TBOND-BUND-EUROSTOX-FIBMERD fine del capitalismo(V.M.98anni)
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Rottura dell'area 1389 dove passava la trendline rotta ieri e nuovo spunto rialzista fino all'area 1400 come indicato da Fleu ieri.
Comportamento da manuale.
Ora consolidamento alto..... per attirare gli small.....
carry a sostegno del movimento......
Neanche la correzione del dollaro sembra sortire gli effetti desiderati in quanto i carry si spostano con abilità....
Comportamento da manuale.
Ora consolidamento alto..... per attirare gli small.....
carry a sostegno del movimento......
Neanche la correzione del dollaro sembra sortire gli effetti desiderati in quanto i carry si spostano con abilità....
quicksilver
Forumer storico
Le tre foto iniziali sono sempre per confondere Echelon vero? 
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
Re: TBOND-BUND-EUROSTOX-FIBMERD-TITOLI-la fine del capitalis
Bravo Dan
.....hai trovato un eccellente supporto per quel triplo minimo !!
da là puo' solo che prendere una direzione
dan24 ha scritto:
Bravo Dan
.....hai trovato un eccellente supporto per quel triplo minimo !!
da là puo' solo che prendere una direzione
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Re: TBOND-BUND-EUROSTOX-FIBMERD-TITOLI-la fine del capitalis
Fernando'S ha scritto:Bravo Dan
.....hai trovato un eccellente supporto per quel triplo minimo !!
da là puo' solo che prendere una direzione
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1164835898triplo.jpg
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Special Report
Blow Offs and Blow Downs in the U.S. Equity Market
Blow offs in the U.S. equity market are rare, but wonderful events for investors holding U.S. equity securities, Exchange Traded Funds and mutual funds. Significant gains are recorded in a relatively short period of time.
Unfortunately, blow offs are followed by “blow downs” where gains realized during the “blow offs” quickly are lost. Indeed, when blow offs occur at the end of an
economic cycle, the “blow downs” frequently take equity indices to below levels where the “blow off” started.
Blow offs are characterized by a period of 2-4 months when broadly based equity indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index move sharply higher with little or no correction. Ten “blow offs” have been identified during the past 34 years. Average gain per period was 13.2%. Stocks in an uptrend exceed stocks in a downtrend by four times or more. Sector participation is widespread. Sentiment indicators are bullish. Economic and earnings news prior to a blow off are encouraging and tend to improve during the 2-4 month period.
Identifying the top of a blow off is virtually impossible. “Blow offs” take the market to unexpected levels on the upside. Guessing when the top has occurred can be hazardous to your financial health. Technical indicators (e.g. breaking of trend lines, roll-overs by RSI, MACD, Stochastics, etc.) are useful only after the peak has occurred.
The “blow down” phase is to be avoided at all cost. Average loss per period after the past 10 blow offs has been 18.4%. Blow downs occur 2-6 months following blow offs.
Blow downs are characterized by declining investor sentiment, technical weakness in broadly based equity indices, a fall in the ratio of stocks in an uptrend versus a downtrend and reductions in economic and earnings estimates offered by analysts.
Following is data for the past 10 blow offs and blow downs showing dates, levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and their performance.
