Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
l'indicatore umano principe ha parlato, vediamo se conferma la sua fama
il gold ha spikkato
il gold ha spikkato
Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bond,Bund,Gold: The pirates of deflinflation island (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
dan24
Forumer storico
come in un cerchio siamo tornati lì dove era nato il treddo
eravamo solo in 3 e ora siamo un mucchio di rekkie selvaggie e short di Bond
Veru però 24 contratti nun lo faccio più giuro 
masgui
Forumer storico
come in un cerchio siamo tornati lì dove era nato il treddo
eravamo solo in 3 e ora siamo un mucchio di rekkie selvaggie e short di Bond
masgui
Forumer storico
Metatarso
Forumer storico
il vero segreto del trading, alla fine, è sempre quelloMagari mi è andata solo di kiulo però non si è recchie per caso!!!
...porca l'oca il bund... e il cash non è da meno...
vabbè, stasera Tremari è costretto a fare crisis management
per quell'asino di Sacconi ieri, e quegli inqualificabili di LaRepubblica nonchè del CorriereDellaSera che per la loro miserabile lotta politica, speculano persino su un crack 
http://www.corriere.it/economia/08_...na_78afc1f2-c218-11dd-9cf5-00144f02aabc.shtml
http://borsaitaliana.it.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idITL423889420081204
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
pazzesco secondo barbon profit della giornata che sembrava essersi messa bene ma neanche nella bolla del grano salivano così facessero l'ultimo spike và
secondo barbon profit della giornata che sembrava essersi messa bene ma neanche nella bolla del grano salivano così facessero l'ultimo spike và
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
stanno scontando dei payroll teribili evabbè ma domani non ci possono essere azzi
Treasury Yield Curve Flattens as Investors Bet on Lower Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=aKwq36abq48I&refer=govt_bonds#
By Dakin Campbell and Daniel Kruger
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury two-year notes fell for the first time in seven days as traders bet longer-maturity debt will rally as the Federal Reserve considers buying Treasuries and targets interest rates to drive down borrowing costs.
The difference in yield between two- and 10-year notes narrowed for a fourth day, dropping to 1.70 percentage points, and the least since September. Yields on two-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries declined to record lows earlier today amid concern the U.S. recession is deepening.
“It’s a flattening trade,” said David Coard, head of fixed-income trading in New York at Williams Capital Group, a brokerage for institutional investors. “I’m not so sure how much of the short end of the curve can be driven down by easing.”
Two-year note yields rose two basis points to 0.90 percent, after touching 0.81 percent, the lowest since the Fed began regular sales of the notes in 1975. The price of the 1 1/4 percent note maturing in November 2010 fell 1/32, or 31 cents per $1,000 face value to 100 22/32 at 1 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data.
Ten-year note yields fell six basis points to 2.60 percent, after dropping to 2.54 percent, the lowest level since the Fed’s daily records started in 1962.
“Investors are shunning any kind of debt security unless it is U.S. gilt-edged backed,” said Kevin Flanagan, a Purchase, New York-based fixed-income strategist for Morgan Stanley’s individual-investor clients.
Treasury Bills
U.S. government debt returned 11.75 percent on average this year, the most since 13 percent in all of 2000, Merrill Lynch & Co. index data show.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed 64 percent odds the Fed will lower its 1 percent target rate by 75 basis points on Dec. 16, rising from 52 percent yesterday. The rest of the bets are for a half-a-percentage-point cut.
“The next thing you will start seeing is all the central banks talking about zero interest rate policies,” said William Bellamy, a fixed-income portfolio manager in Richmond, Virginia, at Thompson, Siegel & Walmsley, which oversees $6.8 billion. “Treasuries continue to trend lower.”
The yield on the 10-year note may fall to 2.25 percent, Bellamy said. He has been bullish on Treasuries since the 10- year yield was at four percent, he said.
The Treasury will sell $54 billion of three- and six-month bills at its weekly auction Dec. 8. Investors seeking the safest assets kept yields on three-month bills at 0.01 percent for the second straight day. It is the lowest level since the 1940s, according to monthly figures from the Fed.
‘Absolutely Horrible’
A larger-than-anticipated 4.09 million workers received U.S. government unemployment checks in the week ended Nov. 22, the most since December 1982, the Labor Department said. Initial jobless claims declined by 21,000 to 509,000 in the week that ended Nov. 29, which included the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Non-farm payrolls shrank by 330,000 in November, the most since 1982, a separate Bloomberg survey showed. The Labor Department figures are due tomorrow.
“Everyone thinks the employment data tomorrow is going to be absolutely horrible,” said Dan Orlando, head of U.S. government bond trading in New York at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., one of the 17 primary dealer that trade with the Fed. “There’s a large reluctance to be short in front of this number and all the deteriorating data that we’re seeing out there.”
