Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bronx5Y-10Y-Bund .. il ritorno del figliol prodigo (vm18)

[quicksilver]

NEW INDICATOR
per la ricerca di nuovi indicatori originali, vi propongo il seguente:
esiste una correlazione quasi perfetta tra gli strappi in sù del mercato e i momenti in cui mi DEVO assentare
quindi, io vi avverto quando mi squilla il telefono e devo cmq spegnere il PC, e voi mi date na ( piccola) parte degli stratosferici guadagni che potrete fare mettendovi semplicemente long

chi ci sta ?

Ma oggi è venerdi 13.... come fai a stare qui tranquillo a postare?

 

[gipa69]

Ma oggi è venerdi 13.... come fai a stare qui tranquillo a postare?

 

[gipa69]

INDICATIONS
U.S. steady as GE hits forecasts; retail data awaited
By Simon Kennedy, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:20 AM ET Oct 13, 2006


LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures held steady Friday after industrial bellwether General Electric reported third-quarter results in line with market forecasts and investors awaited key retail-sales data, with Yahoo also in focus after a broker downgrade.
GE (GE : General Electric Company
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 36.22+0.05+0.14%
GE36.22, +0.05, +0.1%) said third-quarter net income rose 6%, matching forecasts, and sales increased 12%. The diversified manufacturer credited the growth to stronger industrial sales and financial-services revenue. See full story.
S&P 500 futures dipped 0.50 points at 1,370.20 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.50 points at 1,733.25. Dow industrial futures slipped 3 points at 12,003.
U.S. stocks rallied Thursday on stronger-than-expected earnings from McDonald's Corp. (MCD : McDonald's Corporation
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 42.23+0.98+2.38%
MCD42.23, +0.98, +2.4%) among others and a favorable Federal Reserve Beige Book survey, which showed few signs of increased price pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 95.57 points at a record 11,947.70.
Data will again be in focus Friday with the release of the September retail-sales report. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect retail sales growth of 0.1%, down from 0.2%, largely due to a sharp fall in retail gasoline prices.
Also set for release Friday are the September import-price index and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for October.
The dollar held steady against the euro and the Japanese yen.
Crude-oil prices broke back through $58 a barrel after data on Thursday showed U.S. distillate inventories had fallen for the first time in nine weeks. The November light crude contract was recently up 40 cents to $58.26 a barrel in electronic trading.
Home builder Centex Corp. (CTX : Centex Corporation
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 55.09+1.10+2.04%
CTX55.09, +1.10, +2.0%) said late Thursday that it sees second-quarter earnings from continuing operations of 65 cents to 75 cents a share, compared with its July view of $1.40. It said net sales tumbled 28% from last year
Among broker calls, Yahoo Inc. (YHOO : Yahoo! Inc.
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 24.12-0.12-0.50%
YHOO24.12, -0.12, -0.5%) was cut to peer perform from outperform at Thomas Weisel. While it believes Yahoo as a business has a "terrific" future, it thinks the company may have a difficult time achieving medium-term consensus earnings expectations.
Wachovia Securities upgraded Time Warner Telecom, Inc. (TWTC : time warner telecom inc cl a
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 19.60+0.46+2.40%
TWTC19.60, +0.46, +2.4%) to outperform from market perform, citing potential upside from the Xspedius acquisition and its belief that the enterprise market is firming.
La-Z-Boy (LZB : La-Z-Boy Incorporated
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 15.00-0.05-0.33%
LZB15.00, -0.05, -0.3%) after Thursday's close cut its fiscal second-quarter earnings forecast to a range of a penny to 4 cents a share from its previous view of 11 cents to 15 cents a share because of weaker sales.
Pawnshop operator EZCorp (EZPW : EZCORP Inc Cl A Non-Vtg
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 36.35+1.43+4.10%
EZPW36.35, +1.43, +4.1%) raised its fourth-quarter earnings forecast to a range of 61 cents to 64 cents a share. EZ Corp. previously forecast earnings of 43 cents to 46 cents a share. Additionally, it sees 2006 per-share earnings of $2.05 to $2.08 and 2007 per-share earnings of $2.40 to $2.45, ahead of Wall Street's view.
Also late Thursday Aetna (AET : aetna inc new com
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 40.22+0.27+0.68%
AET40.22, +0.27, +0.7%) said it will lay off 650 staff, or about 2% of its total workforce, in a move to cut administrative costs.

