TBOND-BUND-EUROSTOX-FIBMERD fine del capitalismo(V.M.98anni)

[Leo's]

ciao raga, un consiglio:
mettiamo che un cojone sia andato short con 3 russel a 782 (per motivi al momento non precisati), sia uscito da casa e sia tornato ora vedendo 797, più 1,7%, max assoluti... perdita circa 3000
mettiamo che il cojone si sia così sputtanato il 100% del capitale disponibile e non sa neanche se i margini tengano in over
mettiamo che non abbia più una lira se non questi 9000, tutti impegnati in margini...
ora, chiudendo subito perde tutto e pace, probabilmente non traderà mai più, e stanotte non dormirà...
tenendo e sperando che scenda tutto chiuderà forse meglio domani (ma forse peggio) e

tranne le parolacce, cosa mi dite?

 

[Jolly]

Ciao
scusa se intervengo, dato che non ho consigli da darti....., ma perchè con TRE contratti (oltretutto sei sottocapitalizzato!) e pure contro trend e sul Russel poi?
Lo so che in questo 3d certe cose non si possono dire, ma fino ad ora il trend è stato al ! Allora perchè esporsi così tanto? Certo prima o poi scenderà, ma così ti prendi rischi troppo grossi senza nemmeno tenerti un colpo in canna........
Scusa, leggo spesso questo 3d senza intervenire, ma queste cose mi fan star male, spero che le tue siano semplicemente battute di spirito.....
Metodo e disciplina, e poi ancora metodo e disciplina.....
Ciao ed in bocca al lupo

 

[gipa69]

ciao raga, un consiglio:
mettiamo che un cojone sia andato short con 3 russel a 782 (per motivi al momento non precisati), sia uscito da casa e sia tornato ora vedendo 797, più 1,7%, max assoluti... perdita circa 3000
mettiamo che il cojone si sia così sputtanato il 100% del capitale disponibile e non sa neanche se i margini tengano in over
mettiamo che non abbia più una lira se non questi 9000, tutti impegnati in margini...
ora, chiudendo subito perde tutto e pace, probabilmente non traderà mai più, e stanotte non dormirà...
tenendo e sperando che scenda tutto chiuderà forse meglio domani (ma forse peggio) e

tranne le parolacce, cosa mi dite?

Che hai sbagliato, me ne dispiace ma hai sbagliato.
Posizione troppo estrema.

 

[gipa69]

Re: La situazione del mercato US

Durante la scorsa settimana la rottura della trendline ascendente dello Spx aveva convinto molti del possibile sviluppo di una correzione di medio degli indici azionari tenuto presente che durante queste sedute di debolezza si erano sviluppate interessanti comportamenti interni ai mercati ed esterni che potevano segnalare una seria pausa correttiva:
1)Debolezza del settore finanziario
2)Forza dell'oro contro le commodity industriali
3)Allargamento della curva sui tassi
4)Debolezza dei mercati del medio oriente
5)Possibile rerating del mercato Giapponese
6)Nuova forza delle commodity

In realtà però, pur rimanendo tutti questi elementi di incertezza il mercato è riuscito con un buon guizzo a recuperare la trendline segnalando, seppure con pericolose divergenze la possibile ripresa del trend rialzista.

Personalmente rimango orientato sulla possibilità che la fase di consolidamento prosegua ancora seppure al momento non sembrerebbe tale da fare eccessivi danni seppure i livelli da monitorare sullo spoore non sono poi cosi' lontani (1377 e 1363).

Sebbene vi sia una certa divergenza tra i vari poll sul sentiment degli investitori i grafici sui fondi Rydex mostrano che gli individuali stanno ancora entrando sui mercati sebbene con cautela ed in particolare proseguono le chiusure delle posizioni bearish.
Sebbene vi sia ancora spazio le posizioni degli individuali si vanno via via più estese.

