Analisi Intermarket ....quelli che.... Investire&tradare - Cap. 2
- Creatore Discussione Dogtown
- Data di Inizio
DDUKE
Viva i popoli, Viva le Nazioni europee, fanculo U€
A proposito di t-note, se DeMark dovesse avere ragione, è possibile che nel medio-lungo, che per me significa time frame mensile, quindi orizzonte temporale da 6 mesi a un anno, i rendimenti possano comprimersi nuovamente fino ad eguagliare, o anche a scendere sotto i minimi registrati questa primavera.
Andiamo con ordine, comincio dal tf monthly, dove abbiamo un lunghissimo sell setup di ben 20 candele (qui parliamo di 1 mese a candle) che ha generato conteggi di countdown non esauriti in alcuna delle due versioni.
Per come sono caratterizzati i countdowns, affinchè si completino sono necessari nuovi max (in termini di prezzo, corrispondenti a nuovi min in termini di rendimento) per il td combo (nero), e/o valori (anche intrabar) > del close di barra 8 per il sequential (bianco)
Senza voler in alcun modo sentenziare un bel nulla, il sistema indica che chi shortasse in ottica di lungo da questi valori correrebbe il rischio di ritrovarsi con i prezzi a ridosso e anche oltre i max di qualche mese fa.
Su tf weekly, invece, situazione delicatissima, conseguente al violento storno dei mesi scorsi, con generazione di buy setup e prezzi a traballare intorno al supporto di medio tdst a 124.097.
La tenuta favorirebbe il rimbalzo o l' inversione, il taglio al ribasso la continuazione del trend bearish di medio fino al completamento di almeno un countdown (il che significherebbe diverse settimane ancora di rialzo dei rendimenti, visto lo stadio dei conteggi, neppure a metà corsa).
Interessante notare, sia sul monthly che sul weekly, l' ipervenduto del demarker.
Sul breve, invece, tf daily, il segnale di bottom è maturato ai primi del mese, sebbene nella forma lievemente più lasca del "termination count", il che significa, ma non è detto!, che i prezzi potrebbero anche andare a ritestare i recenti minimi prima di ripartire di nuovo, fatta salva ovviamente la formazione di nuovi elementi di analisi a mutare il quadro (nuovi setups, etc); oppure, che l' inversione di breve va già a braccetto con la tenuta del tdst di medio e siamo già in rampa di lancio...
P.S. scusate per le precisazioni scolastiche su prezzi e rendimenti, le ho inserite solo a beneficio di qualche ipotetico lettore magari poco pratico di relazioni inverse fra prezzi e rendimenti sui bonds, non certo per fare il "sor pedante pelnellovo" con i lettori abituali del 3d, ci mancherebbe altro
Visto i cagnacci e gli inglesi/giapponesi e a parte calamità naturali ci rimangono, per rivedere rendimenti così bassi, o una nuova € tensione, quella decisiva, o una crisi degli emergenti.
Ovviamente io propendo per la 1° perchè in Italia, Spagna, Portogallo, Grecia e adesso Francia...siamo molto vicini all'inizio della rivoluzione.
E aggingo che comportamenti come quelli tenuti dalla Renna di ieri e il suo galoppino rigorsmontis non fanno altro che gettare benzina sul fuoco.
Per dire "bravo Gasparri" vuol dire proprio che siamo agli sgoccioli.
DDUKE
Viva i popoli, Viva le Nazioni europee, fanculo U€
La cosa grave è che abbia pensato che Noi fossimo interessati a quello che pensava:
"Spetta al governo valutare cosa sia necessario fare". A dichiararlo è stato Simon O'Connor, portavoce del commissario europeo Olli Rehn in riferimento alla possibilità che il Governo italiano decida di aumentare o meno l´Iva a ottobre.
Il dibattito su un possibile incremento dell´imposta sul valore aggiunto dal 21% al 22% è ritornato in auge ieri, quando il dossier Iva è stato oggetto di discussione tra il ministro delle Finanze Fabrizio Saccomanni e Olli Rehn in un'audizione davanti alle commissioni Bilancio di Camera e Senato.