Orders placed with U.S. factories in October fell by the most in eight years, dropping a more than forecast 5.1 percent, the Commerce Department said.
‘Convexity Buying’
Yields indicate banks are less willing to lend than earlier in the year. The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, widened to 218 basis points from 2008’s low of 76 basis points set in May.
The Fed’s Bernanke said the U.S. government could buy large amounts of mortgages to drive down mortgage rates that “remain high” compared to Treasuries. The difference in yield between Washington-based Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds and 10-year Treasuries fell 7 basis points.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is considering a plan to push home-loan rates down to 4.5 percent for new buyers. Yields on Fannie, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae mortgage bonds fell.
“There will be some decent convexity buying on the back of that announcement,” said Tom di Galoma, head of Treasury trading at Jefferies & Co., a brokerage for institutional investors in New York.
Paulson Plan
Paulson may use purchases of the debt to force mortgage rates down in his latest bid to revive the housing market, a government official said yesterday on condition of anonymity. Treasury yields have dropped since the Fed announced on Nov. 25 it will buy as much as $600 billion in agency and mortgage securities of government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae.
Convexity is a measure of the rate of change of a bond’s duration because of interest-rate movement. Investors holding mortgage securities often use Treasuries to guard against swings in interest rates, which can trigger changes in levels of expected mortgage refinancing and duration, a measure of price sensitivity to interest-rate change expressed as a number of years.
More than $2 trillion of mortgages have coupons at five percent or higher and would be eligible for refinancing if rates fell to 4.5 percent, meaning as much as $547 billion of Treasuries may need to be bought to match the loss in duration, according to Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products and emerging markets in New York at MF Global Inc., who cited a UBS AG report.
“This is why you continue to have strong demand for the 10-year even with ridiculously low yields,” Brenner said in an interview.
Treasury Yield Curve Flattens as Investors Bet on Lower Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=aKwq36abq48I&refer=govt_bonds#
By Dakin Campbell and Daniel Kruger
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury two-year notes fell for the first time in seven days as traders bet longer-maturity debt will rally as the Federal Reserve considers buying Treasuries and targets interest rates to drive down borrowing costs.
The difference in yield between two- and 10-year notes narrowed for a fourth day, dropping to 1.70 percentage points, and the least since September. Yields on two-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries declined to record lows earlier today amid concern the U.S. recession is deepening.
“It’s a flattening trade,” said David Coard, head of fixed-income trading in New York at Williams Capital Group, a brokerage for institutional investors. “I’m not so sure how much of the short end of the curve can be driven down by easing.”
Two-year note yields rose two basis points to 0.90 percent, after touching 0.81 percent, the lowest since the Fed began regular sales of the notes in 1975. The price of the 1 1/4 percent note maturing in November 2010 fell 1/32, or 31 cents per $1,000 face value to 100 22/32 at 1 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data.
Ten-year note yields fell six basis points to 2.60 percent, after dropping to 2.54 percent, the lowest level since the Fed’s daily records started in 1962.
“Investors are shunning any kind of debt security unless it is U.S. gilt-edged backed,” said Kevin Flanagan, a Purchase, New York-based fixed-income strategist for Morgan Stanley’s individual-investor clients.
Treasury Bills
U.S. government debt returned 11.75 percent on average this year, the most since 13 percent in all of 2000, Merrill Lynch & Co. index data show.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed 64 percent odds the Fed will lower its 1 percent target rate by 75 basis points on Dec. 16, rising from 52 percent yesterday. The rest of the bets are for a half-a-percentage-point cut.
“The next thing you will start seeing is all the central banks talking about zero interest rate policies,” said William Bellamy, a fixed-income portfolio manager in Richmond, Virginia, at Thompson, Siegel & Walmsley, which oversees $6.8 billion. “Treasuries continue to trend lower.”
The yield on the 10-year note may fall to 2.25 percent, Bellamy said. He has been bullish on Treasuries since the 10- year yield was at four percent, he said.
The Treasury will sell $54 billion of three- and six-month bills at its weekly auction Dec. 8. Investors seeking the safest assets kept yields on three-month bills at 0.01 percent for the second straight day. It is the lowest level since the 1940s, according to monthly figures from the Fed.
‘Absolutely Horrible’
A larger-than-anticipated 4.09 million workers received U.S. government unemployment checks in the week ended Nov. 22, the most since December 1982, the Labor Department said. Initial jobless claims declined by 21,000 to 509,000 in the week that ended Nov. 29, which included the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Non-farm payrolls shrank by 330,000 in November, the most since 1982, a separate Bloomberg survey showed. The Labor Department figures are due tomorrow.
