Obbligazioni societarie Obbligazioni Oil & Gas
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Imark
Forumer storico
Di recente, i risultati di Repsol e più in generale l'attività della oil company spagnola sono stati sotto la lente di due agenzie di rating. Moody's ha ridotto l'outlook sul debito di Repsol, portandolo da stabile a negativo.
In realtà, i significativi rinvenimenti di giacimenti petroliferi e di gas consistenti verificatisi di recente (entrambi offshore, in Brasile e in Venezuela) vedono entrambi Repsol cointeressata nel futuro sfruttamento in misura significativa, avendo giocato un ruolo primario nelle attività di prospezione in virtù delle particolari tecnologie sviluppate per l'esplorazione delle piattaforme sottomarine. Ciò che sostiene le aspettative di successo nella strategia di rafforzamento nell'upstream varata da Repsol tempo addietro.
L'abbassamento dell'outlook è invece dovuto ad un indebolimento della marginalità operativa e della capacità di generazione di cash flow, con conseguente aumento dei livelli del debito attesi per fine 2009.
I bassi prezzi del petrolio e del gas (ai quali ultimi Repsol è particolarmente esposta tramite la controllata argentina YPF, in corso di graduale disinvestimento) ed insieme la debolezza del margine nelle attività di raffinazione (molto consistenti nella penisola iberica) hanno portato ad una riduzione dell'utile operativo del 58% nei primi 6 mesi del 2009 rispetto ad analogo periodo del 2008.
Un parziale miglioramento è atteso nella seconda metà dell'anno per effetto di una serie di fattori (ripresa dei prezzi petroliferi, effettività delle misure di contenimento dei costi varate dalla società ecc.), e tuttavia rimangono critici sotto tale profilo l'elevata esposizione ai prezzi del gas sull'upstream e la debolezza del margine per l'attività di raffinazione sul downstream.
La ridotta capacità di generazione di cash flow da un lato, e dall'altro la consistenza del capex ed il pagamento del dividendo 2008 genererà un flusso di cassa negativo per l'intero 2009 ed in conseguenza, fra l'altro, una crescita del leverage ed un deterioramento di alcuni parametri finanziari legati al debito.
Il disinvestimento di ulteriori quote di YPF oltre a quella già ceduta viene valutato positivamente in termini di accrescimento della flessibilità finanziaria di Repsol in virtù del prezzo incassato dalla vendita, ma è incerto nei tempi di attuazione.
Eventuali segnali di debolezza dei bond (magari ci fossero) sarebbero da leggere quali opportunità di acquisto, IMHO...
Moody's changes outlook on Repsol's Baa1 to negative from stable
Approximately USD9.8 billion of rated debt securities affected
London, 24 September 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today changed the outlook for Repsol YPF S.A.("Repsol") to negative from stable. Moody's ratings include Repsol's Baa1 issuer rating, the Baa1/P-2 senior unsecured debt ratings of Repsol International Finance B.V. and the Baa3 preferred stock rating of Repsol International Capital Limited.
The revision in Repsol's outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the challenging operating conditions currently faced by the group, both in its upstream and downstream businesses, are likely to result in some marked deterioration in operating profitability and cash flow generation in fiscal 2009 leading to an increase in debt levels at year-end (even accounting for Gas Natural on an equity basis).
This, in turn, would leave the group's debt-protection metrics weakly positioned for the current Baa1 rating category at a time when much uncertainty remains with regard to the timing and scope of further divestment in YPF as well as the level of financial flexibility such transaction would provide permitting Repsol to strengthen its financial profile in the context of its core upstream growth strategy.
Moody's notes that Repsol's profitability has, in recent quarters, been significantly impacted by lower oil and gas prices, and very weak refining margins, as evidenced by the 58% year-on-year decline in operating profit (on a current cost basis) reported in the first half of 2009.
The recent recovery in the price of crude combined with additional operating and capital cost savings expected to accrue from the various measures initiated by management earlier in the year, and the recent decision of the Argentinean government to raise both residential and industrial local gas prices, should benefit financial results in the second half of the year.
However, Moody's believes that any improvement will be constrained by Repsol's above average exposure to the gas (60% of total production ex YPF) and refining sectors, in which trading conditions remain pretty challenging despite the expectation of higher demand going into the winter season and the recent evidence of a pick-up in industrial activity.