"Spetta al governo valutare cosa sia necessario fare". A dichiararlo è stato Simon O'Connor, portavoce del commissario europeo Olli Rehn in riferimento alla possibilità che il Governo italiano decida di aumentare o meno l´Iva a ottobre.
Il dibattito su un possibile incremento dell´imposta sul valore aggiunto dal 21% al 22% è ritornato in auge ieri, quando il dossier Iva è stato oggetto di discussione tra il ministro delle Finanze Fabrizio Saccomanni e Olli Rehn in un'audizione davanti alle commissioni Bilancio di Camera e Senato.
lupoalberto66
Forumer storico
Visto i cagnacci e gli inglesi/giapponesi e a parte calamità naturali ci rimangono, per rivedere rendimenti così bassi, o una nuova € tensione, quella decisiva, o una crisi degli emergenti.
Ovviamente io propendo per la 1° perchè in Italia, Spagna, Portogallo, Grecia e adesso Francia...siamo molto vicini all'inizio della rivoluzione.
E aggingo che comportamenti come quelli tenuti dalla Renna di ieri e il suo galoppino rigorsmontis non fanno altro che gettare benzina sul fuoco.
Per dire "bravo Gasparri" vuol dire proprio che siamo agli sgoccioli.
...magari anche una delusione sulla ripresa USA e conseguente rinvio del tapering serio alle calende greche... mah, è davvero un gran casino
stamattina pensavo esattamente la stessa cosa... "mi ritrovo con una dichiarazione di gasparri
" ..."Ringraziamenti invece «per la sua lucida analisi» da parte del presidente della commissione Bilancio della Camera Francesco Boccia. L'ex premier Mario Monti si è sentito in dovere di telefonare personalmente a Rehn per esprimergli «rispetto e solidarietà» anche a nome di Scelta Civica per le espressioni incivili di cui è stato oggetto"...
FreeWind69
...armonia
...magari anche una delusione sulla ripresa USA e conseguente rinvio del tapering serio alle calende greche... mah, è davvero un gran casino
stamattina pensavo esattamente la stessa cosa... "mi ritrovo con una dichiarazione di gasparri
..."Ringraziamenti invece «per la sua lucida analisi» da parte del presidente della commissione Bilancio della Camera Francesco Boccia. L'ex premier Mario Monti si è sentito in dovere di telefonare personalmente a Rehn per esprimergli «rispetto e solidarietà» anche a nome di Scelta Civica per le espressioni incivili di cui è stato oggetto"...
...non lo sapevo ...bella notizia
DDUKE
Viva i popoli, Viva le Nazioni europee, fanculo U€
...magari anche una delusione sulla ripresa USA e conseguente rinvio del tapering serio alle calende greche... mah, è davvero un gran casino
stamattina pensavo esattamente la stessa cosa... "mi ritrovo con una dichiarazione di gasparri
..."Ringraziamenti invece «per la sua lucida analisi» da parte del presidente della commissione Bilancio della Camera Francesco Boccia. L'ex premier Mario Monti si è sentito in dovere di telefonare personalmente a Rehn per esprimergli «rispetto e solidarietà» anche a nome di Scelta Civica per le espressioni incivili di cui è stato oggetto"...
si, ma così come siam messi a mercato azionario ??? cioè indici che salngo sempre perchè QE a manetta e ratei stretti ???? Allora sarebbe ancor più bolla di quella detta prima.
Io credo che sarà l'Europa a scoppiare o meglio la cermania perderà la guerra un'altra volta.
lupoalberto66
Forumer storico
è il solito trito teatrino della comunicazione, uno accende il fuoco e l' altro si fa vedere con una brocca d' acqua
non riescono a non essere banali, però si credono scaltri
comunque, il simpatico finnico ieri si è presentato e ha parlato come un governatore delle colonie, anzi non ha parlato, ha sentenziato, e ha ottenuto il suo effetto, come un sasso in un termitaio: tutti a scappare in direzioni diverse, ognuno pensando al proprio squallido piccolo misero infimo e pulcioso tornacontino politico, nessuno escluso.
