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- Creatore Discussione impa_ro
- Data di Inizio
Jedd
GORDON GEKKO
??? Che vuoi dire non ho capito?
impa_ro
SONO qui PER imparare
out alerion (nn oggi)
out stm
out parte phisical silver e quota parte nn phisical
tengo egp
tengo palladium
tengo BACHATA
impa_ro
SONO qui PER imparare
pronto per "emergere" se l'ometto specifico si facesse sentire!!!!!
PS. qui nn parlo mai di preziosi perchè rimando al sito specifico (di Rommel) e nn parlo di ETC perchè anche di questo argomento c'è un sito tematico.....quale?? eheeh, se nn l'avete individuato....chiedete, senza timore!!!
ciao!
PS. qui nn parlo mai di preziosi perchè rimando al sito specifico (di Rommel) e nn parlo di ETC perchè anche di questo argomento c'è un sito tematico.....quale?? eheeh, se nn l'avete individuato....chiedete, senza timore!!!
ciao!
impa_ro
SONO qui PER imparare
REPORT da STD Bank
Generally speaking, all the major currencies — the dollar, euro, yen and sterling
— look unattractive. The “ugly competition” is still in full swing.
• The euro is likely to remain firm against the dollar in the short term, possibly
scaling 1.50, but we still believe that this is neither a durable rally nor a sign of general
euro strength.
• We look for the debt crisis to worsen and eventually pull euro/dollar back to
1.20. Tighter monetary policy from the Fed should also — eventually — help pull the
euro back to this sort of region.
• In China, for instance, the renminbi has been allowed a sharp move higher in the last
week. However, the non-deliverable forward market still only predicts a 2.5%
annual renminbi appreciation, which is only half of what we expect to see in the
next 12 months.
• US Treasury yields may edge higher and we continue to believe that dollar borrowers
should start thinking about locking in rates fairly soon.
• We would not be surprised to see 10-year Spanish spreads moving into a
300 bps-400 bps range even if the chances of a bailout seem to be less than 50%.
• The Bank of England is still agonising over higher rates but our inclination
here is still later rather than sooner.
• The Bank of Japan is likely to ease further, albeit through buying more assets
rather than adjusting rates — which are already close to zero.
How to play the currency markets
Generally speaking, all the major currencies — the dollar,
euro, yen and sterling — look unattractive. The “ugly competition”
is still in full swing. For the moment, the dollar and the
yen seem to be the losers, but the euro and pound are hardly
better. The best currencies lie outside the majors, and we
doubt that this situation will change soon.
The euro is likely to remain firm against the dollar in the short
term, possibly scaling 1.50, but we still believe that this is
neither a durable rally nor a sign of general euro strength.
The current rally is largely a by-product of the ECB’s preemptive
monetary tightening but the marginal effect of successive
ECB rate hikes is likely to decline over time. What’s
more, the rate hikes can’t cover up for the deep structural
flaws in the Eurozone that are manifesting themselves in the
sovereign debt crisis. We look for the debt crisis to worsen
and eventually pull euro/dollar back to 1.20. Tighter monetary
policy from the Fed should also — eventually — help pull the
euro back to this sort of region. In a similar vein, we believe
that recent euro strength against the yen and sterling is
unlikely to persist over the long haul. One immediate problem
for the euro could develop out of Sunday’s election in Finland.
For here the True Finns Party could throw a spanner in the
works of Portugal’s bailout if it wins a significant place in the
next government and follows through in its threat to block
future bailouts. Another potential problem, that has yet to be
resolved, is the lack of a government in Belgium. If this is not
resolved by June, rating agencies could take a knife to the
country’s credit rating in the same way as they have done
with a number of other Eurozone countries. Finally, the recipients
of bailouts have not seen bond yields decline and this
places a question over whether Greece and Ireland can return
to market to borrow in the future. This, in turn, raises the
probability of debt restructuring, which seems pretty high in
Greece and only slightly lower in Ireland.
All told, it leaves us sceptical of the euro’s ability to rally over
the long term. It may remain strong for a while against the
dollar, yen and sterling, but these are very weak currencies.
Indeed, a general theme that we have had over the last year
or more is that all these major currencies — including the
euro — should be weak. And while importers and exporters
might be forced to choose between these weak currencies,
those that invest in currencies should really shun all these
major currencies in favour of other G10 currencies — or
emerging market currencies. All of these major currencies still
have huge legacy problems from the credit crunch. One of
these is fiscal stress, which is clearly not just evident in the
Eurozone. Another is excessive monetary accommodation,
which is most notable in the US and UK. The ECB might be
starting out on the path to tighter monetary policy but it is a
slow process and it has also started much later than most
other central banks around the world (with the obvious exception
of the Fed, BoE and BoJ). Additionally, loose monetary
policy from this G4 group, combined with dollar weakness
and surging global reserve growth, has ensured excess liquidity
on a global scale. We think that this is best approximated
by the fact that gold prices remain very elevated indeed.