In this context, Moody's further notes that the profitability of Repsol's highly complex refineries has been particularly affected by the sharp deterioration in demand for gasoil at a time when inventories were historically elevated, and the narrow spreads between light and heavy crude oil resulting from OPEC production cuts.
Overall, Moody's believes that weaker operating cash flow generation combined with the maintenance of sizeable capex despite the deferral of some non-strategic projects (as Repsol is eager to capitalise on its recent upstream exploration successes in key growth areas such as Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico) and the payment of the company's 2008 dividend, will lead to a substantial cash deficit in full year 2009, even though proceeds from planned asset disposals are projected to fully offset the group's EUR1.08 billion participation in Gas Natural's capital increase carried out to partially fund the EUR15.6 billion acquisition of Union Fenosa.
As a result, Moody's expects Repsol to report higher debt leverage at the 2009 year-end (accounting for Gas Natural on an equity basis) and, in turn, some significant deterioration in credit metrics, with Retained Cash Flow to Net Debt likely to fall clearly below the through-the-cycle average of 35% that Moody's considers as commensurate with the group's Baa1 rating.
However, Moody's also notes that Repsol management remains firmly committed to further divestments of its holdings in the YPF subsidiary following the initial sale of a 14.9% interest to Argentinean industrial holding company Grupo Petersen for approximately USD2.2 billion in February 2008.
While the scope and timing of any potential future sale of an additional stake in YPF is highly uncertain at this juncture, Moody's would be looking to Repsol to take advantage of the added financial flexibility provided by such transaction to shore up its financial profile in the context of the ongoing execution of its core upstream strategy that has recently been enhanced by noticeable exploration successes.
Also, Moody's believes that Repsol's liquidity remains satisfactory despite expectation of weaker internal cash flow generation in the short-term.
At the end of June 2009, Repsol had EUR2.2 billion in cash and EUR3.3bn in undrawn credit lines (excluding Gas Natural). Following further refinancing completed since mid-year, Repsol should have sufficient committed availabilities to cover any potential cash shortfall from activities and debt maturities scheduled in the next twelve months.
A stabilisation of the outlook would be predicated on Repsol's ability to reposition its financial profile and credit metrics more in line with its Baa1 rating, while making further progress in the execution of its core upstream strategy in parallel with further divestment in YPF.
Moody's also notes that the change in Repsol's rating outlook to negative does not have any ramification for YPF S.A.'s Ba1 global local currency rating, which is largely based on standalone considerations given Repsol's stated strategic objective to reduce its current 84% ownership in and exposure to its Argentinean subsidiary.
Moody's previous rating action on Repsol was the change of outlook to stable from negative on the Baa1 rating on 3 June 2008.
For the assignment of this rating, Moody's has used its methodology for the Global Integrated Oil & Gas Industry, published in October 2005, and available on OpenDNS in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.
Headquartered in Madrid, Spain, Repsol YPF, is a major integrated oil and gas company with a strong downstream presence in the Iberian peninsular and upstream concentration in Latin America though expected to reduce as a result of its strategy to rebalance its portfolio through the partial divestment of YPF. In 2008, the group had sales revenues of EUR58 billion and produced 1.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (including YPF's contribution)
In realtà, i significativi rinvenimenti di giacimenti petroliferi e di gas consistenti verificatisi di recente (entrambi offshore, in Brasile e in Venezuela) vedono entrambi Repsol cointeressata nel futuro sfruttamento in misura significativa, avendo giocato un ruolo primario nelle attività di prospezione in virtù delle particolari tecnologie sviluppate per l'esplorazione delle piattaforme sottomarine. Ciò che sostiene le aspettative di successo nella strategia di rafforzamento nell'upstream varata da Repsol tempo addietro.
L'abbassamento dell'outlook è invece dovuto ad un indebolimento della marginalità operativa e della capacità di generazione di cash flow, con conseguente aumento dei livelli del debito attesi per fine 2009.
I bassi prezzi del petrolio e del gas (ai quali ultimi Repsol è particolarmente esposta tramite la controllata argentina YPF, in corso di graduale disinvestimento) ed insieme la debolezza del margine nelle attività di raffinazione (molto consistenti nella penisola iberica) hanno portato ad una riduzione dell'utile operativo del 58% nei primi 6 mesi del 2009 rispetto ad analogo periodo del 2008.