Che miseria
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
da Barclays...
Happy taper day
· The USD has largely maintained yesterday’s losses in Asia as financial markets remain range-bound ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. Most Asia rates have declined in line with lower UST yields, and despite the rally in US equity markets, Asia equities are mixed.
· We expect the Fed to reduce its monthly pace of asset purchases to $70bn from $85bn at its meeting today. In the Fed’s projections, we look for the target funds rate for end-2016 to be around 3.0% (vs. market pricing of 2.1%), consistent with a regular pace of policy firming once rate hikes start (Full Story).
· Although the USD has recently weakened against most currencies, we believe that news from the FOMC meeting, including the projected path for the target funds rate, will be positive for the USD and supportive of medium-term trend appreciation (Full Story). As such, we recommend being long USD/JPY.
· After the conclusion of the September FOMC meeting, we expect speculation about the next Fed chair to intensify. In our view, Vice Chair of the Board Janet Yellen is the most likely candidate to replace Chairman Bernanke, with former Vice Chair of the Board Donald Kohn a distant second (Full Story).
· Elsewhere, the BoE’s MPC minutes will provide some insight on the Committee’s thinking in the context of improving UK economic momentum. In the near term, we think GBP can continue to rally as markets remain unconvinced of Governor Carney’s forward guidance and recommend being short EUR/GBP rather than long GBP/USD to express this view (Full Story).
· Another period of fiscal policy uncertainty seems likely, but there is a key difference between this September and the Septembers over 2009-12 when the Fed was either buying assets or had preannounced a new program. This year, it is preparing to weaken the portfolio balance effect. In our view, for equities to overcome unfavourable seasonality and another round of fiscal concerns, fundamentals will have to improve considerably (see Focus below).
· The USD has largely maintained yesterday’s losses in Asia as financial markets remain range-bound ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. Most Asia rates have declined in line with lower UST yields, and despite the rally in US equity markets, Asia equities are mixed.
· We expect the Fed to reduce its monthly pace of asset purchases to $70bn from $85bn at its meeting today. In the Fed’s projections, we look for the target funds rate for end-2016 to be around 3.0% (vs. market pricing of 2.1%), consistent with a regular pace of policy firming once rate hikes start (Full Story).
· Although the USD has recently weakened against most currencies, we believe that news from the FOMC meeting, including the projected path for the target funds rate, will be positive for the USD and supportive of medium-term trend appreciation (Full Story). As such, we recommend being long USD/JPY.
· After the conclusion of the September FOMC meeting, we expect speculation about the next Fed chair to intensify. In our view, Vice Chair of the Board Janet Yellen is the most likely candidate to replace Chairman Bernanke, with former Vice Chair of the Board Donald Kohn a distant second (Full Story).
· Elsewhere, the BoE’s MPC minutes will provide some insight on the Committee’s thinking in the context of improving UK economic momentum. In the near term, we think GBP can continue to rally as markets remain unconvinced of Governor Carney’s forward guidance and recommend being short EUR/GBP rather than long GBP/USD to express this view (Full Story).
· Another period of fiscal policy uncertainty seems likely, but there is a key difference between this September and the Septembers over 2009-12 when the Fed was either buying assets or had preannounced a new program. This year, it is preparing to weaken the portfolio balance effect. In our view, for equities to overcome unfavourable seasonality and another round of fiscal concerns, fundamentals will have to improve considerably (see Focus below).
