Prospects for emerging market hard currency bonds in 2012 positively - Europe and Africa regions are above the market average
ING Investment View
Once the economy has bottomed out, expect ING Investment Management (ING IM) is a good year for Emerging Market Debt Hard Currency. A generous supply of liquidity and attractive valuations will also provide a positive stimulus. To Rob Drijkoningen, Head of Global Emerging Markets ING IM:
"We remain optimistic until further notice, as far as this asset class. All four factors in our top-down evaluation is currently positive. The economic reports suggest that the economy has now bottomed out. This is mainly due to the generous supply of liquidity by the ECB. It is hoped that the liquidity pumped into the system finally reached the real economy. Even though there is no evidence. create the long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) of the ECB continued favorable funding conditions for banks. Indirectly, this has also contributed to a reduction in spreads on government bonds of countries such as Italy and Spain, for it is here to take very many local banks to refinance options on the ECB's claim. " In absolute terms remain the reviews attractive in the opinion of the Asset Manager. The risk premiums offer a very reasonable compensation for the expected default probabilities. With low debt ratios, strong fundamentals and greater monetary and fiscal policy freedom of movement is one here in a good position to deal with any difficulties. Rob Drijkoningen continues: "Some countries continue the monetary easing, even if the global market environment now requires somewhat less momentum. On the other hand, the development is growth in some emerging countries, probably a bit too slow to provide real stimulus. Pulses are therefore expected to be primarily by monetary policy. This is especially the case in China and Brazil ". be regional benefit to ING IM's assessment of Central and Eastern Europe continue to lower the risk of global conditions, the Czech Republic, Latvia and Turkey put back in February on new issues. Lithuania and Poland, led the rally: Both countries have strong growth data (GDP growth rate of 4.3 and 5.8 percent in 2011) at a friendly budget situation. Drijkoningen Rob: "Turkey cut off too well, because the better have scattered - Growth prospects for the euro zone, the fear of a hard landing of the Turkish economy - with growth of over 8 percent last year. But rising oil prices and doubts about whether the central bank is sufficient to price stability effort to encourage inflation and financial worries. " With regard to Africa, another top performer, the asset manager comes to the conclusion that South Africa, the markets with his unexpected rapid program surprised to fiscal consolidation in 2012 and 2013. At the same time the country has strengthened its infrastructure spending to spur growth. At the same time, the program also dispelled doubts about the long-term budgetary impact of the proposed national health insurance. Drijkoningen Rob: "In the wake of political and economic stabilization of the Ivory Coast cut above average. The official results of parliamentary elections confirm now a majority for the party of President Ouattara. After completion of the power struggle for the export of cocoa from the cocoa business revenues have increased once again strong. Meanwhile, also seems to stabilize the situation in Egypt. The country has a downgrade to 'B' by S & P probably coped well, which may be due to the depletion of foreign reserves and the associated pressure have fallen to the external financing. After leaving the territory for several NGO workers, including U.S. citizens, was finally lifted, left after the tensions between Egypt and the United States. This could pave the way for an IMF loan of 3.1 billion dollars. " The ING Emerging Markets Debt Hard Currency Fund (ISIN: LU0546915058) outperformed its benchmark in February. This positive development was due in large country and stock selection. The selective weighting of countries with a higher risk countries - particularly Venezuela, to be called here - was also an important factor. Drijkoningen Rob concluded: "Our position in the high-grade segment as a whole has also contributed to some extent on our performance. It primarily provided at the lower weights Chile, Brazil, Mexico and Uruguay, an important stimulus. This positive contribution exceeded the likely negative effects of overweight in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Budget proved to be the selection of individual stocks, because our positions in Brazilian, Mexican and Russian corporate bonds cut out against a background of continuing demand and to corporates than the corresponding bonds