Un parziale miglioramento è atteso nella seconda metà dell'anno per effetto di una serie di fattori (ripresa dei prezzi petroliferi, effettività delle misure di contenimento dei costi varate dalla società ecc.), e tuttavia rimangono critici sotto tale profilo l'elevata esposizione ai prezzi del gas sull'upstream e la debolezza del margine per l'attività di raffinazione sul downstream.
La ridotta capacità di generazione di cash flow da un lato, e dall'altro la consistenza del capex ed il pagamento del dividendo 2008 genererà un flusso di cassa negativo per l'intero 2009 ed in conseguenza, fra l'altro, una crescita del leverage ed un deterioramento di alcuni parametri finanziari legati al debito.
Il disinvestimento di ulteriori quote di YPF oltre a quella già ceduta viene valutato positivamente in termini di accrescimento della flessibilità finanziaria di Repsol in virtù del prezzo incassato dalla vendita, ma è incerto nei tempi di attuazione.
Eventuali segnali di debolezza dei bond (magari ci fossero) sarebbero da leggere quali opportunità di acquisto, IMHO...
Moody's changes outlook on Repsol's Baa1 to negative from stable
Approximately USD9.8 billion of rated debt securities affected
London, 24 September 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today changed the outlook for Repsol YPF S.A.("Repsol") to negative from stable. Moody's ratings include Repsol's Baa1 issuer rating, the Baa1/P-2 senior unsecured debt ratings of Repsol International Finance B.V. and the Baa3 preferred stock rating of Repsol International Capital Limited.
The revision in Repsol's outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the challenging operating conditions currently faced by the group, both in its upstream and downstream businesses, are likely to result in some marked deterioration in operating profitability and cash flow generation in fiscal 2009 leading to an increase in debt levels at year-end (even accounting for Gas Natural on an equity basis).
This, in turn, would leave the group's debt-protection metrics weakly positioned for the current Baa1 rating category at a time when much uncertainty remains with regard to the timing and scope of further divestment in YPF as well as the level of financial flexibility such transaction would provide permitting Repsol to strengthen its financial profile in the context of its core upstream growth strategy.
Moody's notes that Repsol's profitability has, in recent quarters, been significantly impacted by lower oil and gas prices, and very weak refining margins, as evidenced by the 58% year-on-year decline in operating profit (on a current cost basis) reported in the first half of 2009.
The recent recovery in the price of crude combined with additional operating and capital cost savings expected to accrue from the various measures initiated by management earlier in the year, and the recent decision of the Argentinean government to raise both residential and industrial local gas prices, should benefit financial results in the second half of the year.
However, Moody's believes that any improvement will be constrained by Repsol's above average exposure to the gas (60% of total production ex YPF) and refining sectors, in which trading conditions remain pretty challenging despite the expectation of higher demand going into the winter season and the recent evidence of a pick-up in industrial activity.
In this context, Moody's further notes that the profitability of Repsol's highly complex refineries has been particularly affected by the sharp deterioration in demand for gasoil at a time when inventories were historically elevated, and the narrow spreads between light and heavy crude oil resulting from OPEC production cuts.
Overall, Moody's believes that weaker operating cash flow generation combined with the maintenance of sizeable capex despite the deferral of some non-strategic projects (as Repsol is eager to capitalise on its recent upstream exploration successes in key growth areas such as Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico) and the payment of the company's 2008 dividend, will lead to a substantial cash deficit in full year 2009, even though proceeds from planned asset disposals are projected to fully offset the group's EUR1.08 billion participation in Gas Natural's capital increase carried out to partially fund the EUR15.6 billion acquisition of Union Fenosa.
As a result, Moody's expects Repsol to report higher debt leverage at the 2009 year-end (accounting for Gas Natural on an equity basis) and, in turn, some significant deterioration in credit metrics, with Retained Cash Flow to Net Debt likely to fall clearly below the through-the-cycle average of 35% that Moody's considers as commensurate with the group's Baa1 rating.
However, Moody's also notes that Repsol management remains firmly committed to further divestments of its holdings in the YPF subsidiary following the initial sale of a 14.9% interest to Argentinean industrial holding company Grupo Petersen for approximately USD2.2 billion in February 2008.