Blow Offs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the past 34 years
Bottom date DJIA Top date DJIA Percent Change
Oct. 16, 1972 922 Jan.11, 1973 1,052 14.1
July 5, 1978 806 Sept. 8, 1978 908 12.7
Feb.13, 1981 932 Apr.27, 1981 1,024 9.9
Aug. 8, 1983 1,163 Nov.29, 1983 1,287 10.7
May 20, 1987 2,215 Aug.25, 1987 2,722 22.9
Apr. 27, 1990 2,645 July 16, 1990 3,000 13.4
Nov. 4, 1993 3,624 Jan. 31, 1994 3,978 9.8
Mar. 5, 1998 8,444 July 17, 1998 10,635 10.6
Oct. 15, 1999 10,020 Jan.14, 2000 11,723 17.0
Jan. 28, 2002 9,618 Mar.19, 2002 10,635 10.6
Average 13.2
Blow Downs following Blow Offs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the past 34 years
Top date DJIA Bottom date DJIA Percent Decline
July11, 1973 1,052 May 21, 1973 886 15.8
Sept. 8, 1978 908 Nov. 14, 1978 785 13.5
Apr. 27, 1981 1,024 Sept. 25, 1981 824 19.5
Nov. 29, 1983 1,287 Feb. 22, 1984 1,134 11.9
Aug. 25, 1987 2,722 Oct. 19, 1987 1,739 36.1
July 16, 1990 3,000 Oct. 12, 1990 2,398 20.1
Jan. 31, 1994 3,978 Apr. 20, 1994 3,599 9.5
July 17, 1998 9,338 Sept. 10,1998 7,616 19.4
Jan.14, 2000 11,723 Mar. 7, 2000 9,796 16.4
Mar. 19, 2002 10,635 Oct. 9, 2002 7,286 21.5
Average 18.4
Question: Have broadly based U.S. equity indices recently experienced a “blow off”?
Evidence of a blow off is convincing:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index recorded exceptional, non-stop gains from July 14th to November 22nd. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 15.5% and the S&P 500 Index gained 14.6%.
Sentiment indicators for U.S. equity markets have improved steadily since August. Bullish Advisors rose to 58.5% last week. In addition, the Volatility Index (i.e. VIX) reached a multi-year low last week, a sign that investor are satisfied with their current equity holdings.
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend versus a downtrend reached a new intermediate cycle high at 4.62 on Friday.
Economic and earnings news has been surprisingly positive during the past three months. Third quarter earnings reports exceeded consensus expectations and economists briefly raised projections when energy costs came down.
Was the downdraft recorded yesterday the start of the next “blow down”? Probably! As usual in these cases, we would like to see more technical evidence. However, technical action yesterday provided solid preliminary evidence that intermediate peaks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index have been reached:
Uptrends for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index have been broken. Ditto for selected international indices such as the German DAX Index and the French CAC Index. Both have broken below rising wedge patterns. An uptrend for the Nikkei Index previously had been broken.
Individual stocks in the S&P 500 have started to break support and establish neutral or downward trends. As noted above, only one S&P 500 stock broke resistance yesterday while 23 stocks broke support. The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend fell yesterday from 4.62 to (346/91=) 3.80. Breakdowns by individual S&P 500 stocks were notable in sectors that have underperformed the S&P 500 Index during the past four weeks: Staples, Health Care, Telecom and Utilities.
Bullish Percent Index for broadly based indices and all S&P 500 sectors are overbought. Some already have rolled over (e.g. Health care, Telecom, Utilities).
Other evidence includes the following:
Bullish Advisors data, a measure of bullish sentiment by investment newsletter writers has reached a level of excessive bullishness. Historically, a stock market correction has started shortly after this indicator has approached the 60% level and rolled over.
Complacency shown by the multi-year low for VIX last week shows that investors generally were bullish and are not expecting a correction in the short term. A sharp increase in VIX yesterday, that broke a downtrend, indicates dissipation of complacency.
Bearish sentiment rose sharply yesterday as displayed by a rise in volume by the double inverse S&P 500 ETF (Symbol: SDS).
Analyst estimates for sales, cash flow and earnings by major companies in 2007 are declining, but remain high if the U.S. economy slows in 2007.
Energy costs have stopped going down. Indeed, natural gas, heating oil and unleaded gasoline have established uptrends during the past month and crude oil closed above $60 U.S. per barrel yesterday.
Uncertainties related to the recent decline in the U.S. Dollar and possible actions by the new Congress are increasing.
In conclusion, U.S. equity markets have passed the Peaking phase and have entered the Distribution phase.
For U.S. equities, ETFs and mutual funds, caveat emptor!
The stock market normally progresses through eight phases during an intermediate cycle lasting (on average) a year. The range of time for a full cycle is 5 –15 months. Total number of cycles during the past 19 years: 19. Identifying which phase the market currently stands will help the investor to determine risk/reward parameters.
