TBOND-BUND-EUROSTOX-FIBMERD fine del capitalismo(V.M.98anni)

[gipa69]

German October Factory Orders Unexpectedly Declined

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- German factory orders unexpectedly dropped for a second month in October, led by a slump in domestic demand for cars and trucks.

Orders fell 1.1 percent from September when they declined 3 percent, the Economy and Technology Ministry in Berlin said today.

Demand for vehicles dropped as companies including Volkswagen AG and DaimlerChrysler AG forecast yesterday domestic sales will be flat in 2007 as a higher sales tax counters the benefits of new models and the lowest jobless rate in four years.

-----------------

Italian November Retail Sales Fall for a Second Month on Taxes

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Italian retail sales fell for the second month in November as the government's plan to raise income taxes curtailed spending.

An index of retail sales stood at a seasonally adjusted 48.0 compared with 47.4 in October, according to a survey of 440 retailing executives compiled for Bloomberg LP by NTC Economics Ltd. A reading below 50 signals a contraction.

Many Italians earning more than 40,000 euros ($53,300) face higher income taxes as a result of Prime Minister Romano Prodi's 2007 budget, which includes spending cuts that could affect services for consumers. The European Central Bank is also poised to raise borrowing costs for the sixth time in a year, a burden for households with mortgages.

 

[masgui]

bravo vecio , la tua storia sta a testimoniare che avendo capitali e intelligenza tradaiola è quasi impossibile far male

andato via dan lo S&P500 ha perso 10 punti un bel vaadarvialeciap se l'è meritato in ogni caso domani con i payroll il CHAOS

Bravo ditro e ottimo l'articolo di Fleu che riassume i pericoli classici dell'ingegneria finanziaria e della ricerca del limite, ma è normale. L'analisi matematica ci insegna che per capire una funzione bisogna portarla al limite. a lunedi.

 

[giomf]

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1165446493spx06122006.gif
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1165446507picture_20.png
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1165446521picture_23.png
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1165446534spx.gif

Se ho ben capito . .Gipa ...i grafici qui sopra dello S&P500 . .sarebbero previsioni di massimi

verso ....circa...il 19...o...22 ...dicembre .... ?

 

[gipa69]

Se ho ben capito . .Gipa ...i grafici qui sopra dello S&P500 . .sarebbero previsioni di massimi

verso ....circa...il 19...o...22 ...dicembre .... ?

mica tutti dicono questo....

 

[alan1]

Stamani forse sono un po' assonnato,
ma non ho capito che indicatore è usato quì:

http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1165446521picture_23.png

 

[gipa69]

Stamani forse sono un po' assonnato,
ma non ho capito che indicatore è usato quì:

http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1165446521picture_23.png

Se parli delle linee blu non sono un indicatore ma linee di supporto /resistenza di lungo periodo su cui l'indice ha avuto modo di confrontarsi in diverse fasi degli ultimi anni della sua vita.

L'area 1420 in particolare ha segnato il picco del 1999 ed è stata più volte testata durante lo sviluppo del top del 2000.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Bonjour a tout les bondaroles

CHAOS day , sotto 100k di nuovo posti di lavori si balla

spread S&Pmib/eu50xx dic06 risalito di nuovo sui massimi, ora attorno a +60
il nostrano sta disegnando su timeframe bassi una precisa canalina ascendente di cui sta tastando il side inferiore ( zona 40600)

da notare il salto fatto ieri dallo spread CrudeOil F-G07 ( 7 gg alla scadenza del gennaio)
da -1,40-1,50 a -0,65 , ogni 0,01 fanno 10$

 

[gipa69]

In fact, during both panel discussions, the inversion in the US yield curve was a point-of-attack that was repeatedly brought front-and-center, which has caused me to extend my own thought process on the topic. With that in mind, I offer some of the text from Tuesday’s edition of “Weldon’s Money Monitor” (found at weldononline.com) for further contemplation:

“Indeed, amid the clouded-conundrum-confusion, I might offer a thought process that could provide clarity, implying that the inversion in the yield curve reflects two things:

Fist, the fact that the most recent dose of paper-asset-inflation has been driven by private credit creation that has not seen any ‘participation’ from the Fed. The Fed’s own rate of US Treasury accumulation has plunged to a multi-year low, from a record high.

Moreover, amid the push to new highs in credit week after week after week, my firm notes the complete lack of concurrent growth in the monetary base, in deposits, and in currency.

Perhaps the yield curve inversion reflects this divergence, with the understanding that my ‘second point’ ties it all together meaning, secondly, the inverted yield curve reflects the inverting housing market. Here, increasingly, home owners are getting ‘tilted’ into an ‘upside-down’ position, particularly as re-sets intensify, where home price deflation drives the value of the asset below the amount owed on the debt to which that asset represents ‘collateral.’