While the scope and timing of any potential future sale of an additional stake in YPF is highly uncertain at this juncture, Moody's would be looking to Repsol to take advantage of the added financial flexibility provided by such transaction to shore up its financial profile in the context of the ongoing execution of its core upstream strategy that has recently been enhanced by noticeable exploration successes.
Also, Moody's believes that Repsol's liquidity remains satisfactory despite expectation of weaker internal cash flow generation in the short-term.
At the end of June 2009, Repsol had EUR2.2 billion in cash and EUR3.3bn in undrawn credit lines (excluding Gas Natural). Following further refinancing completed since mid-year, Repsol should have sufficient committed availabilities to cover any potential cash shortfall from activities and debt maturities scheduled in the next twelve months.
A stabilisation of the outlook would be predicated on Repsol's ability to reposition its financial profile and credit metrics more in line with its Baa1 rating, while making further progress in the execution of its core upstream strategy in parallel with further divestment in YPF.
Moody's also notes that the change in Repsol's rating outlook to negative does not have any ramification for YPF S.A.'s Ba1 global local currency rating, which is largely based on standalone considerations given Repsol's stated strategic objective to reduce its current 84% ownership in and exposure to its Argentinean subsidiary.
Moody's previous rating action on Repsol was the change of outlook to stable from negative on the Baa1 rating on 3 June 2008.
For the assignment of this rating, Moody's has used its methodology for the Global Integrated Oil & Gas Industry, published in October 2005, and available on OpenDNS in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.
Headquartered in Madrid, Spain, Repsol YPF, is a major integrated oil and gas company with a strong downstream presence in the Iberian peninsular and upstream concentration in Latin America though expected to reduce as a result of its strategy to rebalance its portfolio through the partial divestment of YPF. In 2008, the group had sales revenues of EUR58 billion and produced 1.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (including YPF's contribution)
Imark
Forumer storico
L'opinione di Fitch, che ha invece confermato rating ed outlook, tende a valorizzare il business profile di Repsol ed a considerare soddisfacente lo stato recente dei conti, considerato l'andamento dei prezzi di petrolio e gas. Qualche timore, in prospettiva, potrebbe venire per Fitch dai progetti di sviluppo dell'upstream in termini di consistenza del capex atteso, ma senza che ciò sia idoneo ad incidere neanche in termini di riduzione dell'outlook sull'emittente.
Fitch Affirms Repsol YPF's IDR at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable
18 Sep 2009 7:29 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-18 September 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Repsol YPF's (Repsol) ratings at Long-term Issuer Default (IDR) and senior unsecured 'BBB+', and Short-term IDR 'F2'. Ratings for senior unsecured issues by Repsol's wholly-owned indirect subsidiary, Repsol International Finance BV, which are fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Repsol, are also affirmed at 'BBB+'. Fitch has also affirmed ratings for the subordinated preference shares issued by Repsol International Capital Ltd at 'BBB'. The Outlook for the Long-term IDR is Stable.
The Stable Outlook for Repsol's ratings reflects Fitch's expectations that the company will maintain its strong downstream industry position and significant Iberian market share as management implements its strategy of expanding and converting the refineries at Cartegena and Bilbao.
Additionally, the Outlook is supported by the company's upstream strategy to replace reserves and increase oil output from the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Brazil, as well as to capitalize on its growing position in the global LNG market. The Outlook further reflects expectations that the company will adhere to a financial policy commensurate with current ratings.
Repsol's investment-grade ratings are supported by its integrated downstream business model in Spain, which provides the company with a competitive advantage by allowing it to actively market refined products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) even in a lower price environment.
Ratings are further supported by the company's established position in the global LNG market at Trinidad and Tobago, as well as new production from Peru LNG, which is expected to begin deliveries in the first half of 2010. As of 2008, Fitch estimates Repsol to have about 4 billion cubic meters per annum (bcma) of LNG trading volume and this is expected to rise to approximately 18 bcma by 2012.
Additionally, Repsol displays profitability commensurate with that of higher-rated peers with a three-year average EBITDAX to equivalent barrel of oil production of USD35.4 compared to USD42.3 for OMV AG ('A-'/Stable) and USD38.2 for BG Energy ('A+'/Stable).
Repsol's credit profile is challenged somewhat by the difficulty the company has experienced over the last three years in replacing bookable proved reserves and controlling finding and development costs as well as arresting declining production as measured on a three-year average basis, including that at YPF ('BB-'/Stable).
