ETC Natural Gas (18 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione NEO_99
- Data di Inizio
NEO_99
Forumer storico
NEW YORK, May 24 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures have
posted an impressive rally since briefly trading below $2 per
million BTUs earlier this month, but the upside is increasingly
limited by coal prices and the prospect of more gas from now
unpopular dry shales.
The more than 40 percent rally in natural gas prices has
come even as major producers like Chesapeake Energy have
seemingly not cut output by as much as the market had hoped.
A string of better-than-expected weekly storage reports has,
at least temporarily, allayed fears that producers would be
forced to dump lots of unwanted gas on the spot market due to
storage limitations.
Increased switching away from coal by power utilities has
further helped, propping up natural gas demand.
Barclays Capital estimates that 7 billion cubic feet per
day of natural gas has displaced coal from the U.S. power
sector.
Some of this switching is due to utilities moving away from
coal and into gas due to tougher environmental legislation, but
the bulk of this incremental gas burn is due to economics.
Gas is simply cheaper right now. That in turn has forced
coal producers to cut output by 8 percent, according to BarCap.
So far, so good for gas. But here's where the problems for
gas bulls mount.
In the absence of a price for carbon emissions, coal
competes directly with natural gas.
So if U.S. natural gas prices rise to a level at which coal
is economically competitive, utilities will probably cut gas
consumption and switch back to coal.
The incentives to switch back to coal are considerable.
May U.S. utilities are sitting on growing coal inventories
and are forced to keep buying the fuel under long-term take or
pay contracts.
GenOn, for instance, has declared force majeure on
coal receipts due to a lack of storage space.
With coal prices ticking lower due to the slump in utility
demand, the upside to the gas rally gets closer.
Indeed logistical constraints, such as take-or-pay contracts
and limited coal storage space, may well force utilities to
resume coal burning even if the prices of gas and coal do not
converge.
DRY SHALE WALL
The other, longer-term barrier to a natural gas price rally
is the huge resources locked up in so-called dry shales.
With the plunge in natural gas prices, producers have been
curtailing output and drilling from basins like the Haynesville
Shale, which yield little in the way of more valuable liquids.
But this move away from dry gas output has not eliminated
this resource. If anything, the now unloved dry shales sit as a
cap on the upside to gas prices.
A sustained rally in natural gas futures would give
producers sitting on Haynesville acreage, for instance, a strong
incentive to put it quickly into production.
Indeed, it would likely spark a brief flurry of leasing as
gas producers tried to grab any opportunity to boost output as
prices rose.
The supply response is likely to be swift. After all, the
shale gas industry has honed its techniques in recent years,
cutting drilling and completion times and boosting well
productivity.
And many of these dry shales are among the best known
structures, so compared with conventional natural gas, the
exploration risk is minimal.
Over the longer term gas should benefit from environmental
rules that are squeezing coal out of the U.S. power market by
forcing the closure of older coal-fired plants.
Gas prices might also get some benefit from supply
discipline. Already big producers are coming under pressure from
investors to rein in empire building and focus more on the
bottom line.
But for the most part these two supports are weak.
Regulations can be overturned or watered down. Producer
discipline is hard to maintain if attractive short-term profits
loom.
So ultimately gas faces a few years at least of relatively
cheap prices.
It's a supply problem, after all. Gas has become much easier
to produce in large quantities. Relief for producers can only
come through new and bigger markets.
But breaking into many markets, like transportation fuels or
power generation, requires deeply undercutting the price of
incumbent fuels.
Give up the low cost of gas and new markets vanish.
posted an impressive rally since briefly trading below $2 per
million BTUs earlier this month, but the upside is increasingly
limited by coal prices and the prospect of more gas from now
unpopular dry shales.
The more than 40 percent rally in natural gas prices has
come even as major producers like Chesapeake Energy have
seemingly not cut output by as much as the market had hoped.
A string of better-than-expected weekly storage reports has,
at least temporarily, allayed fears that producers would be
forced to dump lots of unwanted gas on the spot market due to
storage limitations.
Increased switching away from coal by power utilities has
further helped, propping up natural gas demand.
Barclays Capital estimates that 7 billion cubic feet per
day of natural gas has displaced coal from the U.S. power
sector.
Some of this switching is due to utilities moving away from
coal and into gas due to tougher environmental legislation, but
the bulk of this incremental gas burn is due to economics.
Gas is simply cheaper right now. That in turn has forced
coal producers to cut output by 8 percent, according to BarCap.
So far, so good for gas. But here's where the problems for
gas bulls mount.
In the absence of a price for carbon emissions, coal
competes directly with natural gas.
So if U.S. natural gas prices rise to a level at which coal
is economically competitive, utilities will probably cut gas
consumption and switch back to coal.
