Imark
Forumer storico
E l'emissione di titoli destinati al mercato interno messicano ha occasionato una rating action da parte di Moody's che propongo perché fa nuovamente il punto sulla situazione dell'emittente, che appare critica in prospettiva proprio perché si rende necessario incrementare il capex per sostenere la produzione in una fase in cui i prezzi del petrolio riducono le disponibilità finanziarie ed al contempo il settore petrolifero messicano rimane chiuso all'investimento privato, che peraltro sarebbe utile a generare maggiori efficienza in termini di redditività del capitale investito.
In positivo restano le attese di supporto governativo da parte del Messico, essendo Pemex società controllata dallo stato.
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's rates certificados bursatiles program of PEMEX[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]New York, April 17, 2009 -- Moody's assigned a Baa1 foreign currency bond rating and Aaa.mx national scale rating on April 3, 2009 to the Mexican Pesos 70 billion certificados bursátiles program of Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX). The ratings were also assigned to the initial Pesos 6 billion and Pesos 4 billion issuances (Clave de Pizarra PEMEX 09/09-2) under the program. The outlook for the ratings is stable. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]PEMEX's foreign currency and national scale ratings reflect the company's position as Mexico's largest company and its monopoly status as the country's sole producer of crude oil, natural gas and refined products. PEMEX had a sizable 14.3 billion BOE of proved hydrocarbon reserves (as of January 1, 2009) and oil and gas production in the area of 4.3 million BOE/day in 2008, in line with the largest integrated and national oil companies. It is also a leading crude oil exporter, with over 50% of its total crude production exported to the United States. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Although PEMEX's debt obligations are not guaranteed by the government of Mexico, our ratings reflect implicit government support, given the company's strategic importance as a generator of tax revenues and foreign exchange, and as a national asset belonging to the people of Mexico. PEMEX's debt obligations and unfunded pension liabilities have declined over the past two years but are likely to increase in a lower price environment in 2009. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]However, PEMEX faces numerous operational and financial challenges. It has not fully replaced production for many years. Production from the giant Cantarell oil field, which contributed over 60% of crude oil production as recently as 2005, declined by almost 25% in 2008 from 2007 levels. Despite ample pre-tax cash flows, a high tax burden has stymied capital retention and investment in reserves and key infrastructure and has resulted in a heavy debt burden. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Nevertheless, PEMEX has significantly increased its capital spending in the last two years. Capital spending in 2008 totaled approximately $19.4 billion and could be at a similar level in 2009, but it will be a challenging year to meet funding requirements as well as potential debt increases, given the collapse in crude prices and a 2009 capital budget that was initially based on a Mexican crude basket price of $70/bbl. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Tax reform in 2007 and the passage of energy reform in 2008 indicate that PEMEX's need to retain capital and to reinvest to grow production has gained more widespread recognition across party lines. The energy reform bill provides greater autonomy for PEMEX in setting its budgets, higher retentions of windfall oil revenues for internal investment, and new forms of incentive contracts that would allow foreign companies to enter into projects to develop Mexico's hydrocarbon resources. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]However, the energy reform did not accommodate more far-reaching changes such as production sharing or other forms of equity ownership that would promote accelerated investment in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, which holds Mexico's best prospects for future reserve and production growth. In addition, most of PEMEX's other operations, such as refining, remain closed to foreign investment or ownership. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]While we see little chance for significant private investment in the Mexican oil sector anytime soon, the recent energy reform indicates reinvestment and production prospects for PEMEX could start to improve.[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]We will continue to monitor the implementation of energy and tax reform and their benefits for PEMEX and its investment program. Maintaining the current stable outlook will depend on the company's ability to fund its capital spending and manage future potential leverage increases. A material increase in PEMEX's financial leverage or further significant deterioration in its production profile could affect the company's ratings in the future. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The last rating action on PEMEX occurred on July 8, 2005, when Moody's announced the impact of its Government-Related Issuers (GRI) methodology on corporate issuers. [/FONT]
In positivo restano le attese di supporto governativo da parte del Messico, essendo Pemex società controllata dallo stato.
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's rates certificados bursatiles program of PEMEX[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]New York, April 17, 2009 -- Moody's assigned a Baa1 foreign currency bond rating and Aaa.mx national scale rating on April 3, 2009 to the Mexican Pesos 70 billion certificados bursátiles program of Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX). The ratings were also assigned to the initial Pesos 6 billion and Pesos 4 billion issuances (Clave de Pizarra PEMEX 09/09-2) under the program. The outlook for the ratings is stable. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]PEMEX's foreign currency and national scale ratings reflect the company's position as Mexico's largest company and its monopoly status as the country's sole producer of crude oil, natural gas and refined products. PEMEX had a sizable 14.3 billion BOE of proved hydrocarbon reserves (as of January 1, 2009) and oil and gas production in the area of 4.3 million BOE/day in 2008, in line with the largest integrated and national oil companies. It is also a leading crude oil exporter, with over 50% of its total crude production exported to the United States. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Although PEMEX's debt obligations are not guaranteed by the government of Mexico, our ratings reflect implicit government support, given the company's strategic importance as a generator of tax revenues and foreign exchange, and as a national asset belonging to the people of Mexico. PEMEX's debt obligations and unfunded pension liabilities have declined over the past two years but are likely to increase in a lower price environment in 2009. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]However, PEMEX faces numerous operational and financial challenges. It has not fully replaced production for many years. Production from the giant Cantarell oil field, which contributed over 60% of crude oil production as recently as 2005, declined by almost 25% in 2008 from 2007 levels. Despite ample pre-tax cash flows, a high tax burden has stymied capital retention and investment in reserves and key infrastructure and has resulted in a heavy debt burden. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Nevertheless, PEMEX has significantly increased its capital spending in the last two years. Capital spending in 2008 totaled approximately $19.4 billion and could be at a similar level in 2009, but it will be a challenging year to meet funding requirements as well as potential debt increases, given the collapse in crude prices and a 2009 capital budget that was initially based on a Mexican crude basket price of $70/bbl. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Tax reform in 2007 and the passage of energy reform in 2008 indicate that PEMEX's need to retain capital and to reinvest to grow production has gained more widespread recognition across party lines. The energy reform bill provides greater autonomy for PEMEX in setting its budgets, higher retentions of windfall oil revenues for internal investment, and new forms of incentive contracts that would allow foreign companies to enter into projects to develop Mexico's hydrocarbon resources. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]However, the energy reform did not accommodate more far-reaching changes such as production sharing or other forms of equity ownership that would promote accelerated investment in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, which holds Mexico's best prospects for future reserve and production growth. In addition, most of PEMEX's other operations, such as refining, remain closed to foreign investment or ownership. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]While we see little chance for significant private investment in the Mexican oil sector anytime soon, the recent energy reform indicates reinvestment and production prospects for PEMEX could start to improve.[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]We will continue to monitor the implementation of energy and tax reform and their benefits for PEMEX and its investment program. Maintaining the current stable outlook will depend on the company's ability to fund its capital spending and manage future potential leverage increases. A material increase in PEMEX's financial leverage or further significant deterioration in its production profile could affect the company's ratings in the future. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The last rating action on PEMEX occurred on July 8, 2005, when Moody's announced the impact of its Government-Related Issuers (GRI) methodology on corporate issuers. [/FONT]
