lupoalberto66
Forumer storico
Per gli amanti dell' horror-splatter, da qualche parte ho letto che stasera i sudditi italici potranno gustarsi le perle di saggezza di Barbara Berlusconi a Ballarò 
:vomito::vomito:
:vomito::vomito:
Analisi Intermarket ....quelli che.... Investire&tradare - Cap. 2
- Creatore Discussione Dogtown
- Data di Inizio
lupoalberto66
Forumer storico
buona serata a tutti 
Dogtown
Forever Ultras Ghetto
Central Bankers Fuel Uncertainly.
Former governor of the Central Bank of Israel, Stanley Fischer Associated Press
Do central bankers really know what they’re doing?
Maybe less than they think.
Take quantitative easing and forward guidance. For the past five years, central bankers have by and large been sure that at the zero lower bound, the best policy response to shore up their economies and ensure money supply didn’t collapse was to expand their balance sheets through quantitative easing–buying assets, mostly government bonds, from the market.
Balance sheets expanded enormously but economies still struggled to grow. The euro zone is just struggling out of a deep and prolonged recession. Japan has been feeble for two decades. The U.K. still hasn’t recovered to where it was before the crisis hit. And the U.S., for all its dynamism, is struggling to get back to trend growth rates.
Central bankers are starting to wonder–some publicly–whether QE has hit diminishing marginal returns. Though their dilemma is probably even more fundamental: they all seem to have different ideas about how it’s meant to work.
Some think it’s through the wealth effect, encouraging demand. But while QE has made people wealthier, most of those people were by and large very rich already and had long reached the limits of what they could even unreasonably consume. The extra money went into buying more assets.
Others think that by driving down long term risk-free interest rates, QE encouraged people to make long-term investment decisions. Except in reality QE tended to be associated with rising rather than falling long-dated bond yields.
Some think it’s the volume of past purchases that matter (the stock approach), others that it’s the size of the purchases which is the key economic driver behind QE.
None is very clear on how they’ll handle its withdrawal. Indeed, merely the prospect the Federal Reserve would pare back its latest purchase program sent markets into a swoon over the summer.
Yet at the same time, they are worried about doing too much more balance sheet expansion. For instance, on Tuesday morning European Central Bank member Ewald Nowotny warned central bank balance sheets can’t grow forever, while exiting unconventional policy measures will represent a substantial challenge.
So central banks have started to replace doing monetary policy with talking about monetary policy, also known as forward guidance.
But this too is fraught. This summer, the Bank of England introduced forward guidance, hinting heavily that interest rates would hold steady until well into 2016. The markets immediately started expecting rate hikes to start earlier, eventually getting to the point where they were anticipating a hike before the end of 2014.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s own experience with forward guidance–Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested back in the spring that the latest QE program would be trimmed from the second half of this year, while recent comments raised expectations this would start in September–resulted in market turmoil when it threatened to taper and then when it didn’t taper in spite of people’s expectations it would.
As Stanley Fischer, the former head of the Bank of Israel put it, the best guidance is the most basic. Which is, in a nutshell, the central bank’s policy remit.
Speaking about the market reaction to the Fed’s non-taper, Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason University, made a point that sums up the general state of central bank policymaking.
“I’ll say it again: none of you understand what is going on here, and neither do I. I am not seeing enough admission of this basic fact.”
Former governor of the Central Bank of Israel, Stanley Fischer Associated Press
Do central bankers really know what they’re doing?
Maybe less than they think.
Take quantitative easing and forward guidance. For the past five years, central bankers have by and large been sure that at the zero lower bound, the best policy response to shore up their economies and ensure money supply didn’t collapse was to expand their balance sheets through quantitative easing–buying assets, mostly government bonds, from the market.
Balance sheets expanded enormously but economies still struggled to grow. The euro zone is just struggling out of a deep and prolonged recession. Japan has been feeble for two decades. The U.K. still hasn’t recovered to where it was before the crisis hit. And the U.S., for all its dynamism, is struggling to get back to trend growth rates.