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/11651847451201.gif

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/116518475812012.gif

Le dichiarazioni delle autorità monetarie asiatiche, russe e del medio oriente hanno posto pressioni al dollaro. (collegate probabilmente agli incontri previsti il 14 dicembre tra Bernanke e Paulson e le autorità Cinesi alfine di "preparare" meglio l'incontro)
Su questo si sono innestate la riduzione dello spread tra rendimenti obbligazionari dell'area dollaro rispetto ad altre aree e la situazione macro USA che gli ultimi dati USA mostrano in peggioramento.
I future quotati al CME sui prezzi degli immobili scontano una discesa più marcata dei prezzi nei primi sei mesi del prossimo anno (e questo potrebbe essere effettivamente un problema per i mutui totali) ed i consumi mostrano una chiara divergenza di vendite tra gli store che si rivolgono alla fascia alta (vendite in crescita) e quelli che si rivolgono alla fascia bassa (vendite in calo).

Tutto questo ha creato il movimento più importante nel corso della settimana e cioè il forte movimento correttivo del dollaro, movimento che è apprezzato dalle autorità monetarie USA se avviene gradualmente ma non è tollerato se subisce accelerazioni che possono destabilizzare l'intero sistema finanziario.
Come detto in passato le autorità USA preferirebbero nella situazione attuale essere costrette a muovere i tassi tra diverso tempo mentre invece i mercati richiedono ormai a gran voce in tanto auspicato taglio.
Il movimento della settimana sulla curva dei tassi sottolinea questo con l'allargamento dello spread tra le varie scadenze che dal mio punto di vista potrebbe portare a delle conseguenze anche sui mercati azionari.
Su questo grafico è segnato lo spartiacque da seguire in chiave intermarket.

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1165185276tyxfvx02122006.gif


I carry sono in fase di riduzione e questo è una delle cause della debolezza della settimana non sviluppatasi in maniera massiccia negli USA perchè li gli investitori individuali sono attualmente compratori e quindi limitano maggiormente i movimenti rispetto agli altri mercati. (e la debolezza del dollaro favorisce gli arbitraggi su quel mercato..)

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1165185395dbvspx01122006.png

Per la prossima settimana continuare a osservare i segnali di debolezza elencati all'inizio del post può essere utile per capire la profondità di questa correzione.
In particolare un commento in più lo voglio riservare all'andamento del petrolio.
Infatti un suo recupero potrebbe essere una spada di damocle per i mercati ma solo se questo recupero avverrà in maniera complessiva e non solo per la debolezza del dollaro.
Per questo motivo il modo milgiore per osservare le eventuali pressione inflazionistiche del settore energy è opportuno confrontare l'andamento del petrolio con l'andamento di una delle valute più forti della fase attuale (l'euro).
Notare come la correlazione del prezzo del petrolio in Euro e gli indici azionari sia molto più lampante che non con il semplice prezzo del petrolio.

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1165185747wtixeurspx02122006.png

L'analisi era corretta ma la conclusione errata.
Mentre la debolezza del dollaro ha reso più forti i mercati USA il consolidamento è terminato con una nuova forte seduta rialzista che ha spinto lo spoore su nuovi massimi e con ancora un pò di spazio al rialzo.
Le divergenze segnalate in alcuni casi rimangono ma altre sembrano chiudersi a favore del rialzo.
Sugli internals la partecipazione al rialzo rimane estesa segno di un rialzo con ancora forza da esprimere.
Personalmente è un rialzo da prendere con le molle ma da rispettare
Preferisco continuare a perdere almeno parte delle occasioni che si presentano ma non bruciarmi con movimenti inaspettati.

 

[gipa69]

Below is the Friday, December 1, 2006 Daily Market Summary column...

US Manufacturing Officially Goes Into Contraction And Rips Off Another Appendage Of “Goldilocks”

Asia was mixed overnight. Japan rose a touch, while Hong Kong fell over a percent. Europe was hit for a percent this morning, and the US futures were off just a touch.

We opened flat in the S&Ps and went into a sideways flop while we awaited the November ISM. The November ISM fell to 49.5, which was well below the consensus that was expecting a rise to 52. Any reading below 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is in contraction, and I would also note that the prices paid index rose to 53.5 from 47. Those data points don’t exactly fit with “Goldilocks” do they?

The S&Ps actually treated bad news as “bad news” for a change (at least for now) and reacted by falling off a small cliff. As expected, the dollar plunged, while gold firmed (although it would stumble somewhat later in the session). The short-end of the bond market rallied big on an expectation of the Fed easing in Q1, and the long end rallied somewhat less (i.e. - the curve steepened). In fact before the ISM data hit, the fed funds futures market was indicating that the odds of a rate cut in Q1 were less than 50 percent. After the data, the odds were increased to over 70 percent.

