risparmier
Forumer storico
Kass: Leave the Bonds; Take the Equities
18 maggio 2009 - 12:08 PM EDT
As we approach the summer, a potential setup to the upside exists after the current correction runs its course.
From my perch, the proximate cause will likely be based more on supply and demand rather than a function of a variant and more positive view of emerging domestic economic growth or an improving corporate profit picture. I see the onset of a potentially meaningful asset reallocation trade (by our country's largest pension plans) out of fixed income and into equities.
Over the past 18 months, many large pension plans have moved a disproportionate amount of exposure into fixed income, owing to the outperformance vis-à-vis stocks. With bonds likely to remain under continued pressure -- the yield on the 10-year U.S. note is now comfortably above 3% and nearly 100 basis higher over the past five months -- and stocks having seemingly made an important (and perhaps) generational bottom, pension plans could become the catalyst marginal buyer that would spur stocks toward my longstanding (well, at least for two months!) 1,050 S&P 500 target by late summer.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10502419/1/kass-leave-the-bonds-take-the-equities.html
http://translate.google.com/translate_t#
18 maggio 2009 - 12:08 PM EDT
As we approach the summer, a potential setup to the upside exists after the current correction runs its course.
From my perch, the proximate cause will likely be based more on supply and demand rather than a function of a variant and more positive view of emerging domestic economic growth or an improving corporate profit picture. I see the onset of a potentially meaningful asset reallocation trade (by our country's largest pension plans) out of fixed income and into equities.
Over the past 18 months, many large pension plans have moved a disproportionate amount of exposure into fixed income, owing to the outperformance vis-à-vis stocks. With bonds likely to remain under continued pressure -- the yield on the 10-year U.S. note is now comfortably above 3% and nearly 100 basis higher over the past five months -- and stocks having seemingly made an important (and perhaps) generational bottom, pension plans could become the catalyst marginal buyer that would spur stocks toward my longstanding (well, at least for two months!) 1,050 S&P 500 target by late summer.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10502419/1/kass-leave-the-bonds-take-the-equities.html
http://translate.google.com/translate_t#