Central bankers are starting to wonder–some publicly–whether QE has hit diminishing marginal returns. Though their dilemma is probably even more fundamental: they all seem to have different ideas about how it’s meant to work.
Some think it’s through the wealth effect, encouraging demand. But while QE has made people wealthier, most of those people were by and large very rich already and had long reached the limits of what they could even unreasonably consume. The extra money went into buying more assets.
Others think that by driving down long term risk-free interest rates, QE encouraged people to make long-term investment decisions. Except in reality QE tended to be associated with rising rather than falling long-dated bond yields.
Some think it’s the volume of past purchases that matter (the stock approach), others that it’s the size of the purchases which is the key economic driver behind QE.
None is very clear on how they’ll handle its withdrawal. Indeed, merely the prospect the Federal Reserve would pare back its latest purchase program sent markets into a swoon over the summer.
Yet at the same time, they are worried about doing too much more balance sheet expansion. For instance, on Tuesday morning European Central Bank member Ewald Nowotny warned central bank balance sheets can’t grow forever, while exiting unconventional policy measures will represent a substantial challenge.
So central banks have started to replace doing monetary policy with talking about monetary policy, also known as forward guidance.
But this too is fraught. This summer, the Bank of England introduced forward guidance, hinting heavily that interest rates would hold steady until well into 2016. The markets immediately started expecting rate hikes to start earlier, eventually getting to the point where they were anticipating a hike before the end of 2014.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s own experience with forward guidance–Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested back in the spring that the latest QE program would be trimmed from the second half of this year, while recent comments raised expectations this would start in September–resulted in market turmoil when it threatened to taper and then when it didn’t taper in spite of people’s expectations it would.
As Stanley Fischer, the former head of the Bank of Israel put it, the best guidance is the most basic. Which is, in a nutshell, the central bank’s policy remit.
Speaking about the market reaction to the Fed’s non-taper, Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason University, made a point that sums up the general state of central bank policymaking.
“I’ll say it again: none of you understand what is going on here, and neither do I. I am not seeing enough admission of this basic fact.”
Ultima modifica:
Dogtown
Forever Ultras Ghetto
USA: INDICE MANIFATTURIERO RICHMOND FED CALA A ZERO IN SETTEMBRE
Negli Stati Uniti l'indice manifatturiero dell'area di Richmond e' calato a zero punti in settembre dai 14 di agosto. Lo ha reso noto la locale Federal Reserve. Il sottoindice sulle consegne e' sceso a -1 punti da 17, mentre sono saliti quelli sui ricavi da servizi (a 15 da 14) e sui ricavi retail (a 8 da -15).
Negli Stati Uniti l'indice manifatturiero dell'area di Richmond e' calato a zero punti in settembre dai 14 di agosto. Lo ha reso noto la locale Federal Reserve. Il sottoindice sulle consegne e' sceso a -1 punti da 17, mentre sono saliti quelli sui ricavi da servizi (a 15 da 14) e sui ricavi retail (a 8 da -15).
DANY1969
Forumer storico
non li ho visti, sai che non riesco più a guardare niente?? Ho il rigetto assoluto, in più trovo raccapricciante che la situazione che viviamo sia stata trasformata in materiale da talk-show scadenti, che ormai imperversano ogni sera su ogni canale.
Un' altra assurdità di questo paese folle e ridicolo, che assiste alla propria rovina in diretta televisiva mangiando pop-corn e urlando come allo stadio
P.S. Dog, è un discorso di carattere generale, non è assolutamente rivolto a te in particolare, ci mancherebbe altro
tutto dipende dallo spirito con cui si fa qualche cosa, personalmente non ho più neppure la forza di assistere con spirito critico, era questo che intendevo
Faccio mie le tue parole (a me vengono fuori solo parolacce 
)Ma figurati Lupo
Pure queste
Buona notte a tutti
