Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bond-10y-Bund : la maledizione di f4f (vm18)
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Treasuries jump on surprisingly soft inflation data
Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:03pm
By Chris Reese
NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. government debt prices climbed on Tuesday after surprisingly soft inflation data lowered expectations of any interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve in the near future.
Treasuries prices later extended gains in a flight-to-safety bid on news the Thai army had taken control of Bangkok in a coup, and the country's prime minister declared a state of emergency.
While the geopolitical news out of Asia gave bonds an extra bid, the overall stronger tone of the market was set early in the day after the government said core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, posted a surprise drop of 0.4 percent, the biggest since April 2003, on the back of sliding car prices. For details see [ID:nN18300703].
With price inflation appearing to be slowing, investors speculated on a decreased chance the Fed will be hiking rates any time soon.
"The Fed is very clearly not tightening again," said David Rosenberg, economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, adding "the only question is the timing of the easing cycle and the extent of the rate declines we can expect to see."
Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes <US10YT> were trading 17/32 higher in price as of Tuesday afternoon for a yield of 4.74 percent from 4.81 percent late on Monday.
"It is looking increasingly clear that the arguments are fairly strong against further tightening," said David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Ltd in New York, adding "I don't think (the Fed) is going to be talking about easing yet, but certainly the tightening risks are getting increasingly low.
Adding to the early bonds bid were data showing the pace of U.S. home building fell more sharply then economists had expected in August, which compounded some fears the slowdown in the homes market may be coming at an uncomfortably fast pace for the economy. [ID:nN18463595].
Traders said the coup in Thailand added to global geopolitical concerns, noting the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management began with a run on the Thai baht.
Two-year notes <US2YT> were trading 4/32 higher in price for a yield of 4.81 percent from 4.88 percent late on Monday, while five-year notes <US5YT> were trading 10/32 higher in price for a yield of 4.70 percent from 4.78 percent.
The 30-year bond <US30YT> was trading up 29/32 for a yield of 4.87 percent.
Outside of mulling the inflation data and keeping an eye on geopolitics, investors were looking forward to the Fed's policy meeting on Wednesday.
Investors widely expect the central bank will maintain a pause position in its campaign of raising interest rates at the meeting.
The Fed kept rates on hold at its August policy meeting after 17 straight increases that had taken the benchmark overnight fed funds rate to 5.25 percent.
Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:03pm
By Chris Reese
NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. government debt prices climbed on Tuesday after surprisingly soft inflation data lowered expectations of any interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve in the near future.
Treasuries prices later extended gains in a flight-to-safety bid on news the Thai army had taken control of Bangkok in a coup, and the country's prime minister declared a state of emergency.
While the geopolitical news out of Asia gave bonds an extra bid, the overall stronger tone of the market was set early in the day after the government said core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, posted a surprise drop of 0.4 percent, the biggest since April 2003, on the back of sliding car prices. For details see [ID:nN18300703].
With price inflation appearing to be slowing, investors speculated on a decreased chance the Fed will be hiking rates any time soon.
"The Fed is very clearly not tightening again," said David Rosenberg, economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, adding "the only question is the timing of the easing cycle and the extent of the rate declines we can expect to see."
Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes <US10YT> were trading 17/32 higher in price as of Tuesday afternoon for a yield of 4.74 percent from 4.81 percent late on Monday.
"It is looking increasingly clear that the arguments are fairly strong against further tightening," said David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Ltd in New York, adding "I don't think (the Fed) is going to be talking about easing yet, but certainly the tightening risks are getting increasingly low.
Adding to the early bonds bid were data showing the pace of U.S. home building fell more sharply then economists had expected in August, which compounded some fears the slowdown in the homes market may be coming at an uncomfortably fast pace for the economy. [ID:nN18463595].
Traders said the coup in Thailand added to global geopolitical concerns, noting the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management began with a run on the Thai baht.
Two-year notes <US2YT> were trading 4/32 higher in price for a yield of 4.81 percent from 4.88 percent late on Monday, while five-year notes <US5YT> were trading 10/32 higher in price for a yield of 4.70 percent from 4.78 percent.
The 30-year bond <US30YT> was trading up 29/32 for a yield of 4.87 percent.
Outside of mulling the inflation data and keeping an eye on geopolitics, investors were looking forward to the Fed's policy meeting on Wednesday.
Investors widely expect the central bank will maintain a pause position in its campaign of raising interest rates at the meeting.
The Fed kept rates on hold at its August policy meeting after 17 straight increases that had taken the benchmark overnight fed funds rate to 5.25 percent.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
gipa69 ha scritto:Ora 21:03....
YHOO: Q3 Weakness, But Maintaining Our Buy (Citigroup)
e quando gli indici ha cominciato a recuperare?
altri dieci minuti e chiudevano tutti positivi, giocherelloni
oh gipa come andiamo coi tracciati? o è ancora presto?
quicksilver
Forumer storico
gipa69 ha scritto:questo scrivevo il 13 settembre a metà giornata...
è troppo (la percentuale) e poi domani c'è la FED e non vorrei che dopo si sale per fare un massimo relativo
cioè il ragionamento è questo, se ci deve essere un inversione, un massimo di periodo che non si veda piu per qualche tempo (settimane/mesi) lo si farà come si vede fare di solito: un fine trend con inizio di discesa (e ci siamo) e poi di colpo un ultimo allungo, appena sopra i massimi recenti, magari uno spike, qualcosa insomma per fare la classica trappola per tori e fregare anche qualche shorter disiplinato con gli short
e l'occasione di domani potrebbe essere il momento, io non cerco nemmeno di immaginare se varieranno i tassi, il segnale è il tempo non il dato.