The eight phases are intuitive, but they can be measured and determined with a mechanical model. The eight phases are:
Bottoming
Base Building
Breakout
Mark Up
Peaking
Distribution
Breakdown
Markdown
The mechanical model primarily looks at the ratio of stocks in a broadly base index (e.g. S&P 500, TSX Composite) that are in an uptrend versus a downtrend (i.e. the up/down ratio).
The Bottoming Phase frequently occurs when the up/down ratio is between 1/3 and 1/2 (i.e. between 0.33 and 0.50). A Bottoming phase was identified in mid March, 2003 when the up/down ratio bottomed at 0.28 for the S&P 500 and 0.54 for the TSX Composite. The most recent Bottoming phase occurred in mid May 2004 when the up/down ratio for the TSX fell to 0.60 and up/down ratio for the S&P 500 fell to 0.72. Occasionally, extremes are reached. For example, the up/down ratio fell below 0.10 for the S&P 500 in July 2002 before turning higher.
The Peaking Phase frequently occurs when the up/down ratio is between 2/1 and 3/1 (i.e. between 2.00 and 3.00). Occasionally, extremes are reached. For example, the up/down ratio rose to 7.75 for the S&P 500 and 4.22 for the TSX Composite in the first week in March 2004 before turning lower.
Following is a graphic description of the eight phases originally published in the International Federation of Technical Analysts Journal.
Blow Offs and Blow Downs in the U.S. Equity Market
Blow offs in the U.S. equity market are rare, but wonderful events for investors holding U.S. equity securities, Exchange Traded Funds and mutual funds. Significant gains are recorded in a relatively short period of time.
Unfortunately, blow offs are followed by “blow downs” where gains realized during the “blow offs” quickly are lost. Indeed, when blow offs occur at the end of an
economic cycle, the “blow downs” frequently take equity indices to below levels where the “blow off” started.
Blow offs are characterized by a period of 2-4 months when broadly based equity indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index move sharply higher with little or no correction. Ten “blow offs” have been identified during the past 34 years. Average gain per period was 13.2%. Stocks in an uptrend exceed stocks in a downtrend by four times or more. Sector participation is widespread. Sentiment indicators are bullish. Economic and earnings news prior to a blow off are encouraging and tend to improve during the 2-4 month period.
Identifying the top of a blow off is virtually impossible. “Blow offs” take the market to unexpected levels on the upside. Guessing when the top has occurred can be hazardous to your financial health. Technical indicators (e.g. breaking of trend lines, roll-overs by RSI, MACD, Stochastics, etc.) are useful only after the peak has occurred.
The “blow down” phase is to be avoided at all cost. Average loss per period after the past 10 blow offs has been 18.4%. Blow downs occur 2-6 months following blow offs.
Blow downs are characterized by declining investor sentiment, technical weakness in broadly based equity indices, a fall in the ratio of stocks in an uptrend versus a downtrend and reductions in economic and earnings estimates offered by analysts.
Following is data for the past 10 blow offs and blow downs showing dates, levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and their performance.
Blow Offs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the past 34 years
Bottom date DJIA Top date DJIA Percent Change
Oct. 16, 1972 922 Jan.11, 1973 1,052 14.1
July 5, 1978 806 Sept. 8, 1978 908 12.7
Feb.13, 1981 932 Apr.27, 1981 1,024 9.9
Aug. 8, 1983 1,163 Nov.29, 1983 1,287 10.7
May 20, 1987 2,215 Aug.25, 1987 2,722 22.9
Apr. 27, 1990 2,645 July 16, 1990 3,000 13.4
Nov. 4, 1993 3,624 Jan. 31, 1994 3,978 9.8
Mar. 5, 1998 8,444 July 17, 1998 10,635 10.6
Oct. 15, 1999 10,020 Jan.14, 2000 11,723 17.0
Jan. 28, 2002 9,618 Mar.19, 2002 10,635 10.6
Average 13.2
Blow Downs following Blow Offs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the past 34 years
Top date DJIA Bottom date DJIA Percent Decline
July11, 1973 1,052 May 21, 1973 886 15.8
Sept. 8, 1978 908 Nov. 14, 1978 785 13.5
Apr. 27, 1981 1,024 Sept. 25, 1981 824 19.5
Nov. 29, 1983 1,287 Feb. 22, 1984 1,134 11.9
Aug. 25, 1987 2,722 Oct. 19, 1987 1,739 36.1
July 16, 1990 3,000 Oct. 12, 1990 2,398 20.1
Jan. 31, 1994 3,978 Apr. 20, 1994 3,599 9.5
July 17, 1998 9,338 Sept. 10,1998 7,616 19.4
Jan.14, 2000 11,723 Mar. 7, 2000 9,796 16.4
Mar. 19, 2002 10,635 Oct. 9, 2002 7,286 21.5
Average 18.4
Question: Have broadly based U.S. equity indices recently experienced a “blow off”?
