NEW YORK***8212;Natural-gas futures pushed higher, extending the rally in front-month futures to six straight sessions as investors bet on rising demand for gas-fired heating as colder weather approaches.
Natural gas for November delivery rose 5.1 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $3.531 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since Dec. 2.
Gas prices rose amid forecasts that continue to call for the return of cool weather across much of the U.S. heading into the first week of October.
MDA EarthSat expects colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest, East Coast and South over the next six to 10 days, the forecaster said Tuesday, which could prompt an early start to the heating season. In its winter outlook released Tuesday, MDA EarthSat said it expects relatively normal winter temperatures across most of the country.
The rally "remains related to cold temperature forecasts," said Jim Ritterbusch, head of trading adviser Ritterbusch & Associates.
Since November futures took over as the front-month contract last week, gas prices have surged by 26 cents, or 8%, and some chart watchers believe the rally could continue.
Brian LaRose, senior technical analyst at United-ICAP, said that natural gas is aimed toward $3.66/MMBtu, which would complete a long-term technical pattern known as a "head and shoulders" that extends back into 2011. But the speed of the rally could indicate a dip is ahead before further gains.
"The message is clear: Anyone who is long here should be proceeding with some extreme caution," Mr. LaRose said.
Still, with cooler weather ahead, few are projecting any return to the decade lows below $2/MMBtu hit in April. An increase in demand from utilities, coupled with a much hotter-than-normal summer, has shrunk a U.S. supply glut that stood roughly 60% higher than the five-year average in March.
As of last week, inventories were just 8.6% above the five-year average for the week, and cool weather could mean further shrinking of the surplus.
Tom Pawlicki, an energy analyst at EOXLive, estimates that U.S. inventories will increase by 67 billion cubic feet in data due Thursday from the Energy Information Administration, well below the five-year average increase.