Era già uscita qualche gg fa questa news poi smentita, o sbaglio?
E' del 20, se già postata cancello.
Metto questo commento alla trimestrale.
Weak 3Q15; Remain cautious due to execution risks
and macro/political uncertainties
Petrobras reported results on Thursday night and held a conference call on
Friday. Results were weak, as reported EBITDA was down 32%qoq (in
USD terms), impacted by legal contingencies, tax expenses, write-offs and
allowances for impairment of receivables from the electricity sector.
Although unleveraged FCF was positive as the company was able to
monetize WC, we estimate FCF after interest was negative $500 million.
Net debt ended the quarter at $102 billion and net leverage remained high
at 3.9x; in BRL terms, net leverage reached 5.2x. Given the continued cash
burn and no expectations of a meaningful improvement in EBITDA, we
believe leverage is unlikely to decline in the near term absent significant
proceeds from asset sales, combined with an import parity pricing policy.
Management has signaled that asset sales should be the main driver for
deleveraging in the coming year; however, it did not provide many details
on the topic during the conference call. Importantly, the company noted it
may engage in new sale-leaseback transactions and raise secured debt in
order to avoid paying higher interest rates.
During the press call,
management also mentioned the possibility of doing liability management
to improve its maturity profile. We remain cautious on the name given
challenging fundamentals and significant FX exposure, as well as the
difficult macro and political situation in Brazil. While the ~400bp spread to
the sovereign seems high given the strong linkage between the two and the
importance of Petrobras to the government, we believe that there are too
many uncertainties at this point and that direct government support (as
capital injection or guarantees on existing and/or future issuances) appears
unlikely in the near-term given fiscal constraints and political instability.
We have a Neutral recommendation on the Issuer. We are UW the 2024s
and the long-end (as we believe the curve is too flat) and N most of the rest
of the curve. We only have select OWs on the 3% 2019s, FRN 2019s,
5.75% 2020s and 4.875% 2020s, as we believe that they look cheap on a
relative basis to the rest of the curve.