Additionally, Fitch expects the company to face material costs and technical challenges to implement its deep water strategies in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Brazil that could result in delays to the company achieving its stated strategic targets of 5% annual production growth and a 125% reserve replacement ratio by 2012.
Profitability in Q209 is in line with expectations given the decline in oil prices, with LTM 2009 EBITDA of EUR6.2bn compared to EUR8.2 bn in 2008. Cash flow generation remains encouraging with LTM cash flow from operations of EUR6.8bn compared to EUR6.6bn in 2008, mainly due to favourable working capital movements and lower cash taxes paid in the period.
Fitch anticipates Repsol will maintain conservative leverage metrics, measured as debt to capital employed excluding the group's exposure to its non-operating shareholding in Gas Natural, of less than 20% over the business cycle. As of Q209, this ratio stood at 12.9% compared to 11.9% at end-2008.
Fitch Affirms Repsol YPF's IDR at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable
18 Sep 2009 7:29 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-18 September 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Repsol YPF's (Repsol) ratings at Long-term Issuer Default (IDR) and senior unsecured 'BBB+', and Short-term IDR 'F2'. Ratings for senior unsecured issues by Repsol's wholly-owned indirect subsidiary, Repsol International Finance BV, which are fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Repsol, are also affirmed at 'BBB+'. Fitch has also affirmed ratings for the subordinated preference shares issued by Repsol International Capital Ltd at 'BBB'. The Outlook for the Long-term IDR is Stable.
The Stable Outlook for Repsol's ratings reflects Fitch's expectations that the company will maintain its strong downstream industry position and significant Iberian market share as management implements its strategy of expanding and converting the refineries at Cartegena and Bilbao.
Additionally, the Outlook is supported by the company's upstream strategy to replace reserves and increase oil output from the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Brazil, as well as to capitalize on its growing position in the global LNG market. The Outlook further reflects expectations that the company will adhere to a financial policy commensurate with current ratings.
Repsol's investment-grade ratings are supported by its integrated downstream business model in Spain, which provides the company with a competitive advantage by allowing it to actively market refined products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) even in a lower price environment.
Ratings are further supported by the company's established position in the global LNG market at Trinidad and Tobago, as well as new production from Peru LNG, which is expected to begin deliveries in the first half of 2010. As of 2008, Fitch estimates Repsol to have about 4 billion cubic meters per annum (bcma) of LNG trading volume and this is expected to rise to approximately 18 bcma by 2012.
Additionally, Repsol displays profitability commensurate with that of higher-rated peers with a three-year average EBITDAX to equivalent barrel of oil production of USD35.4 compared to USD42.3 for OMV AG ('A-'/Stable) and USD38.2 for BG Energy ('A+'/Stable).
Repsol's credit profile is challenged somewhat by the difficulty the company has experienced over the last three years in replacing bookable proved reserves and controlling finding and development costs as well as arresting declining production as measured on a three-year average basis, including that at YPF ('BB-'/Stable).
Additionally, Fitch expects the company to face material costs and technical challenges to implement its deep water strategies in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Brazil that could result in delays to the company achieving its stated strategic targets of 5% annual production growth and a 125% reserve replacement ratio by 2012.
Profitability in Q209 is in line with expectations given the decline in oil prices, with LTM 2009 EBITDA of EUR6.2bn compared to EUR8.2 bn in 2008. Cash flow generation remains encouraging with LTM cash flow from operations of EUR6.8bn compared to EUR6.6bn in 2008, mainly due to favourable working capital movements and lower cash taxes paid in the period.
Fitch anticipates Repsol will maintain conservative leverage metrics, measured as debt to capital employed excluding the group's exposure to its non-operating shareholding in Gas Natural, of less than 20% over the business cycle. As of Q209, this ratio stood at 12.9% compared to 11.9% at end-2008.
Imark
Forumer storico
Petrobras la seguiamo con la coda dell'occhio, in quanto ha solo bond in USD, che sono fuori dal monitor. Questo recente commento di Moody's, che ha elevato a positivo l'outlook sul rating Baa1 di Petrobras per il debito denominato in valuta estera offre l'occasione per esporre un fattore di valutazione di tale rating di questa GRE (Petrobras è una Governament related entity in quanto controllata dallo stato Brasiliano).