Evidence of a blow off is convincing:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index recorded exceptional, non-stop gains from July 14th to November 22nd. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 15.5% and the S&P 500 Index gained 14.6%.
Sentiment indicators for U.S. equity markets have improved steadily since August. Bullish Advisors rose to 58.5% last week. In addition, the Volatility Index (i.e. VIX) reached a multi-year low last week, a sign that investor are satisfied with their current equity holdings.
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend versus a downtrend reached a new intermediate cycle high at 4.62 on Friday.
Economic and earnings news has been surprisingly positive during the past three months. Third quarter earnings reports exceeded consensus expectations and economists briefly raised projections when energy costs came down.
Was the downdraft recorded yesterday the start of the next “blow down”? Probably! As usual in these cases, we would like to see more technical evidence. However, technical action yesterday provided solid preliminary evidence that intermediate peaks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index have been reached:
Uptrends for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index have been broken. Ditto for selected international indices such as the German DAX Index and the French CAC Index. Both have broken below rising wedge patterns. An uptrend for the Nikkei Index previously had been broken.
Individual stocks in the S&P 500 have started to break support and establish neutral or downward trends. As noted above, only one S&P 500 stock broke resistance yesterday while 23 stocks broke support. The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend fell yesterday from 4.62 to (346/91=) 3.80. Breakdowns by individual S&P 500 stocks were notable in sectors that have underperformed the S&P 500 Index during the past four weeks: Staples, Health Care, Telecom and Utilities.
Bullish Percent Index for broadly based indices and all S&P 500 sectors are overbought. Some already have rolled over (e.g. Health care, Telecom, Utilities).
Other evidence includes the following:
Bullish Advisors data, a measure of bullish sentiment by investment newsletter writers has reached a level of excessive bullishness. Historically, a stock market correction has started shortly after this indicator has approached the 60% level and rolled over.
Complacency shown by the multi-year low for VIX last week shows that investors generally were bullish and are not expecting a correction in the short term. A sharp increase in VIX yesterday, that broke a downtrend, indicates dissipation of complacency.
Bearish sentiment rose sharply yesterday as displayed by a rise in volume by the double inverse S&P 500 ETF (Symbol: SDS).
Analyst estimates for sales, cash flow and earnings by major companies in 2007 are declining, but remain high if the U.S. economy slows in 2007.
Energy costs have stopped going down. Indeed, natural gas, heating oil and unleaded gasoline have established uptrends during the past month and crude oil closed above $60 U.S. per barrel yesterday.
Uncertainties related to the recent decline in the U.S. Dollar and possible actions by the new Congress are increasing.
In conclusion, U.S. equity markets have passed the Peaking phase and have entered the Distribution phase.
For U.S. equities, ETFs and mutual funds, caveat emptor!
The stock market normally progresses through eight phases during an intermediate cycle lasting (on average) a year. The range of time for a full cycle is 5 –15 months. Total number of cycles during the past 19 years: 19. Identifying which phase the market currently stands will help the investor to determine risk/reward parameters.