With high liquidity comes a preference on the part of
investors to seek out riskier assets. Hence, any safe-haven
properties of the dollar, the euro or the yen, count for very
little right now. This can be seen in the fact that even when
risk-damaging events occur, such as the civil war in Libya,
there’s no rush to G4 currencies. The only rush that there’s
been recently was into the yen in the immediate aftermath of
the Japanese earthquake. But even this was quickly reversed,
suggesting that the market did not have the heart for
a fight. The Bank of Japan, for instance, only spent just over
USD8bn defending the dollar in March. Last September, it
spent nearly three times as much, but to little effect. Of
course, the intervention in March was backed up by other G7
members but even the sum of the combined intervention
seemed to be pretty paltry — suggesting that the market was
in no mood to fight the central banks. The lack of fight probably
reflects the fact that the combination of very low rates,
high global liquidity and huge legacy problems from the credit
crunch makes G4 currencies very unattractive indeed.
If we have determined the worst currencies out there, what
are the best? Within the developed world, currencies the Aussie
and Kiwi seem to have been the standout currencies recently
and with excess global liquidity contributing to strong
commodity prices, we doubt that this is going to change. The
fact that neither country is likely to intervene to stem local
currency strength against the dollar is another plus factor.
The Canadian dollar falls into the same camp, and here we
are looking for a rally towards the 90 cent level against the
US dollar, with more strength against other G4 currencies as
well. The Canadian authorities are also unlikely to intervene
should the Canadian dollar approach the 90-cent level that
was last approached in November 2007. But there are plenty
of other policymakers around the world that will intervene as
the dollar weakens. However, their appetite for intervention
could be diminished by the rise in inflation that, in our view, is
a direct consequence of excessive global liquidity. In China,
for instance, the renminbi has been allowed a sharp move
higher in the last week. However, the non-deliverable forward
market still only predicts a 2.5% annual renminbi appreciation,
which is only half of what we expect to see in the next 12
months. Other central banks around the world may also allow
more local currency strength against the dollar as well, to
help ease price pressures. This should also create local currency
strength against the other G4 currencies. In fact, the
best currency trades out there, in our view, still involve buying
currencies such as the Aussie, Kiwi, Canadian dollar, and
selling a basket of G4 currencies. At the moment, this basket
would comprise the dollar and yen — but sterling and the
euro might form a part in the future.
Generally speaking, all the major currencies — the dollar, euro, yen and sterling
— look unattractive. The “ugly competition” is still in full swing.
• The euro is likely to remain firm against the dollar in the short term, possibly
scaling 1.50, but we still believe that this is neither a durable rally nor a sign of general
euro strength.
• We look for the debt crisis to worsen and eventually pull euro/dollar back to
1.20. Tighter monetary policy from the Fed should also — eventually — help pull the
euro back to this sort of region.
• In China, for instance, the renminbi has been allowed a sharp move higher in the last
week. However, the non-deliverable forward market still only predicts a 2.5%
annual renminbi appreciation, which is only half of what we expect to see in the
next 12 months.
• US Treasury yields may edge higher and we continue to believe that dollar borrowers
should start thinking about locking in rates fairly soon.
• We would not be surprised to see 10-year Spanish spreads moving into a
300 bps-400 bps range even if the chances of a bailout seem to be less than 50%.
• The Bank of England is still agonising over higher rates but our inclination
here is still later rather than sooner.
• The Bank of Japan is likely to ease further, albeit through buying more assets
rather than adjusting rates — which are already close to zero.
How to play the currency markets
Generally speaking, all the major currencies — the dollar,
euro, yen and sterling — look unattractive. The “ugly competition”
is still in full swing. For the moment, the dollar and the
yen seem to be the losers, but the euro and pound are hardly
better. The best currencies lie outside the majors, and we
doubt that this situation will change soon.
The euro is likely to remain firm against the dollar in the short
term, possibly scaling 1.50, but we still believe that this is
neither a durable rally nor a sign of general euro strength.
The current rally is largely a by-product of the ECB’s preemptive
monetary tightening but the marginal effect of successive
ECB rate hikes is likely to decline over time. What’s
more, the rate hikes can’t cover up for the deep structural
flaws in the Eurozone that are manifesting themselves in the
sovereign debt crisis. We look for the debt crisis to worsen
and eventually pull euro/dollar back to 1.20. Tighter monetary
policy from the Fed should also — eventually — help pull the
euro back to this sort of region. In a similar vein, we believe
that recent euro strength against the yen and sterling is
unlikely to persist over the long haul. One immediate problem
for the euro could develop out of Sunday’s election in Finland.
For here the True Finns Party could throw a spanner in the
works of Portugal’s bailout if it wins a significant place in the
next government and follows through in its threat to block
future bailouts. Another potential problem, that has yet to be
resolved, is the lack of a government in Belgium. If this is not
resolved by June, rating agencies could take a knife to the
country’s credit rating in the same way as they have done
with a number of other Eurozone countries. Finally, the recipients
of bailouts have not seen bond yields decline and this
places a question over whether Greece and Ireland can return
to market to borrow in the future. This, in turn, raises the
probability of debt restructuring, which seems pretty high in
Greece and only slightly lower in Ireland.