Il rating di Petrobras si colloca due livelli al di sopra di quello sovrano brasiliano, sull'assunto per cui, anche in caso di moratoria sul debito pubblico brasiliano in valuta estera (che oggi appare poco probabile, ma che è si è verificato con un a certa frequenza ancora fino ad un quarto di secolo fa) Moody's assume una bassa possibilità che ciò implichi un conseguenziale comportamento di Petrobras con riferimento ai propri titoli di debito in valute diverse da quella nazionale.
Moody's changes Petrobras Baa1 foreign currency outlook to positive
New York, September 23, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service changed the outlook for the Baa1 foreign currency bond rating of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) and its guaranteed subsidiaries to positive from stable. The change in rating outlook is in response to the upgrade of the government of Brazil's long-term foreign currency rating to Baa3 from Ba1, with a positive outlook. In conjunction with that action, Moody's also raised Brazil's foreign currency bond ceiling to Baa2 from Baa3 with a positive outlook. For further information on the sovereign rating action, please see OpenDNS.
The positive outlook considers that Petrobras's Baa1 foreign currency rating is likely to be upgraded and equalized with its A3 local currency rating in the event that the government bond rating is upgraded to Baa2.
We think that Petrobras's foreign currency rating is appropriately positioned at two notches above Brazil's foreign currency bond rating, based on our assessment of the low likelihood that Petrobras would be affected in the event of a general moratorium in Brazil on foreign currency debt payments.
Petrobras's A3 local currency rating is not affected by these actions. It reflects application of joint-default analysis under Moody's government-related issuers methodology, which considers a baseline credit assessment for Petrobras of 8 (comparable to Baa1) and factors in a high level of implied support by the government and a medium level of default correlation between Petrobras and the government.
The last rating action affecting Petrobras occurred on June 18, 2009, when we affirmed the company's foreign currency bond rating and downgraded its global local currency rating to A3, reflecting an increased level of dependence between Petrobras and the government of Brazil.
The principal methodology used in rating Petrobras was Moody's Global Integrated Oil rating methodology, published in October 2005 and The Application of Joint Default Analysis to Government-Related Issuers, published in April 2005, both of which are available on OpenDNS in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras), based in Rio de Janeiro, is an integrated petroleum company and the largest corporation in Brazil. The government owns 55.7% of Petrobras's common stock, and directly and indirectly owns about 43% of Petrobras's common and preferred shares outstanding.
Il rating di Petrobras si colloca due livelli al di sopra di quello sovrano brasiliano, sull'assunto per cui, anche in caso di moratoria sul debito pubblico brasiliano in valuta estera (che oggi appare poco probabile, ma che è si è verificato con un a certa frequenza ancora fino ad un quarto di secolo fa) Moody's assume una bassa possibilità che ciò implichi un conseguenziale comportamento di Petrobras con riferimento ai propri titoli di debito in valute diverse da quella nazionale.
Moody's changes Petrobras Baa1 foreign currency outlook to positive
New York, September 23, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service changed the outlook for the Baa1 foreign currency bond rating of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) and its guaranteed subsidiaries to positive from stable. The change in rating outlook is in response to the upgrade of the government of Brazil's long-term foreign currency rating to Baa3 from Ba1, with a positive outlook. In conjunction with that action, Moody's also raised Brazil's foreign currency bond ceiling to Baa2 from Baa3 with a positive outlook. For further information on the sovereign rating action, please see OpenDNS.
The positive outlook considers that Petrobras's Baa1 foreign currency rating is likely to be upgraded and equalized with its A3 local currency rating in the event that the government bond rating is upgraded to Baa2.
We think that Petrobras's foreign currency rating is appropriately positioned at two notches above Brazil's foreign currency bond rating, based on our assessment of the low likelihood that Petrobras would be affected in the event of a general moratorium in Brazil on foreign currency debt payments.
Petrobras's A3 local currency rating is not affected by these actions. It reflects application of joint-default analysis under Moody's government-related issuers methodology, which considers a baseline credit assessment for Petrobras of 8 (comparable to Baa1) and factors in a high level of implied support by the government and a medium level of default correlation between Petrobras and the government.
The last rating action affecting Petrobras occurred on June 18, 2009, when we affirmed the company's foreign currency bond rating and downgraded its global local currency rating to A3, reflecting an increased level of dependence between Petrobras and the government of Brazil.