While our memories of an extremely volatile September – five years ago – remain fresh, the last four have been exceptionally tame. It is not as if there weren’t plenty of potential sources of volatility, most of which were related to public policy uncertainty: two fiscal cliffs, two highly emotional elections, a sovereign debt downgrade and the collapse of a Congressional Joint Select Committee to fix the budget. Based on the president’s speech on Monday and the recent collapse of a GOP continuing resolution plan, another period of fiscal uncertainty seems likely. But there is a key difference from the surprisingly low volatility Septembers in 2009-12. In that period, the Fed was either buying assets or had pre-announced a new program; this year, it is preparing to weaken the portfolio balance effect. In our view, for equities to overcome unfavorable seasonality and another round of fiscal concerns, fundamentals, which have been mediocre for over a year, due primarily to weakening global and soft domestic growth, will have to improve considerably.
The equity market’s reactions to the monetary policy inflection point, when the Fed takes the first step to normalize monetary policy following easing in response to recession, have been reasonably similar, irrespective of the pace of policy accommodation removal – the average policy normalization-related correction during the prior six business cycles is 8.9%. It is after those periods when key fundamentals, such as earnings and valuation, play a greater role in determining equity market returns.
The last three cycles (1983, 1994 and 2004) are instructive. In 1983, valuation was exceptionally attractive; however, a volatile earnings recovery, similar to this business cycle, left earnings growth at a comparatively slow rate of 5% when the Fed began normalizing policy. The correction was mild compared with the average, and it was five quarters before the advance resumed when earnings growth accelerated in 1985. In sharp contrast, when the ‘measured removal of policy accommodation’ began in 2004, the S&P 500 was still exceptionally expensive, but robust earnings growth shortened the post-correction range to two quarters. The correction in 1994 was steeper than in 1983 and 2004, yet the duration of the subsequent trading range was between those two at three quarters, with relatively strong earnings growth of 15% and low valuations helping equities withstand an aggressive tightening cycle. Valuation appeared to be a larger driver of share prices after the advance resumed. Returns in 1995 were the strongest at 37%, followed by 1985’s 27%, while 2005 returns were in the mid-single digits as rich valuations constrained returns.
The equity market’s reactions to the monetary policy inflection point, when the Fed takes the first step to normalize monetary policy following easing in response to recession, have been reasonably similar, irrespective of the pace of policy accommodation removal – the average policy normalization-related correction during the prior six business cycles is 8.9%. It is after those periods when key fundamentals, such as earnings and valuation, play a greater role in determining equity market returns.
The last three cycles (1983, 1994 and 2004) are instructive. In 1983, valuation was exceptionally attractive; however, a volatile earnings recovery, similar to this business cycle, left earnings growth at a comparatively slow rate of 5% when the Fed began normalizing policy. The correction was mild compared with the average, and it was five quarters before the advance resumed when earnings growth accelerated in 1985. In sharp contrast, when the ‘measured removal of policy accommodation’ began in 2004, the S&P 500 was still exceptionally expensive, but robust earnings growth shortened the post-correction range to two quarters. The correction in 1994 was steeper than in 1983 and 2004, yet the duration of the subsequent trading range was between those two at three quarters, with relatively strong earnings growth of 15% and low valuations helping equities withstand an aggressive tightening cycle. Valuation appeared to be a larger driver of share prices after the advance resumed. Returns in 1995 were the strongest at 37%, followed by 1985’s 27%, while 2005 returns were in the mid-single digits as rich valuations constrained returns.
Note: 1983 data are reported earnings; all other years are operating. Last reported quarter for corresponding dates are 2Q83, 1Q94, 4Q03 and 2Q13. Source: S&P, Barclays Research
Before we move on to the current environment, it is notable that in addition to a seemingly poor mix of earnings growth and valuation in this cycle relative to the previous three, the average advance from the recession low, prior to Fed policy normalization, from 1971-2004 was 53%; this cycle, it is nearly 160%. Earnings volatility this business cycle is similar to that in the early 1980s: a robust early-cycle rebound followed by a mid-cycle slowdown to nearly zero before reaccelerating. The source of the volatility this cycle is foreign sales: the strong recovery of emerging market economies in 2009-10 deteriorated, with foreign sales growth falling below domestic revenues, which have been growing steadily, albeit at a slow rate close to nominal GDP, which has, of course, been weaker than prior in business cycles.