The yield curve inversion reflects the fact that the last ‘leg’ of asset price reflation was not ‘implicitly supported’ by Fed monetary policy, which only serves to intensify the risk of an inverted housing dynamic and thus, the risk of a debt disinflation.

To begin ‘fixing’ things, a la a shift towards rebalancing and narrowing the acute global imbalances in trade, income, labor, wealth, consumption, output, investment, and savings, US household credit needs to contract, and savings needs to rise.

Thus the conundrum; if US household credit begins to actually ‘contract’ then the risk of an overt debt-deflation intensifies dramatically.

The inverted yield curve implicitly states belief that the Fed will need to pump money back into the system, from a long-term perspective, even if it means doing so in a stealth way, while maintaining shorter-term interest rates on the ‘higher’ side. They might do this in order to cover the back of the USD depreciation, specifically as it would apply via any resultant inflation-credibility-scrutiny.

For sure, my firm has long stated the Fed cares not about the buck, but only about interest rates, particularly at the long-end.

And, for now, foreign officialdom continues to accumulate the greenback on a regular basis, as is clearly reflected in the latest Custody holdings data and in the individual country-by-country Official FX Reserves data.

The conundrum extends to everyone.

In short, here is Weldon’s ‘ultimate’ definition of the conundrum:

A) To begin fixing global imbalances, US household credit must contract.
B) If US household credit were to contract, it would be a debacle for all.

The inversion in the US Housing market provides a clear and present danger, in terms of turning the conundrum into a reality.

The US Yield Curve reflects this ominous thought process, in our opinion.

The Dollar reflects the fact that the Fed will care more about the risk of debt disinflation, as opposed to rampant price reflation in commodities such as gold and silver, or even energy.

In this case, consider it from the following perspective:

Since, commodities are priced in USD, a decline in the value of the USD against the CNY renders the commodity-buying-power of China’s massive reserves subject to the risk of ‘disinflation.'

Indeed, this has been the case for some time now, though more so because of a rise in commodity prices, which has directly served to ‘flatten’ the ‘real’ growth in official USD Reserves.

In other words, it takes $1 trillion now to buy the same amount of commodities that would have taken $700 billion to purchase just a few years ago.

Thus, the growth in Chinese reserves from $700 bln to $1 trillion in the last year, is not as powerful as it might seem, particularly given the more recent appreciation in the Yuan versus the US Dollar.

Ultimately, this makes more of a case for Chinese purchases of Gold. Gold in Yuan terms has risen, and thus the value of $700 billion held by Chinese officialdom in Gold over the last couple of years would facilitate the purchase of more commodities today than it would have then.

Alas, given that the Chinese cannot possibly, logistically, realistically hold any majority of their reserves in Gold, it makes no sense for them to suggest a sale of US Treasury paper that would only mean an even more intense flooding of the globe with paper dollars from the Fed.

Voila... thanks to what we call the incestuously co-dependent relationships between US household-government USD debt and foreign export-revenue generated ‘USD savings,’ we have ‘perfectly balanced imbalance.’

Harmony for the Holidays?

Hardly!

 

[Leo's]

Bonjour a tout les bondaroles

CHAOS day , sotto 100k di nuovo posti di lavori si balla

spread S&Pmib/eu50xx dic06 risalito di nuovo sui massimi, ora attorno a +60
il nostrano sta disegnando su timeframe bassi una precisa canalina ascendente di cui sta tastando il side inferiore ( zona 40600)

da notare il salto fatto ieri dallo spread CrudeOil F-G07 ( 7 gg alla scadenza del gennaio)
da -1,40-1,50 a -0,65 , ogni 0,01 fanno 10$

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1165575955estella_20warren029_1_.jpg

cosa ne pensi dei max del spmerd? gli usa abbondamente scesi ieri e noi ai max?
e in che senso chaos day oggi? i nostri sono dei furboni credo, e se sono così alti mi sa che anticipano una bella salita dopo i dati, e non una discesa...
que pensas?

e basta con ste gnokkone ...

ora ne trovo qualcuna pure io va ..

 

[alan1]

Se parli delle linee blu non sono un indicatore ma linee di supporto /resistenza di lungo periodo su cui l'indice ha avuto modo di confrontarsi in diverse fasi degli ultimi anni della sua vita.

L'area 1420 in particolare ha segnato il picco del 1999 ed è stata più volte testata durante lo sviluppo del top del 2000.

Ovviamente no,

parlo dell'indicatore che c'è sotto.