The principal methodology used in rating Petrobras was Moody's Global Integrated Oil rating methodology, published in October 2005 and The Application of Joint Default Analysis to Government-Related Issuers, published in April 2005, both of which are available on OpenDNS in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras), based in Rio de Janeiro, is an integrated petroleum company and the largest corporation in Brazil. The government owns 55.7% of Petrobras's common stock, and directly and indirectly owns about 43% of Petrobras's common and preferred shares outstanding.
samantaao
Forumer storico
Imark
Forumer storico
mi serve data e prezzo di emissione
grazie
Ciao Carlo, domani vedo di procurarti io le info che ti occorrono... la Eni di cui parlavamo in mp è questa indicata da Dupondius...
azetaelle
investitore(s)qualificato
scusa, vedo solo ora il tuo messaggiomi serve data e prezzo di emissione
grazie
ti allego la scheda
da notare che la prima cedola è il 09/01/10
Allegati
Imark
Forumer storico
Ciao Carlo, domani vedo di procurarti io le info che ti occorrono... la Eni di cui parlavamo in mp è questa indicata da Dupondius...
Per la ENI 2019, 99,43 il prezzo di emissione, avvenuta in data 14/09/2009...
woolloomooloo
Forumer storico
Internazionale di questa settimana ha pubblicato , traducendolo in italiano, questo articolo del Financial Times
FT.com / Reportage - The Iraqi who saved Norway from oil
che c'entra con il monitor? poco, se non che forse è dovuto a questo iracheno la nascita di STATOIL
FT.com / Reportage - The Iraqi who saved Norway from oil
che c'entra con il monitor? poco, se non che forse è dovuto a questo iracheno la nascita di STATOIL
Imark
Forumer storico
Un report di Fitch sullo stato dell'arte del comparto, limitatamente ai players europei. Il leitmotiv è che le società, contrariamente alle attese di Fitch, non hanno tagliato il capex del 10% rispetto al 2008, pur tagliando drasticamente i costi in alcune aree, quale ad es. quella delle attività di prospezione, e posponendo l'attuazione di progetti di sviluppo non compatibili con prezzi del petrolio quali quelli correnti.
Nello sforzo di mantenere inalterati il capex ed i dividendi, mentre i flussi di cassa si riducono per effetto del prezzo del petrolio e si desidera mantenere immutati i livelli di cash disponibili, le oil companies europee ricorreranno sempre più al mercato obbligazionario, secondo Fitch, in attesa di una ripresa dei prezzi (ndr: ammesso che arrivi...).
Peraltro questo ulteriore ricorso all'indebitamento, inizialmente non previsto da Fitch, non sembra idoneo ad incidere sui rating delle oil companies, stante un profilo finanziario piuttosto forte, con livelli di indebitamento di partenza bassi, politiche di bilancio conservative e provata capacità di generazione di free cash flow lungo tutti i livelli del business cicle.
Una serie di ulteriori caratteristiche, quali la posizione sui mercati di riferimento, il controllo statale, il percepito carattere difensivo del comparto ecc. concorrono a facilitare l'accesso al mercato del debito, come dimostrato dalle emissioni delle società del comparto verificatesi nel 2009.
Il report è allegato in calce...
Fitch: European Oil Majors Expected To Weather Downturn
06 Oct 2009 9:03 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-06 October 2009: Fitch Ratings says in a special report today that despite the global economic downturn, European integrated oil majors maintained healthy credit profiles in H109, primarily due to aggressive operating cost-cutting measures in areas such as upstream exploration, and through the postponement of development projects that are not economically viable in a lower crude oil price environment.
The report compares and contrasts the relative performance of European integrated oil majors over the last few years, and comments on their current market positioning against a range of factors, both operational and financial. The report also comments on the fact that contrary to Fitch's expectations at end-2008, of companies reducing capital expenditures by up to 10% this year as a result of the economic slowdown, capex spending has been broadly maintained in line with 2008 levels on the expectation of a recovery in 2010.
"With operating cash flows for the European oil majors decreasing in 2009, in line with falling crude oil prices, Fitch expects new bond issuance to play a larger role in companies' capital structures as they look for ways to remain cash neutral and maintain capital expenditures and dividend payments," says Jeffrey Woodruff, Senior Director in Fitch's Oil and Gas team.
"However, these additional borrowings have only marginally affected the companies' credit metrics such as leverage and gearing ratios, which still remain within the companies' publically-stated target ranges as well as in line with longer-term historical averages," Woodruff added.