The incentives to switch back to coal are considerable.
May U.S. utilities are sitting on growing coal inventories
and are forced to keep buying the fuel under long-term take or
pay contracts.
GenOn, for instance, has declared force majeure on
coal receipts due to a lack of storage space.
With coal prices ticking lower due to the slump in utility
demand, the upside to the gas rally gets closer.
Indeed logistical constraints, such as take-or-pay contracts
and limited coal storage space, may well force utilities to
resume coal burning even if the prices of gas and coal do not
converge.
DRY SHALE WALL
The other, longer-term barrier to a natural gas price rally
is the huge resources locked up in so-called dry shales.
With the plunge in natural gas prices, producers have been
curtailing output and drilling from basins like the Haynesville
Shale, which yield little in the way of more valuable liquids.
But this move away from dry gas output has not eliminated
this resource. If anything, the now unloved dry shales sit as a
cap on the upside to gas prices.
A sustained rally in natural gas futures would give
producers sitting on Haynesville acreage, for instance, a strong
incentive to put it quickly into production.
Indeed, it would likely spark a brief flurry of leasing as
gas producers tried to grab any opportunity to boost output as
prices rose.
The supply response is likely to be swift. After all, the
shale gas industry has honed its techniques in recent years,
cutting drilling and completion times and boosting well
productivity.
And many of these dry shales are among the best known
structures, so compared with conventional natural gas, the
exploration risk is minimal.
Over the longer term gas should benefit from environmental
rules that are squeezing coal out of the U.S. power market by
forcing the closure of older coal-fired plants.
Gas prices might also get some benefit from supply
discipline. Already big producers are coming under pressure from
investors to rein in empire building and focus more on the
bottom line.
But for the most part these two supports are weak.
Regulations can be overturned or watered down. Producer
discipline is hard to maintain if attractive short-term profits
loom.
So ultimately gas faces a few years at least of relatively
cheap prices.
It's a supply problem, after all. Gas has become much easier
to produce in large quantities. Relief for producers can only
come through new and bigger markets.
But breaking into many markets, like transportation fuels or
power generation, requires deeply undercutting the price of
incumbent fuels.
Give up the low cost of gas and new markets vanish.
teo78
Nuovo forumer
buonasera a tutti,Neo,Max ecc... articolo molto interessante su forexpros... sembra che i produttori di gas fino ad ora abbiano fatto un buco nell'acqua ,i pozzi perdono circa il 90% della loro produttività nel giro di un anno e fino ad ora hanno estratto molto spostando in continuazione le trivelle appena il pozzo non era più redditizio,questo grazie ai numerosi incentivi dati dallo stato ed ai prestiti ad interessi praticamente nulli ma continuare a spostare la produzione ha dei costi non indifferenti e da quanto scritto nell'articolo sembrerebbe che un pozzo per poter essere considerato redditizio debba permettere di estrarre gas intorno ai 6/8$ per Btu, insomma come per chesapake anche per le altre compagnie sembra di capire che Seputar non sia poi tutto questo grande affare...almeno a questi prezzi...
Neo, una domanda, continuo a leggere che salendo sopra i 2,75 /3$ ci sarebbe un probabile ritorno al carbone,ma il gas negli ultimi 10 anni non ha mai ragginto questi prezzi (anzi è sem pre stato molto più caro)eppure i consumi ci sono sempre stati, non è che cercano di spaventare i long?
Neo, una domanda, continuo a leggere che salendo sopra i 2,75 /3$ ci sarebbe un probabile ritorno al carbone,ma il gas negli ultimi 10 anni non ha mai ragginto questi prezzi (anzi è sem pre stato molto più caro)eppure i consumi ci sono sempre stati, non è che cercano di spaventare i long?
NEO_99
Forumer storico
Ciao Teo,
teoricamente dovrebbero spostarsi sempre piu' sul gas e abbandonare il carbone... ma siccome vige la legge del denaro.
cmq sia si spostano su quello che piu' conviene.. diciamo che sui 3$ lo switch gas/carbone diventa meno interessante..
ci vorrebbero leggi piu' incisive che mettano al bando il carbone per le centrali..ma credo che il tutto si svolgera' come sempre in tempi lunghi.
tagli ci sono stati..si è passati da un surplus anno su anno da 60% al 38 ...ma porca la zozza siamo al 38% di scorte in piu'..e pure sulla media a 5 anni siamo al 38% in piu..
vediamo se a Giugno con l'inizio della stagione uragani il prezzo della paura lo tenga su.
per ora sono flat..uscito male.. oggi per 1 tick nn mi è passato il buy... ma forse è meglio attendere ancora..
poi a giugno parte il roll ETC ..
