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Trump Ukraine envoy Gen. Kellogg faces 6 stubborn knots on Day 1
From talking to Putin to acknowledging Zelensky's weaknesses, actual responsible statecraft will not be easy
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Trump Ukraine envoy Gen. Kellogg faces 6 stubborn knots on Day 1
From talking to Putin to acknowledging Zelensky's weaknesses, actual responsible statecraft will not be easy
Analysis | EuropeIan Proud
Dec 30, 2024
Responsible Statecraft involves hard choices and unpalatable compromises. General Keith Kellogg, President-elect Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, will need to confront head on a number of stubborn foreign policy obstacles as he seeks to broker peace in Ukraine in 2025.
Right now there is no strategy
Failure in Ukraine has emerged out of western disunity as the U.S., the EU, and the UK and intra-alliance interests collided on key issues such as sanctions, war aims, financial and military support. The run-up to the US Presidential elections, and its aftermath, saw repeated appeals to “Trump-proof” U.S. policy towards Ukraine.Kellogg should encourage Ukrainian and European leaders to coalesce around a single, realistic vision for Ukraine’s future. Defeating Russia is not a legitimate foreign policy goal as Ukraine will never be in a position to deliver this. The focus might include rebuilding a strong, democratic and prosperous Ukraine that attains EU membership at a determinate time.
We cannot strike a peace deal without talking to Putin
In their America First paper, Kellogg and Fred Fleitz expressed an understanding of what the Biden Administration did not — that any approach to Russia must involve both deterrence and diplomacy. As they pointed out, “Biden was not interested in working with Putin. He wanted to lecture and isolate him.”Not talking to Putin has also been an unshakeable UK foreign policy approach since 2014 and is now hardwired within the EU, with its hawkish new foreign policy chief, former Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas, ruling out direct engagement. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky has made negotiations with Russia illegal. By contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said repeatedly that he is willing to engage with President Trump and other world leaders to resolve the Ukraine crisis.
Kellogg needs to encourage European leaders to reengage with diplomacy and get on board with a more transactional approach with Russia that seeks workable solutions for all sides.
Ukraine is never going to join NATO
NATO cannot continue to hold a principled line on future Ukrainian membership that it will not underwrite with force of arms. Putin talks about the proximity of NATO rather than its size. Yes, he was forced to swallow Finnish membership, which he regarded de facto as halfway in NATO before his invasion of Ukraine.However, he has staked his political career on Ukraine never joining NATO for over 16 years, and that will never change. NATO membership should finally, irrevocably and without caveats be taken off the table as part of a deal which provides security guarantees to Ukraine. Who provides those security guarantees will require skillful negotiation, as Russia will expect guarantors to include non-NATO countries.
Kellogg’s role here is in drawing a U.S. line firmly in the sand and killing the idea, in the face of potentially heated European resistance. Ukraine will undoubtedly want to secure a quid pro quo.
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