We worked our way lower over the next 30 minutes or so in the S&Ps and then began to bounce. When the rally failed mid-morning well shy of the unchanged mark, we rolled over and began working our way lower again. With about 2 hours to go in the session, we slipped to a new low for the day, but just as it looked like the selling might get out of hand. Bids came in and we V’d out and rallied for the remainder of the session to retrace virtually all of the post-ISM losses and end near the better levels of the day. Volume backed off some (1.7 bil on the NYSE and 2 bil on the NASDAQ). Breadth was slightly negative on the NYSE and just shy of 2 to 1 negative on the NASDAQ.

The chips were mostly lower by 1 to 2 percent. The equips were mostly lower by a couple percent, ex-NVLS, which was up over 3 percent on speculation that it was a takeover target. The SOX fell over a percent.

The rest of tech was mostly lower but basically unremarkable.

The financials were mostly lower. The BKX fell a touch, and the XBD fell over a percent. MER fell just shy of a percent, and GS was off a hair. The derivative king fell half a percent. BAC fell over half a percent, and C fell just under half a percent. GE was flat.

GM rose over a percent after reporting its November sales rose 6.1 percent, although that was apparently at the expense of Ford (F), which said its November sales fell 9.6 percent and also said it expected the entire auto industry to soften in 2007 due to the housing bust and a slower economy. AIG fell nearly a percent. ABK fell over a percent, and MBI fell half a percent.

The subprime consumer lenders were mostly lower in the wake of HRB reporting that its subprime mortgage business saw loan volume fall 15 percent sequentially (down 46 percent year over year), saw margins fall by more than half, and saw defaults rise as well. Basically, it was another data point suggesting that the subprime consumer is on the ropes. As we’ve been saying, subprime consumers should be the first group to feel the pain of the housing bust, so this “theory” continues to be proven out by the data. ACF fell 2 percent to and back to just shy of its lows for the year. CCRT fell a percent, and COF fell a third of a percent.

The mortgage lenders were mixed and mostly up or down a percent or so. The mortgage insurers were also mixed and mostly up or down less than a percent. FRE and FNM fell a third of a percent.

The retailers were mostly lower, with the RTH off just a hair. WMT fell half a percent to a new low for the move since its October peak. BBY fell over 2 percent, and TGT fell over a percent. The retailers continue to slowly roll over after having peaked out in October for the most part. So, unlike the S&Ps, their highs may have already been seen.

The homies were mostly higher by a percent or two on the back of mortgage rates falling again. BLDR rose 2 percent.

Crude oil rose 30 cents to $63.43. The XOI rose a third of a percent. The XNG rose a hair to a new high, and the OSX rose a percent to another new high for the move since its October low. The XLB fell a percent.

The JOC rose a percent to a 4-month high and is quickly closing in on a new all-time high. The GSCI fell a touch, and the CCI-CRB fell a touch. For the week, however, that makes another new all-time weekly closing high for the CCI-CRB.

The base metals were mixed. Copper fell a percent, while lead popped 3 percent.

Feb gold opened down about $2 this morning in the US and then proceeded to rally and accelerate into positive territory by over $2 to as high as $655.50 in the wake of the ISM falling below 50. For no apparent reason, the rally then flamed out, and we slipped back to the morning’s lows to go out just off the initial opening lows, down $2.30 to $650.60. Spot silver rose half a percent to another new high for the move.

GLD inhaled 525,000 oz (or 17 tonnes) yesterday, bringing its total gold holdings to another new high of 14,200,912 oz. For the month of November, GLD inhaled 54 tonnes of gold, or 1.7 million oz. Now that’s what I call investment DEMAND, and it seems to be in accelerating too (see the following chart of the ounces in the trust since its inception). Given what is happening to the dollar, that obviously makes sense too.

The HUI went out in the middle of the day’s trading range and fell half a percent. A handful of the shares were higher on the day, but it basically looked like the shares were just taking a rest after the big move we had yesterday.

Our junior basket index fell just shy of a percent. NSU was hit the hardest and fell 4 percent, while MFN did the best and rose 2 percent. NSU has underperformed over the last month or so, but I’m not exactly sure why. There is no fundamental problem there that I am aware of, and the stock is still extremely cheap relative to its NAV at $600 gold. Sometimes these juniors simply march to their own drummer for a variety of reasons. They’ll appear to be dead in the water and then just suddenly pop for no particular reason. I continue to hold my NSU fro those that care.