The eight phases are intuitive, but they can be measured and determined with a mechanical model. The eight phases are:
Bottoming
Base Building
Breakout
Mark Up
Peaking
Distribution
Breakdown
Markdown
The mechanical model primarily looks at the ratio of stocks in a broadly base index (e.g. S&P 500, TSX Composite) that are in an uptrend versus a downtrend (i.e. the up/down ratio).
The Bottoming Phase frequently occurs when the up/down ratio is between 1/3 and 1/2 (i.e. between 0.33 and 0.50). A Bottoming phase was identified in mid March, 2003 when the up/down ratio bottomed at 0.28 for the S&P 500 and 0.54 for the TSX Composite. The most recent Bottoming phase occurred in mid May 2004 when the up/down ratio for the TSX fell to 0.60 and up/down ratio for the S&P 500 fell to 0.72. Occasionally, extremes are reached. For example, the up/down ratio fell below 0.10 for the S&P 500 in July 2002 before turning higher.
The Peaking Phase frequently occurs when the up/down ratio is between 2/1 and 3/1 (i.e. between 2.00 and 3.00). Occasionally, extremes are reached. For example, the up/down ratio rose to 7.75 for the S&P 500 and 4.22 for the TSX Composite in the first week in March 2004 before turning lower.
Following is a graphic description of the eight phases originally published in the International Federation of Technical Analysts Journal.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Hedge-Fund Returns Can Be Matched Without Fees, Professor Says
By Adrian Cox
Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund investors could earn greater returns at a fraction of the cost, according to research by Cass Business School Professor Harry Kat, who designed software to automatically mimic funds' trading profits.
Synthetic funds would have outperformed 82 percent of the 2,000 hedge funds and 500 funds of hedge funds studied by Kat, a former head of equity derivatives at Bank of America Corp. Most of the gains generated by hedge funds were eaten up by fees, typically 2 percent of a portfolio and 20 percent of profits, he found after studying 15 years of monthly fund results.
``In most cases, managers aren't good enough to make up for the massive fees that they charge,'' said Kat, a professor of risk management at Cass, part of London's City University, in an interview. ``The combination of excessive fees and minimal opportunity in the market makes alternative investments really doubtful in terms of their value for portfolios.''
The $1.3 trillion hedge-fund industry is struggling to outshine the markets while taking in record amounts from wealthy investors and institutions. It has come under scrutiny since the September collapse of Greenwich, Connecticut-based Amaranth Advisors LLC, a fund that lost $6.6 billion on a wrong-way bet on energy prices.
The private pools of capital attracted $110.6 billion in the first nine months of the year, more than twice as much as in all of 2005, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. of Chicago. Funds of funds charge an extra 1 percent management fee and 10 percent of profits.
Replicating Performance
Kat and colleague Helder Palaro set up their ``FundCreator'' system to replicate the performance of any fund by identifying heavily traded futures that show the same volatility and risk characteristics over time, he said. Investors will pay 0.03 percent of the value of their portfolio for the information that they could then use to trade through a broker.
The system produces returns of about 10 percent a year, Kat said, compared with 6 percent to 7 percent after fees for the average hedge fund he studied.
To contact the reporter on this story: Adrian Cox in London at [email protected] .
Last Updated: November 27, 2006 19:11 EST
By Adrian Cox
Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund investors could earn greater returns at a fraction of the cost, according to research by Cass Business School Professor Harry Kat, who designed software to automatically mimic funds' trading profits.
Synthetic funds would have outperformed 82 percent of the 2,000 hedge funds and 500 funds of hedge funds studied by Kat, a former head of equity derivatives at Bank of America Corp. Most of the gains generated by hedge funds were eaten up by fees, typically 2 percent of a portfolio and 20 percent of profits, he found after studying 15 years of monthly fund results.
``In most cases, managers aren't good enough to make up for the massive fees that they charge,'' said Kat, a professor of risk management at Cass, part of London's City University, in an interview. ``The combination of excessive fees and minimal opportunity in the market makes alternative investments really doubtful in terms of their value for portfolios.''
The $1.3 trillion hedge-fund industry is struggling to outshine the markets while taking in record amounts from wealthy investors and institutions. It has come under scrutiny since the September collapse of Greenwich, Connecticut-based Amaranth Advisors LLC, a fund that lost $6.6 billion on a wrong-way bet on energy prices.