“Everyone thinks the employment data tomorrow is going to be absolutely horrible,” said Dan Orlando, head of U.S. government bond trading in New York at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., one of the 17 primary dealer that trade with the Fed. “There’s a large reluctance to be short in front of this number and all the deteriorating data that we’re seeing out there.”
Orders placed with U.S. factories in October fell by the most in eight years, dropping a more than forecast 5.1 percent, the Commerce Department said.
‘Convexity Buying’
Yields indicate banks are less willing to lend than earlier in the year. The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, widened to 218 basis points from 2008’s low of 76 basis points set in May.
The Fed’s Bernanke said the U.S. government could buy large amounts of mortgages to drive down mortgage rates that “remain high” compared to Treasuries. The difference in yield between Washington-based Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds and 10-year Treasuries fell 7 basis points.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is considering a plan to push home-loan rates down to 4.5 percent for new buyers. Yields on Fannie, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae mortgage bonds fell.
“There will be some decent convexity buying on the back of that announcement,” said Tom di Galoma, head of Treasury trading at Jefferies & Co., a brokerage for institutional investors in New York.
Paulson Plan
Paulson may use purchases of the debt to force mortgage rates down in his latest bid to revive the housing market, a government official said yesterday on condition of anonymity. Treasury yields have dropped since the Fed announced on Nov. 25 it will buy as much as $600 billion in agency and mortgage securities of government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae.
Convexity is a measure of the rate of change of a bond’s duration because of interest-rate movement. Investors holding mortgage securities often use Treasuries to guard against swings in interest rates, which can trigger changes in levels of expected mortgage refinancing and duration, a measure of price sensitivity to interest-rate change expressed as a number of years.
More than $2 trillion of mortgages have coupons at five percent or higher and would be eligible for refinancing if rates fell to 4.5 percent, meaning as much as $547 billion of Treasuries may need to be bought to match the loss in duration, according to Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products and emerging markets in New York at MF Global Inc., who cited a UBS AG report.
“This is why you continue to have strong demand for the 10-year even with ridiculously low yields,” Brenner said in an interview.
ditropan
Forumer storico
sera
... per ora io resisto e non faccio parte della banda.
Tuttavia ho cominciato una prima campagna acquisti su petrolio 45,5 e 43,8 ... poca roba, prima voglio vedere delle reazioni.
... sui bond c'è poco da fare ...finchè non vedo t-bond a 135-137 non tocco una mazza ... ragazzi quà si stà pensando a deflazione, ed mp confermano ... stai poco a vedere t-bond a 140. ... e non stò scherzando.
... cioè ... questa sera siamo a 133,6 sul t-bronx scadenza marzo ... metti che domani dati su occupazione fanno schi.fo ... il t-bond lo vediamo 137 in un'amen ... adesso sul bronx fare +3% è diventata la regola ... occhio ai margini tra l'altro per chi usa il futures ... tranquilli che prima di venire giù aumenteranno di molto i margini overnight.
come in un cerchio siamo tornati lì dove era nato il treddo
eravamo solo in 3 e ora siamo un mucchio di rekkie selvaggie e short di Bond
... per ora io resisto e non faccio parte della banda.
Tuttavia ho cominciato una prima campagna acquisti su petrolio 45,5 e 43,8 ... poca roba, prima voglio vedere delle reazioni.
... sui bond c'è poco da fare ...finchè non vedo t-bond a 135-137 non tocco una mazza ... ragazzi quà si stà pensando a deflazione, ed mp confermano ... stai poco a vedere t-bond a 140.
... e non stò scherzando.... cioè ... questa sera siamo a 133,6 sul t-bronx scadenza marzo ... metti che domani dati su occupazione fanno schi.fo ... il t-bond lo vediamo 137 in un'amen ... adesso sul bronx fare +3% è diventata la regola ... occhio ai margini tra l'altro per chi usa il futures ... tranquilli che prima di venire giù aumenteranno di molto i margini overnight.
giomf
Forumer storico
Nei periodi di deflazione . . quale asset class ha probabilità di andar bene .... ?
Quale settore si può salvare ... ? Quale cosa può dare degli up--trend ... ?
.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
quei target ci possono stare benissimo vecio ma arrivarci un pugno di sedute è follia quando i jap ci hanno messo anni
stanno messi talmente alla pezza che stanno manipolando mp e bonds, botte piena e moglie ubriaka , si paga un kaiser l'energia e si danno rendimenti ridicoli ai forzati dei bonds ora che arriveranno tonnellate di carta per sostenere i megadebiti statali
stanno messi talmente alla pezza che stanno manipolando mp e bonds, botte piena e moglie ubriaka , si paga un kaiser l'energia e si danno rendimenti ridicoli ai forzati dei bonds ora che arriveranno tonnellate di carta per sostenere i megadebiti statali