We got our sub-50 ISM like we were expecting, which historically means the Fed is out of the picture, and the dollar got hit as a result. But, we obviously didn’t see much of anything happen in gold? My guess is that the metal had basically already discounted the ISM as of yesterday and simply took a rest today.

We learned this morning that the ECB sold 23 tonnes of gold yesterday, nearly all of which was apparently purchased by the GLD Gold ETF. Given that this sale took place yesterday on a day that gold gained $11 (and rose in euros too), gold’s action both yesterday and today can only be described as beyond spectacular in my view.

Maybe the shares and metal need to rest a little or maybe they don’t? But I continue to expect there’s a good possibility that we’ll see new highs in both by year-end with the way things are going.

The US dollar index plunged half a percent to another new 52-week low. We also learned that the trade-weighted dollar closed at 106.45 yesterday, just 0.03 points away from a new multiyear-low. Given what the dollar did today, it most certainly made a new low today though (again, the data isn’t updated until later tonight). The yen rose half a percent to a new high for the move since its recent low, and the euro rose half a percent to another new 52-week high. The British pound also rose a percent to another new 14-year high.

How many complaints from the official sector, either in the US or abroad, have we heard about the dollar’s drop in the past two weeks? Answer: Not one. What that says to me is that this is drop in the dollar is being “condoned” and perhaps even helped along by the official sector in order to try and continue the correction of the enormous current account imbalance that the US has with the rest of the world in the hope that US export growth can eventually offset the weakness in consumption that is coming from the housing bust and its effect on the US consumer. I don’t think it’s going to work out quite the way they think, just as the central-planned economy of the USSR didn’t. But this is what is happening behind the scenes in my opinion. They may not know it yet, but the decline underway in the dollar is akin to the opening of Pandora’s Box.

Once again, I’d also note that the forex market (and all of the markets really) continue to ignore hawkish Fed “talk” completely. For example, the Fed’s Moskow was out today saying that more rate hikes might be needed to fight inflation, and the foreign currencies and metals completely ignored it, as did the fixed income market. Again, I think the market has figured out that these guys are “all hat and no cattle”. The Fed has clearly chosen to allow inflation to accelerate rather than risk turning the housing bust into a housing nuclear winter with higher interest rates. Because of the housing bust, they have been reduced to merely talking down inflation, and the market has begun to call their bluff.

Treasuries rallied again, with the yield on the 10yr falling to 4.43% and another new low for the move. However, for the first time in a while, the bigger rally was in the short end (which the Fed controls), meaning the market increased the odds of the Fed easing. The 2/10 inversion narrowed a huge 6 bps to just -10 bps. The odds of an easing in Q1 were also increased to over 70 percent per the fed funds futures market.

The 10yr junk spread to treasuries widened 4 bps to 308 bps over treasuries.

The economic data is now turning more and more ominous, but with it being December, the bulls are still trying their best to ignore the data and simply make it past the finish line at year-end. And so far, they’re pulling it off. I’m continuing to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt through year-end, but the odds are increasing that we could put in an important peak at the year-end mark, ala the Nikkei in 1990. We won’t know until we get there, but that’s the way things appear to be shaping up to me at the moment.

My guess for the near-term is that we may work a little lower next week in the equity market, but that the Fed will give the bulls some sort of “carrot” on the 12th that will trigger a rally in to year-end. As for what that carrot might be, I could see the FOMC potentially changing the FOMC statement to reflect that the risks are now officially “mainly weighted toward conditions that might generate economic weakness”, which by the way is exactly what they did in the December 2000 FOMC statement after having just said in the prior month’s statement that the risks were still towards inflation.

Any of that sound familiar? Let’s not forget that the Fed then did a surprise easing in January of 2001 too as it became obvious that business spending was falling off a cliff. This sort of a scenario is what is coming in my opinion, and it’s going to be extremely bearish for the dollar and super bullish for inflation and gold.

The difference between now and the Fed’s easing in January of 2001 is that this time inflation is still accelerating and the dollar is already tanking, so an easing is only going to make that inflation worse. At some point the bond market should get upset about that and the resulting decline in the dollar and push up long-term interest rates as a result, which should cause more problems for the domestic economy and for US stocks. In other words, I don’t think the Fed can print its way out of the situation this time.

