Come oramai è diversi giorni (da martedì per l'esattezza) che succede la leggera distribuzione effettuata all'inizio della giornata da parte dei pesci più grossi per scaricare le posizioni carry viene riassorbita dai flussi in entrata degli individuali nelle ultime ore della seduta (in particolare dopo le sei di sera italiane).
Oggi in realtà c'è stato un riutilizzo del carry per sorreggere l'indice intorno all'importante area di supporto tra i 1360 e i 1365 per confermare il solito consolidamento alto.
D'altra parte che ci sia un fenomeno finanziario che sostiene la debolezza dello yen viene confermato anche dalle notizie macro in realtà supportive per la valuta nipponica ma che vengono riassorbite con estrema naturalezza dal cross segno che al momento tutti i trend di debolezza dello yen persistono (mercantilismo, convenienza di investimento, carry).
Questa notizia di qualche giorno fa parlava di diversificazione valutaria della Russia a favore dello yen ma è praticamente passata sotto silenzio....
, lo yen si è leggermente rafforzato contro dollaro ma si è contemporanemanete riindebolito contro euro. (la chiusura dei carry porterebbe ad un suo generale rafforzamento)
Russia diversification talk hurts dollar, boosts yen
Persian Gulf States to meet in Nov. to discuss possible end to dollar peg
By Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:42 PM ET Oct 16, 2006
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The Bank of Russia's decision to increase the yen's weighting in its currency reserves is just another signal of central banks' waning interest in the U.S. dollar, analysts said Monday.
The move may lead to significant appreciation of the Japanese currency, they said.
Alexei Ulyukayev, Russia's first deputy central bank chairman, said that the bank had started buying yen and intends to raise the proportion of yen to several percent of total reserves from close to zero percent at present. Ulyukayev suggested that the bank may buy other currencies too, but said the bulk of the reserve reallocation will be executed in 2007.
Overall, the news "continues to paint a long-term picture of underlying structural weakness in the dollar," said Brian Dolan, director of research at Forex.com, a division of Gain Capital.
However, this "could well be the beginning of the turning point of the rebound in the yen," he said. "It can lead to significant appreciation of the yen, without a doubt."
The comments by Ulyukayev come after Russia's central bank said in late May that it would diversify its $71.5 billion Oil Stabilization Fund into a mix of 45% dollars, 45% euros and 10% British pounds.
The bank said that as of October 6, Russia's international reserves stood at $267.9 billion -- the world's third largest. The Oil Stabilization Fund (OSF) holds about $71 billion worth of assets.
The exact composition of the country's international reserves is not available, but some analysts estimate that Russia holds 40% to 45% of its reserves in euros, 45% to 50% in dollars and about 10% in British pounds.
Lars Rasmussen, a senior analyst at Danske Bank, said Russia's central bank could be sending a signal that in the longer term, it wants to include yen to reflect the composition of Russia's trading partners.
"Asia buys roughly 10% of Russia's exports, and buying yen would be the easiest way to reflect exposure to Asian currencies," Rasmussen said. In contrast, the U.S. buys just 3%. The euro zone buys 55%.
Rasmussen expects the Russian central bank to consider further reducing the share of dollars in its reserves, putting more weight on euros and gradually including the yen in the currency basket.
Should the central bank increase the share of yen to 10% of reserves, it would boost it considerably. "Russia would then be looking to buy $35 billion worth of yen," he said.
Hans Redeker, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at BNP Paribas, agreed, saying that from an international trade relationship perspective, "the yen is drastically under-represented in global currency reserves."
"Australia, China, and the Asian tiger economies need to increase their weighting of the yen in reserves. The reason why they have not yet...is due to the dismal return yen assets offer," Redeker said, in a note to clients. "But with yen yields gradually increasing over the next few years, the yen will see its currency reserve importance increasing."
The diversification efforts by central banks worldwide will continue to weigh on the U.S. currency in the years ahead, Dolan said.
Sweden's Riksbank, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar Central Bank all announced intentions early this year to diversify their reserves away from dollars. Officials in Beijing have also repeatedly hinted that China might gradually reduce its purchases of dollar-denominated bonds and diversify its reserves as a hedge against further dollar weakness.
Persian Gulf States have decided to meet on Nov. 4 to discuss potential monetary union and possibly an end to the dollar peg, according to Dolan.
The meeting "suggests another major shift among central banks away from the U.S. dollar and this may weigh on the buck and favor the euro and pound in the process," he said.
Dolan expects the proportion of dollar holdings in central banks' foreign-exchange reserves to decline to the range of 60 to 70%.
However, the U.S. currency will maintain its place as the dominant reserve currency, he said.
"We are still the largest economy in the world by far. The amount of trade conducted in dollars still keeps it as the most desirable and demanded currency," he said.
Wanfeng Zhou is a markets reporter in New York.
sono apparse le prime occhiaie?
