, the chief energy economist for ARC Financial, there are plenty of reasons to believe the worst is over for natural gas - the orphan commodity.
Why?
A good part of it will be driven by growing demand in emerging Asia.
To put things in perspective, natural gas consumption is growing at three per cent per year - twice the rate of oil consumption.
Cast a bit differently, growth of natural gas use is rising between seven and eight per cent per year - four billion cubic feet, or the equivalent of four Kitimat liquefied natural gas terminals.
Pushing the numbers even higher will be increased demand from Japan and other countries as the shift away from nuclear power continues in 2012. Japan's nuclear power is running at 20 per cent capacity and everyone knows it is looking for an alternative to nuclear power. Thus, the country is going to get its hands on every cubic foot of LNG that's available, with the result they will probably be in the position of having to outbid for existing contracts to secure supply in 2012.
But there are other factors that will be having an effect on price - one of which being the adage that nothing cures low gas prices, like low gas prices because companies stop drilling.
Another factor is the rates of decline being seen in some of the plays. As Tertzakian pointed out, the declines are sitting at 32 per cent on a base of production that is reaching 80 billion cubic feet per day. What this translates into is an investment of between $80 billion and $90 billion per year that is required to maintain current production levels.
That's a fast treadmill to stay on. The trouble is that at current prices, the cash flow being generated by natural gas producers is not sufficient to fund the required capital expenditures. It also has to be noted that much of the natural gas activity has been funded because of the hedges companies like Encana had put in place at higher prices.
Everyone knows those hedges are coming off - the futures curve isn't as optimistic and thus the financing gap for exploration and development activities could be even wider than thought.
And that's at the current cost structure.
But there's another factor that could play a role in the direction of natural gas drilling and exploration activity in 2012 - earning and maintaining the social licence to operate.
As the Eurasia Group pointed out in its 2012 forecast, natural gas prices could very well be affected by more regulations regarding the process of hydraulic fracturing that will ultimately increase costs, not just in the U.S. but anywhere around the globe where the shale gas plays exist.
Still, no one is expecting a big bounce in prices for 2012. On the contrary, analysts have been busy revising numbers downward from 2011 levels. Commodities analyst Martin King at FirstEnergy Capital has the Alberta natural gas price averaging $3.19/mcf and Henry Hub at $3.75/mcf US for 2012. Scotiabank is less optimistic, with a Henry Hub price of $3.50/mcf, but believes prices could rise to $4/mcf by year-end and Citibank is looking at $3.30 per million British thermal units for the year.
The one thing that could affect prices significantly to the upside, of course, is the weather. A very cold winter, a nasty hurricane season or a combination of both would bolster prices, even as storage levels on both sides of the border are at record levels.
Another development that could help prices would be the announcement and approval of more LNG export terminals in North America. This would signal a commitment to becoming part of global LNG trade and enable companies to capture some of the $12 differential in natural gas prices that currently exists between this continent and Asian markets.
A play written in 1948 by the Irish writer, Samuel Beckett entitled Waiting for Godot, in which two men on stage are waiting for someone named Godot who never shows up seems an apt parallel when looking to describe the sentiment surrounding a recovery in natural gas prices.
Waiting for natural gas prices to recover over the past few years has been a bit like Waiting for Godot; nothing has happened. But if Tertzakian is right, we might be witnessing the beginning of the end of the wait. It is undoubtedly the fuel of the future but the question is how many years out is that future. According to current estimates - it's at least 12 months away. Hopefully it's not much more than that.
NEO_99
Forumer storico
il contango in questa fase è il meno dei mali..il problema è proprio che scende inesorabilmente
riviste le previsioni meteo..clima di nuovo mite
NEO_99
Forumer storico
furia3
Guest
saluto a tutti .
buono ucg...meno male che nn ho venduto i diritti......
sapete perchè scende così bene? ho tolto lo stop al cip e sono andato over
secondo me vanno a due ci portano via tutti i soldi e poi lo tolgono dal mercato......
una volta che vado over ti pareva che facesse il giochino di risalire....noooooooo!!
buono ucg...meno male che nn ho venduto i diritti......
sapete perchè scende così bene? ho tolto lo stop al cip e sono andato over
secondo me vanno a due ci portano via tutti i soldi e poi lo tolgono dal mercato......
una volta che vado over ti pareva che facesse il giochino di risalire....noooooooo!!
Ultima modifica di un moderatore:
foo fighter
Forumer storico
hai lossato qui ..ma ti sei rifatto con intesa e levmib...
sei abile
ehhh!
abilissimo!!Comunque amerikkioni hanno dato segnale short, almeno di breve
foo fighter
Forumer storico
mo scaricano la monnezza e ripartono...