(comunque notare anche 21 settembre eclisse di sole)
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Fleursdumal ha scritto:
è presto....
o mi vuoi fuor da bal Reuters
Oracle 1st-qtr profit tops Wall Street forecasts
Tuesday September 19, 4:16 pm ET
Per il momento devono ancora convincere che sta per partire un nuovo rally....
EUR/YEN ancora oscillante sebbene il franco svizzero si stia rafforzando....
il livello da monitorare è quello detto oggi.
comunque il movimento dei bond di oggi è da comprendere.. e una delle voci stonate odierne.
Resta il fatto che oggi i volumi li hanno fatti con il mercato che scendeva....
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Quick§ilver ha scritto:
Naturalmente quelle considerazioni non escludono il tuo scenario.
Anche domenica sul thread Mercati dicevo che per me era ora di aprire short da adesso fino ad un massimo del 3% sopra i livelli attuali dello spoore in caso di ulteriore spike a testare la trendline che regge il rialzo. Tra parentesi quella riflessione è/era sull'indice italico che sembrerebbe nella fase attuale più debole degli USA e quindi una simile percentuale sul mercato italiano corrisponderebbe ad un 5/6 % sugli indici USA.. quindi comunque sopra i massimi di Giugno.
Certamente domani è una giornata importante....
Per quanto riguarda la configurazione di un top ritengo possibile che esso si possa realizzare in linea di massimi in questi tre modi che si possono in alcuni casi anche combinare fra loro...
Io ho trovato interessante seguirli in questo modo....
TYPE-1: ACCELERATION - Up or down, the important endings occur within well-established trends, rather than short-term breakouts from trading ranges, which reaffirm trends. The NASDAQ's late-1999 and early-2000 acceleration was the example of the decade. Silver's price action in March and April provides a good example in both directions. Acceleration is the least difficult trend-ending characteristic to work with, assuming one uses appropriate trailing stop tactics, because to be forewarned is to be forearmed.
TYPE-2: EXTREME REACTION AGAINST THE PREVAILING TREND - This dynamic usually follows Type-1 endings and can therefore be anticipated - what goes up in a vacuum of supply will eventually fall in a vacuum of demand, and vice versa. However the less predictable Type-2 endings are not preceded by acceleration. Instead, there is often a warning as momentum wanes, followed by a more significant warning in the form of a failed break to a new high in the case of tops, such as we saw on this chart of the Dow Jones Utilities Average in early 2001. The Type-2 extreme reaction against the prevailing uptrend was followed by several months of choppy right-hand extension, which eventually turned it into a Type-2/3 hybrid. The Utilities Average commenced its bottoming out process in mid 2002 with the Type-1 acceleration, quickly followed by the Type-2 extreme reaction, which was reversed by a fall to a new low, then another rebound and a reaction, which were all part of the eventual Type-1/2/3 base.
TYPE-3: BIG RANGING PATTERNS CHARACTERISED BY CHURNING, TIME AND SIZE - Before these big tops and bottoms become apparent, the preceding trend has given way to a choppy, whipsaw environment, as we see with the S&P 500 Index's top in 2000. The eventual bottom in 2002 shows all three characteristics, commencing with acceleration and upward dynamics, which become progressively more dramatic relative to the preceding declines within this base. The US Dollar Index shows a massive Type-3 top, which formed between late 2000 and early 2002. In this example there was no prior acceleration, but two Type-2 reactions and plenty of churning, time and size. In other words, what eventually turns out to be a large Type-3 top or bottom, inevitably starts out as a loss of trend consistency.
quicksilver
Forumer storico
Grazie, domani li leggo con calma, volevo aggiungere che magari invece domani in america si sale ancora e senza scossoni, quasi con calma (e magari stm si va finalmente a portare su 13,6/14 che secondo me stà puntando da tempo senza mai crollare) e poi alle 20:00 dicono "ma non credevate davvero si facesse sul serio?!" ... e ZAK! ....
... ma sarebbe troppo facile, ammenochè non lo facciano andando contro la logica del dato (cioè se il dato della FED è buono per il mercato scendere lo stesso)
... ma sarebbe troppo facile, ammenochè non lo facciano andando contro la logica del dato (cioè se il dato della FED è buono per il mercato scendere lo stesso)
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Quick§ilver ha scritto:Grazie, domani li leggo con calma, volevo aggiungere che magari invece domani in america si sale ancora e senza scossoni, quasi con calma (e magari stm si va finalmente a portare su 13,6/14 che secondo me stà puntando da tempo senza mai crollare) e poi alle 20:00 dicono "ma non credevate davvero si facesse sul serio?!" ... e ZAK! ....
... ma sarebbe troppo facile, ammenochè non lo facciano andando contro la logica del dato (cioè se il dato della FED è buono per il mercato scendere lo stesso)
Ecco il tuo ultimo paragrafo mi convince parecchio anche in considerazione della situazione.
Pressioni inflazionistiche in calo, utili aziendali comunque sostenuti, calo delle commodity ed infine rischio aumento tassi pressochè annullato.
Scenario che invita ad entrare pressochè chiunque... se gli investitori individuali non rispondono ora allora quando?
Andare contro le aspettative delle banche centrali sui cambi per continuare a spingere al rialzo i mercati?
In realtà l'unica reale incognita è la politica monetaria Cinese....