The private pools of capital attracted $110.6 billion in the first nine months of the year, more than twice as much as in all of 2005, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. of Chicago. Funds of funds charge an extra 1 percent management fee and 10 percent of profits.
Replicating Performance
Kat and colleague Helder Palaro set up their ``FundCreator'' system to replicate the performance of any fund by identifying heavily traded futures that show the same volatility and risk characteristics over time, he said. Investors will pay 0.03 percent of the value of their portfolio for the information that they could then use to trade through a broker.
The system produces returns of about 10 percent a year, Kat said, compared with 6 percent to 7 percent after fees for the average hedge fund he studied.
To contact the reporter on this story: Adrian Cox in London at [email protected] .
Last Updated: November 27, 2006 19:11 EST
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
It looks to me like there is another battle going on between bull and bear armies in the S&P's.
Monday's wide range opening hour had its high at 1402.75 from which point an avalanche of selling from the bear army developed. The pace of this selling started to wane near the low of that opening bar at 1392.50.
This morning's opening bar had its low at 1392.25 and from this point the bull army began its advance, putting in a wide range up bar. The move continued just to the point where the bears took hold of the market on Monday; today's high so far is 1402.50!
This is not an uncommon occurrence in markets. In this case I think the bulls will hold their lines at 1392.00 and begin another attack that will take the market above 1403. If I am wrong and the market drops below 1391 then I shall conclude that the bears have the stronger forces and will carry the market back down below 1378.
Secondo l'autore sopra i 1403 di eminispoore il test dei massimi ed il raggiungimento dell'area 1418/1420 probabile
Monday's wide range opening hour had its high at 1402.75 from which point an avalanche of selling from the bear army developed. The pace of this selling started to wane near the low of that opening bar at 1392.50.
This morning's opening bar had its low at 1392.25 and from this point the bull army began its advance, putting in a wide range up bar. The move continued just to the point where the bears took hold of the market on Monday; today's high so far is 1402.50!
This is not an uncommon occurrence in markets. In this case I think the bulls will hold their lines at 1392.00 and begin another attack that will take the market above 1403. If I am wrong and the market drops below 1391 then I shall conclude that the bears have the stronger forces and will carry the market back down below 1378.
Secondo l'autore sopra i 1403 di eminispoore il test dei massimi ed il raggiungimento dell'area 1418/1420 probabile
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
David Fuller
Japan technical review: Further underperformance or Buggins's turn? - The investment business has always resembled a fashion industry. To generate turnover, necktie widths widen before they narrow once again. The length of skirts rises and falls. And stock markets, driven by investor sentiment and the industry's own interest in turnover, move up or down far more frequently and to a much greater degree than can rationally be justified by fundamental economic factors.
Last year, Japan was every investor's darling among developed country stock markets. This year it has been a dog, and that's being very rude to dogs. This has led to a series of articles about how "Japan has blown it once again." I have even read that a demographic time bomb ensures that the last Japanese citizen alive will finally switch off the lights in Tokyo before the end of the century, or some such nonsense.
Extremes of sentiment are sweet music to contrarian investors. And crucially, some recent economic evidence that Japan's economy lives on, has produced initial technical evidence of a re-rating over the last week.
Consider the Nikkei which is working on a potential weekly key reversal, near some potential support. The daily chart shows two upside key day reversals in the last few days and it gapped higher today. The Topix Index (weekly & daily) is very similar. And these monthly charts for the Topix and Nikkei are also interesting - note the predictable reaction from all those previous highs near 1750 on the former. My guess is that we are in the latter stages of a lengthy medium-term consolidation prior to the next upside move which could clear 2000 next year. A similar move would take the Nikkei to 20,000. I have not liked Japan recently, until now, but it remains my favourite developed country stock market for the very long term.