All told, it leaves us sceptical of the euro’s ability to rally over
the long term. It may remain strong for a while against the
dollar, yen and sterling, but these are very weak currencies.
Indeed, a general theme that we have had over the last year
or more is that all these major currencies — including the
euro — should be weak. And while importers and exporters
might be forced to choose between these weak currencies,
those that invest in currencies should really shun all these
major currencies in favour of other G10 currencies — or
emerging market currencies. All of these major currencies still
have huge legacy problems from the credit crunch. One of
these is fiscal stress, which is clearly not just evident in the
Eurozone. Another is excessive monetary accommodation,
which is most notable in the US and UK. The ECB might be
starting out on the path to tighter monetary policy but it is a
slow process and it has also started much later than most
other central banks around the world (with the obvious exception
of the Fed, BoE and BoJ). Additionally, loose monetary
policy from this G4 group, combined with dollar weakness
and surging global reserve growth, has ensured excess liquidity
on a global scale. We think that this is best approximated
by the fact that gold prices remain very elevated indeed.
With high liquidity comes a preference on the part of
investors to seek out riskier assets. Hence, any safe-haven
properties of the dollar, the euro or the yen, count for very
little right now. This can be seen in the fact that even when
risk-damaging events occur, such as the civil war in Libya,
there’s no rush to G4 currencies. The only rush that there’s
been recently was into the yen in the immediate aftermath of
the Japanese earthquake. But even this was quickly reversed,
suggesting that the market did not have the heart for
a fight. The Bank of Japan, for instance, only spent just over
USD8bn defending the dollar in March. Last September, it
spent nearly three times as much, but to little effect. Of
course, the intervention in March was backed up by other G7
members but even the sum of the combined intervention
seemed to be pretty paltry — suggesting that the market was
in no mood to fight the central banks. The lack of fight probably
reflects the fact that the combination of very low rates,
high global liquidity and huge legacy problems from the credit
crunch makes G4 currencies very unattractive indeed.
If we have determined the worst currencies out there, what
are the best? Within the developed world, currencies the Aussie
and Kiwi seem to have been the standout currencies recently
and with excess global liquidity contributing to strong
commodity prices, we doubt that this is going to change. The
fact that neither country is likely to intervene to stem local
currency strength against the dollar is another plus factor.
The Canadian dollar falls into the same camp, and here we
are looking for a rally towards the 90 cent level against the
US dollar, with more strength against other G4 currencies as
well. The Canadian authorities are also unlikely to intervene
should the Canadian dollar approach the 90-cent level that
was last approached in November 2007. But there are plenty
of other policymakers around the world that will intervene as
the dollar weakens. However, their appetite for intervention
could be diminished by the rise in inflation that, in our view, is
a direct consequence of excessive global liquidity. In China,
for instance, the renminbi has been allowed a sharp move
higher in the last week. However, the non-deliverable forward
market still only predicts a 2.5% annual renminbi appreciation,
which is only half of what we expect to see in the next 12
months. Other central banks around the world may also allow
more local currency strength against the dollar as well, to
help ease price pressures. This should also create local currency
strength against the other G4 currencies. In fact, the
best currency trades out there, in our view, still involve buying
currencies such as the Aussie, Kiwi, Canadian dollar, and
selling a basket of G4 currencies. At the moment, this basket
would comprise the dollar and yen — but sterling and the
euro might form a part in the future.
iulius
Forumer storico
Scusami Ro,
ho appena assistito ad uno sconvolgente duello all' ultimo sangue; ne sono
uscito come sempre intontito.
Ho ancora il cervello annebbiato. Il mio inglese è meno che scolastico.
Potresti farmi una brevissima traduzione: = long or short ?
Ciao ciao.
PS. Elfo è sparito. Cercasi Elfo disperatamente.
ho appena assistito ad uno sconvolgente duello all' ultimo sangue; ne sono
uscito come sempre intontito.
Ho ancora il cervello annebbiato. Il mio inglese è meno che scolastico.
Potresti farmi una brevissima traduzione: = long or short ?
Ciao ciao.
PS. Elfo è sparito. Cercasi Elfo disperatamente.
impa_ro
SONO qui PER imparare
.Scusami Ro,
ho appena assistito ad uno sconvolgente duello all' ultimo sangue; ne sono
uscito come sempre intontito.
Ho ancora il cervello annebbiato. Il mio inglese è meno che scolastico.
Potresti farmi una brevissima traduzione: = long or short ?
Ciao ciao.
PS. Elfo è sparito. Cercasi Elfo disperatamente.
.
CIAAAAA..O!
eh, magari fosse un codice binario on-off..!!!
Era solo per dare un quadro leggermente più generale della "ugly competition" che cmq è ancora molto fluida....infatti ...for the moment, the dollar and the yen seem to be the losers, but the euro and pound are hardly better (FOR THE MOMENT..)
Long euro fino a 1,50..poi pull
fino a 1,20...??? Già, ma tu non ti occupi mica di questa robaccia??????????