 

[gipa69]

AP
Retail Sales Fall 0.4 Percent in Sept.
Friday October 13, 8:34 am ET
Retail Sales Fall 0.4 Percent in September, Reflecting Decline in Gas Prices


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell by 0.4 percent in September although the weakness primarily reflected a big drop in gasoline prices.

 

[f4f]

vi son più cose in cielo ed in terra, Orazio, che nella tua filosofia ....


ad esempio:

1 NON sono tranquillo
2 scrivo con la sinistra, la destra è saldamente a conttatto con i c....i : always remember the old Latin goes: '' testicula tacta, omnia pericula fugata ''

 

[gipa69]

Reuters
Retail sales in Sept down on gasoline dip
Friday October 13, 8:28 am ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Retail sales fell unexpectedly in September on a record drop in gasoline sales, but were up when gasoline sales were stripped out, a government report said on Friday.
Retail sales fell 0.4 percent in the month, the Commerce Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a 0.2 percent rise.

However, a big drop in gasoline prices in September was reflected in a 9.3 percent tumble in sales at gasoline stations, the largest decline on record, the government said.

Excluding gasoline sales, retail sales rose 0.6 percent.

Auto and parts sales were unchanged in September. U.S. consumers pared their spending by 0.5 percent in September excluding automotive purchases, the report said.

Analysts were expecting flat sales when autos and parts were stripped out.

Gas prices fell from about $3.00 in early August to $2.50 early September, economists from FTN Financial said this week.

Many of August's sales increases were revised lower. Overall retail sales rose 0.1 percent instead of the previously reported 0.2 percent rise. Auto sales were revised to a drop of 0.4 percent from a 0.4 percent gain.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Bonjour a tout les bondaroles

sempre a mezzo servizio e visto che i bonds stanno andando in automatico mi sto occupando dei grains nei ritagli di efficienza del mio pc

ierisera credeva di aver individuato il colpevole: ero partito dall'ultimo problema che aveva investito nientemeno che firefox, una finestrella che mi avvertiva di problema di plugin con shockwawe ed ero arrivato agli ultimi mostri virali : gromozon e i linkoptimizer , problema risolto con firefox ma quei virus non li ho trovati sul pc, nonostante uno dei sintomi ( creazione utente con nome random ) li avessi riscontrati

 

[gipa69]

I cross continuano ad essere supportivi ai mercati...Yen in debolezza contro dollaro e Franco Svizzero contro Euro.....

 

[masgui]

I cross continuano ad essere supportivi ai mercati...Yen in debolezza contro dollaro e Franco Svizzero contro Euro.....

Scusate ma non colgo il nesso tra dati Usa sulle vendite al dettaglio e l'andamento del Bund..non capisco la reazione. Cè?

 

[gipa69]

Scusate ma non colgo il nesso tra dati Usa sulle vendite al dettaglio e l'andamento del Bund..non capisco la reazione. Cè?

Questa è più complesso...

Tenuto conto che la news è stata letta così....

The dollar initially dipped after the report showed that overall U.S. retail sales fell 0.4 percent in September, flying against forecasts for a modest rise.

"However, the currency quickly reversed course and headed higher as traders latched on to the fact that the main reason for the weak overall figure was a drop in gasoline prices. Strength in other categories of the report helped reinforce a view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates any time soon."

Il mercato pensa che i tagli che la curva dei tassi scontava (almeno un paio all'inizio del 2007) fossero esagerati ed ora va a scontare una minore pressione al ribasso sui tassi in quanto la discesa delle vendite è da imputare principalmente alla discesa del prezzo della benzina (e anche al calo di vendite di auto.....) mentre i restanti settori erano forti.

No taglio= dollaro più forte e curva dei tassi più alta

Personalmente penso che questi movimenti siano giustificati anche da una certa fuoriuscita dai bond e riposizionamento sull'azionario dopo una fase di prudenza operativa cha ha portato a sovrappesare su diversi portafogli l'obbligazionario (vedi i commenti degli utlimi mesi di Pimco e similia).