Crucially for Japan, the leading Topix Banks Index (weekly & daily) shows a weekly key reversal, subject to gains holding through Friday, and a potential failed break of the June low. Lastly, the 2nd Section Index (weekly & daily), which led Japan's initial bull phase from the 2003 low and also the big correction, while no longer leading as small-cap shares have been out of favour generally, shows a potential failed break beneath 4000. There was also an upside key day reversal at last week's low on the daily chart.
Japan technical review: Further underperformance or Buggins's turn? - The investment business has always resembled a fashion industry. To generate turnover, necktie widths widen before they narrow once again. The length of skirts rises and falls. And stock markets, driven by investor sentiment and the industry's own interest in turnover, move up or down far more frequently and to a much greater degree than can rationally be justified by fundamental economic factors.
Last year, Japan was every investor's darling among developed country stock markets. This year it has been a dog, and that's being very rude to dogs. This has led to a series of articles about how "Japan has blown it once again." I have even read that a demographic time bomb ensures that the last Japanese citizen alive will finally switch off the lights in Tokyo before the end of the century, or some such nonsense.
Extremes of sentiment are sweet music to contrarian investors. And crucially, some recent economic evidence that Japan's economy lives on, has produced initial technical evidence of a re-rating over the last week.
Consider the Nikkei which is working on a potential weekly key reversal, near some potential support. The daily chart shows two upside key day reversals in the last few days and it gapped higher today. The Topix Index (weekly & daily) is very similar. And these monthly charts for the Topix and Nikkei are also interesting - note the predictable reaction from all those previous highs near 1750 on the former. My guess is that we are in the latter stages of a lengthy medium-term consolidation prior to the next upside move which could clear 2000 next year. A similar move would take the Nikkei to 20,000. I have not liked Japan recently, until now, but it remains my favourite developed country stock market for the very long term.
Crucially for Japan, the leading Topix Banks Index (weekly & daily) shows a weekly key reversal, subject to gains holding through Friday, and a potential failed break of the June low. Lastly, the 2nd Section Index (weekly & daily), which led Japan's initial bull phase from the 2003 low and also the big correction, while no longer leading as small-cap shares have been out of favour generally, shows a potential failed break beneath 4000. There was also an upside key day reversal at last week's low on the daily chart.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
We have another new all-time high in the equal-weighted CRB today, and now the XNG Natural Gas and XOI Oil equity indices are also breaking out to new all-time highs...
The "mob" in the US may continue to fool themselves that there's no inflation and cheer new highs in the equity market despite their purchasing power slowly eroding away, but at the end of the day, they lose, not gain. This is not Goldilocks.
Other than gold, the euro has been just about the strongest currency in the world over the past five years. Check out how exciting the S&P has been when priced in euros since 2000? The picture looks even worse when the S&P is priced in gold.
But the dollar's sharp drop against virtually every piece of confetti on the planet over the past five days shows us that the rest of the world sees something a little different, and it's not Goldilocks.
Since the end of October, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet by 1.6%, or an annualized 21.4%. That monthly rate of change of the Fed balance sheet has only been exceeded in December 2002, the 1999 tech bubble, and December of 2000. Has the Fed already begun to try and "print away" the housing bust? It certainly appears that way to me. It won't work, but the end result of the bust can be "masked" to some degree depending on how much inflation is generated.
The "mob" in the US may continue to fool themselves that there's no inflation and cheer new highs in the equity market despite their purchasing power slowly eroding away, but at the end of the day, they lose, not gain. This is not Goldilocks.
Other than gold, the euro has been just about the strongest currency in the world over the past five years. Check out how exciting the S&P has been when priced in euros since 2000? The picture looks even worse when the S&P is priced in gold.
But the dollar's sharp drop against virtually every piece of confetti on the planet over the past five days shows us that the rest of the world sees something a little different, and it's not Goldilocks.
Since the end of October, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet by 1.6%, or an annualized 21.4%. That monthly rate of change of the Fed balance sheet has only been exceeded in December 2002, the 1999 tech bubble, and December of 2000. Has the Fed already begun to try and "print away" the housing bust? It certainly appears that way to me. It won't work, but the end result of the bust can be "masked" to some degree depending on how much inflation is generated.
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