Total... stanno arrivando le trimestrali Q1/2009 del comparto, e la situazione evidenzia gli attesi cali negli utili imputabili all'andamento del prezzo del petrolio, al calo della domanda di idrocarburi imputabile alla recessione ed alla conseguente riduzione delle attività estrattive in un tentativo di adeguare l'offerta alla domanda calante.
Le differenze sono invece fra chi può permettersi rallentamenti nei progetti di investimento per salvaguardare la profittevolezza mediante tagli al capex (Total è un esempio) e chi invece è pressato dall'esigenza di investire cmq per ripristinare il livello delle riserve e/o fare fronte a cali produttivi di giacimenti importanti (e Pemex è il primo nome che mi viene in mente), dovendo pertanto reperire sul mercato quei capitali non più assicurati dai corsi petroliferi.
Total Profit Declines 35% on Lower Crude Prices (Update1)
By Tara Patel
May 6 (Bloomberg) --
Total SA, Europe’s third-largest oil producer, said first-quarter earnings declined 35 percent as the global recession eroded energy demand, causing crude prices to drop and production to fall.
Profit excluding changes in inventories and the value of a stake in
Sanofi-Aventis SA fell to 2.1 billion euros ($2.79 billion) from 3.25 billion euros a year earlier, the Paris-based company said today in a statement. That beat the 2 billion-euro median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Net income dropped 36 percent to 2.3 billion euros.
Total reported “a good set of earnings proving more resilient than peers,”
Bertrand Hodee, analyst at Kepler Capital Markets in Paris, wrote in a report, adding that the outlook for production this year “looks attractive.”
The French company said it can “maintain” its dividend policy and aims to reduce costs. First-quarter net investment dropped to $3.2 billion from $3.7 billion the previous year.
Oil companies including
Royal Dutch Shell Plc and
BP Plc, Total’s main European competitors, have reported lower quarterly earnings as the recession curbed energy consumption. U.S. oil prices averaged $43.31 a barrel in the period, 56 percent lower than a year earlier, while U.S. gas futures were down 49 percent.
Total dropped as much as 2.2 percent and traded down 65 cents at 38.50 euros at 10:20 a.m. in Paris. The shares are almost unchanged since the start of the year.
Project Delays
Total Chief Executive Officer
Christophe de Margerie has warned investment this year may not reach the company’s $18 billion target amid project delays. The oil producer, which has pledged to cut costs by renegotiating contracts with suppliers, is counting on production growth from deep-water African fields, heavy-oil ventures in Canada and
liquefied natural gas projects.
Five projects are scheduled to start this year, including the Akpo oilfield off Nigeria, which came on stream in March, LNG plants in Yemen and Qatar, the Tahiti venture in the Gulf of Mexico and Angola’s Tombua-Landana field. The company’s share of these projects will add as much as 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in output.
Akpo production will be increased in the “coming months” during which time the other four projects will be started up, today’s statement said.
Production fell 4.3 percent in the first quarter to 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, mostly due to output restrictions by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Total said in today’s statement. De Margerie predicted in February that output would rise this year, after a 2 percent drop in 2008.
Saudi Refinery
“Total will study with Saudi Aramco the bids for the construction of the Jubail refinery in Saudi Arabia,” the French energy company said. “Cost reduction programs that have been initiated across the company combined with lower prices for services and materials will reduce the 2009 breakeven point,” Total said, referring to the crude oil price needed to make projects viable.
Shell, based in The Hague, posted a 62 percent decline in first-quarter net income last month, while London-based BP reported a 64 percent drop. Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest company by market value, said profit sank 58 percent.
Of the 39 analysts tracked by Bloomberg who cover Total, 30 recommend
buying the stock, seven advise holding the shares and two have “sell” ratings.
Total, which is Europe’s biggest oil refiner, said its plants ran at 81 percent of capacity in the first quarter, down from a year ago because of maintenance in the U.K. and France and voluntary reductions in Texas.
The crude run rates fell from 87 percent in the year-ago period and 90 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.