The high-investment-grade ratings for the large European integrated oil majors generally reflect their leading global market positions, viable business strategies and superior operational profiles, complemented by conservative financial policies and proven free cash flow (FCF) generation through the business cycle.
Furthermore, the combination of reasonable levels of balance sheet leverage and perceived defensive sector qualities has resulted in better access to public bond markets in H109 for the European oil majors, as evidenced by Royal Dutch/Shell Group ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable), BP plc ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable), and Total SA ('AA'/'F1+'/Stable) bond issues this year.
The Stable Outlooks for these ratings reflect Fitch's expectation that as the global economy recovers, the European integrated oil majors will remain well positioned to benefit from improving business conditions. The Outlooks also reflect the agency's belief that companies will maintain credit metrics in line with levels appropriate for their respective ratings.
A copy of the published report, entitled "European Intergrated Oil Majors - 'AA' Peer Analysis", can be found on the agency's website at FitchResearch.
Nello sforzo di mantenere inalterati il capex ed i dividendi, mentre i flussi di cassa si riducono per effetto del prezzo del petrolio e si desidera mantenere immutati i livelli di cash disponibili, le oil companies europee ricorreranno sempre più al mercato obbligazionario, secondo Fitch, in attesa di una ripresa dei prezzi (ndr: ammesso che arrivi...).
Peraltro questo ulteriore ricorso all'indebitamento, inizialmente non previsto da Fitch, non sembra idoneo ad incidere sui rating delle oil companies, stante un profilo finanziario piuttosto forte, con livelli di indebitamento di partenza bassi, politiche di bilancio conservative e provata capacità di generazione di free cash flow lungo tutti i livelli del business cicle.
Una serie di ulteriori caratteristiche, quali la posizione sui mercati di riferimento, il controllo statale, il percepito carattere difensivo del comparto ecc. concorrono a facilitare l'accesso al mercato del debito, come dimostrato dalle emissioni delle società del comparto verificatesi nel 2009.
Il report è allegato in calce...
Fitch: European Oil Majors Expected To Weather Downturn
06 Oct 2009 9:03 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-06 October 2009: Fitch Ratings says in a special report today that despite the global economic downturn, European integrated oil majors maintained healthy credit profiles in H109, primarily due to aggressive operating cost-cutting measures in areas such as upstream exploration, and through the postponement of development projects that are not economically viable in a lower crude oil price environment.
The report compares and contrasts the relative performance of European integrated oil majors over the last few years, and comments on their current market positioning against a range of factors, both operational and financial. The report also comments on the fact that contrary to Fitch's expectations at end-2008, of companies reducing capital expenditures by up to 10% this year as a result of the economic slowdown, capex spending has been broadly maintained in line with 2008 levels on the expectation of a recovery in 2010.
"With operating cash flows for the European oil majors decreasing in 2009, in line with falling crude oil prices, Fitch expects new bond issuance to play a larger role in companies' capital structures as they look for ways to remain cash neutral and maintain capital expenditures and dividend payments," says Jeffrey Woodruff, Senior Director in Fitch's Oil and Gas team.
"However, these additional borrowings have only marginally affected the companies' credit metrics such as leverage and gearing ratios, which still remain within the companies' publically-stated target ranges as well as in line with longer-term historical averages," Woodruff added.
The high-investment-grade ratings for the large European integrated oil majors generally reflect their leading global market positions, viable business strategies and superior operational profiles, complemented by conservative financial policies and proven free cash flow (FCF) generation through the business cycle.
Furthermore, the combination of reasonable levels of balance sheet leverage and perceived defensive sector qualities has resulted in better access to public bond markets in H109 for the European oil majors, as evidenced by Royal Dutch/Shell Group ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable), BP plc ('AA+'/'F1+'/Stable), and Total SA ('AA'/'F1+'/Stable) bond issues this year.
The Stable Outlooks for these ratings reflect Fitch's expectation that as the global economy recovers, the European integrated oil majors will remain well positioned to benefit from improving business conditions. The Outlooks also reflect the agency's belief that companies will maintain credit metrics in line with levels appropriate for their respective ratings.
A copy of the published report, entitled "European Intergrated Oil Majors - 'AA' Peer Analysis", can be found on the agency's website at FitchResearch.
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