There are some encouraging signs: domestic revenues are turning higher, foreign sales appear to have rebounded slowly from zero growth in 3Q12 and global PMIs, which typically correlate well with leading indicators for earnings such as analyst revisions, have improved considerably. However, our global growth forecasts do not suggest foreign-sourced earnings growth will return to prior-cycle levels. Our domestic forecast will not help much in the near term either, as 3Q13 GDP is tracking slightly below trend for the recovery, which is likely why analyst revision momentum is flat and lagging ISM new orders.
So while for the moment falling geopolitical and Fed Chair succession risks triggered a rally back to the highs, if Wednesday marks the first step in the exit from the second period of FOMC financial repression, as we expect, the equity market will likely require some improvement in earnings growth to drive share prices higher. We believe an improved capital spending environment, a potential loosening of mortgage credit, a reduced drag from tax hikes on consumption, the end of the European recession and resulting pickup in global trade bode well for the 2014 outlook. However, autumn is volatility season; a budget battle, an unfavorable mix of valuation and earnings growth and the Fed’s weakening the portfolio balance channel imply a return to normalcy.
Before we move on to the current environment, it is notable that in addition to a seemingly poor mix of earnings growth and valuation in this cycle relative to the previous three, the average advance from the recession low, prior to Fed policy normalization, from 1971-2004 was 53%; this cycle, it is nearly 160%. Earnings volatility this business cycle is similar to that in the early 1980s: a robust early-cycle rebound followed by a mid-cycle slowdown to nearly zero before reaccelerating. The source of the volatility this cycle is foreign sales: the strong recovery of emerging market economies in 2009-10 deteriorated, with foreign sales growth falling below domestic revenues, which have been growing steadily, albeit at a slow rate close to nominal GDP, which has, of course, been weaker than prior in business cycles.
There are some encouraging signs: domestic revenues are turning higher, foreign sales appear to have rebounded slowly from zero growth in 3Q12 and global PMIs, which typically correlate well with leading indicators for earnings such as analyst revisions, have improved considerably. However, our global growth forecasts do not suggest foreign-sourced earnings growth will return to prior-cycle levels. Our domestic forecast will not help much in the near term either, as 3Q13 GDP is tracking slightly below trend for the recovery, which is likely why analyst revision momentum is flat and lagging ISM new orders.
So while for the moment falling geopolitical and Fed Chair succession risks triggered a rally back to the highs, if Wednesday marks the first step in the exit from the second period of FOMC financial repression, as we expect, the equity market will likely require some improvement in earnings growth to drive share prices higher. We believe an improved capital spending environment, a potential loosening of mortgage credit, a reduced drag from tax hikes on consumption, the end of the European recession and resulting pickup in global trade bode well for the 2014 outlook. However, autumn is volatility season; a budget battle, an unfavorable mix of valuation and earnings growth and the Fed’s weakening the portfolio balance channel imply a return to normalcy.
lupoalberto66
Forumer storico
...non lo sapevo ...bella notizia
credo però che si riferisse ai commenti di gasparri, non ad un moto di popolo
insomma, una triste battaglia di bottega fra due attori di quart' ordine
lupoalberto66
Forumer storico
Una delle ipotesi che, personalmente, considero è proprio questa, a giudicare da quello che vedo sui grafici mensili di t-note e sp500...
ossia, niente o piccolo allentamento del qe, percezione di scampato pericolo dei mercati, risalita dei corsi del decennale e dell' azionario USA, spoore a 1900 o intorno, ritracciamento seguente proporzionale agli eccessi della salita (anche se non credo a sfracelli epocali, ma questo dipenderà anche da altri fattori, come dicevi giustamente parlando di europa)... il tutto entro 5-8 mesi.
Ovviamente con tutto il corollario, carry, etc
Il che, naturalmente, nell' ipotesi che la metodologia che uso non sia in errore, tutto è possibile, in tempi come questi
Ultima modifica:
