Entro 90 giorni al più tardi la decisione di S&P se ridurre o meno il rating di Fiat. Scarsamente influente (e cmq con un minimo effetto negativo) l'accordo con Chrysler, secondo l'agenzia. Come commentato qui a suo tempo da più d'uno (ricordo di Capirex85), peseranno soprattutto i livelli di liquidità, ritenuti deboli da S&P.
Italy-Based Fiat SpA 'BB+' Rating Still On CreditWatch Negative After Finalization Of Alliance With Chrysler
-- Italian industrial group Fiat SpA and U.S.-based Chrysler Group LLC have finalized their announced alliance.
-- Fiat has 20% of the new Chrysler's share capital.
-- We are maintaining Fiat's 'BB+' long-term rating on CreditWatch negative.
-- The CreditWatch status reflects our view of Fiat's "weak" liquidity profile and the possible impact on Fiat's credit quality of its alliance with Chrysler.
MILAN (Standard & Poor's) June 12, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that its 'BB+' long-term corporate credit rating on Italian industrial group Fiat SpA remains on CreditWatch with negative implications, where it was placed on Jan. 22, 2009. At the same time, the 'B' short-term corporate credit rating was affirmed.
"The CreditWatch status reflects our view of Fiat's liquidity profile, which we classify as "weak," and the risks we see for Fiat's creditworthiness as a result of our opinion of the management team's high level of engagement in the new entity Chrysler Group LLC (Chrysler; not rated), with Fiat's CEO now the CEO of Chrysler," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Barbara Castellano.
The negative CreditWatch implications also reflect--albeit to a lesser extent--Standard & Poor's uncertainty about the future of the group's structure given Fiat's stated interest in new alliances or mergers to enlarge its auto business. We expect to learn more on the first two points over the coming weeks. The last point remains an event risk that we cannot specifically factor into the ratings; if, for example, Fiat were to enlarge its auto activities, it might then spin them off from the group.
On June 10, 2009, Fiat announced the close of a strategic alliance with the new Chrysler entity created to acquire substantially all of the "old" Chrysler's (Chrysler LLC) assets and part of its liabilities; the "old" Chrysler remains in bankruptcy. The alliance gives Fiat 20% of the new Chrysler. The new entity's structure is designed to be leaner, and the debt burden has been reduced. However, we believe that Chrysler is facing a number of industrial issues that have affected performance in the last several years. In exchange for Fiat's 20% ownership, Chrysler will be entitled to use some of Fiat's intellectual properties and technologies, as well as receive ongoing management services to help it in its turnaround.
Furthermore according to the announcement, Fiat will also have the right to receive up to 15% in additional equity in three 5% tranches, each in exchange for meeting certain technical performance metrics. In addition, it will receive an option to acquire another 16% shareholding between Jan. 1, 2013, and June 30, 2016, under specific conditions.
According to these conditions, Fiat could achieve 35% ownership in Chrysler without paying out any cash itself. However, we find it difficult to quantify the engagement of Fiat's management in Chrysler over the next few years. The first decision communicated upon announcement of the agreement is that Sergio Marchionne, Fiat's CEO, will now also be Chrysler's CEO. In our opinion, this shows a very strong commitment on the part of Fiat to dedicate its best resources to Chrysler.
We consider Chrysler's turnaround to be a challenging target that could require a significant managerial effort from Fiat. Over the next weeks, we will seek more information on the new Chrysler structure and we will try to assess the main challenges that Chrysler is facing, as well as the impacts on Fiat's activities of management's dedication to Chrysler's recovery
Our resolution of the CreditWatch listing will focus on Fiat's capacity to generate cash and fulfill its financial obligations, Fiat's ability to strengthen its current "weak" liquidity profile and sustain that profile in
light of continuing weak light-vehicle sales, the evolution of the Fiat group's operating performance in the current difficult market environment, and our opinion of the prospective effect of the Chrysler alliance on Fiat's
business and financial profile," said Ms. Castellano. "Notwithstanding an initial 20% ownership stake, we believe Fiat's involvement in and control of the direction of Chrysler will be more significant."
We aim to solve the CreditWatch listing in the next 90 days at the latest.
) : oggi ho provato ad acquistarle ma, pur richiedendole a un professionista molto smart di una grossa banca, mi hanno detto che e' impossibile acquistarle da privati italiani. 
) e prendendo ABN perpetue (quelle segnalate da gonzalito, che ringrazio!) a 36, ora stanno a 43 circa. ne avevo gia' qualcuna a 17, ma chi poteva pensare che sarebbero triplicate in un mesetto?