As for why the bond market hasn’t reacted to the dollar’s weakness yet, I’m not sure, but I believe it will. It may just be that the bond market won’t actually start to weaken until the Fed actually does ease.

There’s only a couple ways that the bond market won’t eventually push up rates in the long end in my view. One is if the Fed starts aggressively buying the long end and basically monetizing it, which of course will only make inflation worse (and perhaps they’re already doing this to some extent “unofficially” given what we can see “officially” in the growth of the Fed’s balance sheet).

Or two, if the US authorities can talk China or Japan into continuing to perpetuate the global imbalances that are already in place (and make them even worse) by continuing to buy treasuries, but so far that isn’t happening, as the yen and renminbi continue to rise. And given the continued push by the US government to try and get the Chinese to revalue against the dollar (which would then demand that the Japanese allow the yen to rise as well), that doesn’t appear to be likely to change or be “the plan” either. Frankly, I am a little puzzled at what “the plan” of the “powers that be” is, given the risks is. But again, I’m not so sure they know what they are getting into in going down this path, just as the US didn’t know what it was getting into when it invaded Iraq 3 years ago.

For now though, the bond market continues to ignore the dollar and rally based on Fed expectations, and stock bulls are more than likely content to ride what they have into the year-end print, with the gold and oil shares outperforming as it becomes more and more obvious that we're headed for a stagflationary sandwich next year at best. That's the "road map" as I see it anyway for the moment.

 

[gipa69]

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2006/IO+December+2006.htm

 

[dan24]

ma se ne è andato veramente o appena gli scatta qualche allarme torna di corsa e annuncia un megashort sul minind?

dan ma vaadarvialeciapet và

nun mi è scattato nessun allarme short

giorno a tutti.

 

[dan24]

ciao raga, un consiglio:
mettiamo che un cojone sia andato short con 3 russel a 782 (per motivi al momento non precisati), sia uscito da casa e sia tornato ora vedendo 797, più 1,7%, max assoluti... perdita circa 3000
mettiamo che il cojone si sia così sputtanato il 100% del capitale disponibile e non sa neanche se i margini tengano in over
mettiamo che non abbia più una lira se non questi 9000, tutti impegnati in margini...
ora, chiudendo subito perde tutto e pace, probabilmente non traderà mai più, e stanotte non dormirà...
tenendo e sperando che scenda tutto chiuderà forse meglio domani (ma forse peggio) e

tranne le parolacce, cosa mi dite?

Leo porka paletta.....3 short sul russel e vai a farti pure un giro fuori? e sei sottocapitalizzato?....sticazzzzi.....stai scherzando? spero di si....se non stai scherzando c'e' poco da dirti...sia a livello tecnico che di gestione del rischio....qui sian tutti pazzi ...ma per operare con più contratti per lo meno smedia le posizioni....non entrare tutto insieme e poi vai a farti un giro su una bestia come il russel....MI DISPIACE!!!!!!!!

 

[dan24]

eurostox daily

come dicevo ieri...sopra l'area 4067/75 potrebbe tornare in area 4023...passando per la ribassista di breve in area 4005 oggi. rimane una struttura correttiva di breve ma potrebbe iniziare movimento lateral cazzeggio per alcune settimane....il rischio come diceva gipa è di vedere adesso movimenti "strani" come in Usa ....e andare contro a riprese di movimenti rialzisti veloci. limito l'operatività ad un solo contratto e prediligo l'intraday se non in caso di veloce rimbalzo in area 4050 dove passa anche il 61.8% del movimento di breve. quindi 4023 e 4050 passando per i 4005 sono punti di resistenze forti per il breve periodo. Ripresa del toro solo sopra i max assoluti.

 

[dan24]

Bund daily

torna sotto di poco la resistenza a 118,70. nessun eccesso sul daily ne tantomeno sul settimanale. Unica constatazione è che a livello daily sembra un 1-2-3 di sperandeo. Manca il 3 cioè la rottura dell'1 ma si potrebbe tentare cmq short in quest'area e fino ai 119 con stop abbastanza largo (rischioso da fare con un solo contratto per me) sopra i 119,40. Inizio già da ieri a trattare il contratto marzo. il dicembre sta scadendo.