observations:
total demand was up from the week prior as increased cooling demand helped boost generation use.
california is showing increased power generation gas burn as hydro levels in the state remain much lower than last years levels and San Onofre nuclear is to remain shut.
total nuclear outages have been declining to ramp up for summer loads, but total nuke outages are above last year and average for this time of year. this is helping support gas fired generation by around .2bcf/d over last yr.
supply increased from the week earlier as some maintenance related restrictions were lifted.
total supply has been slowly declining all year, narrowing the gap vs last yr. total supply last week was roughly only .5bcf/day above last years levels.
gas exports to mexico increased by nearly .1bcf/d last week to support increasing cooling loads in the region.
storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
last week: 56 (49cdd 7hdd)
previous week: 52 (32cdd 20hdd)
same week last yr: 67 (53cdd 14hdd)
avg: 58 (45cdd 13dd)
next wk fcst: 71 (70cdd 1hdd)
* source: NOAA
storage:
same week last yr: +90
5 yr avg: +87
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls
my current estimate is +62 bcf