gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
The headline seasonally adjusted data is the only data the media reports but the Department of Labor (DOL) also reports the not seasonally adjusted data (NSA). The DOL said in today's press release, "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 366,596 in the week ending January 26, a decrease of 70,429 from the previous week. There were 422,287 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012." [Added emphasis mine]
This year's filings represented an decrease of 13% over the referenced week last year. Due to the calendar factors, the current week would more correctly be compared with the week ended January 21, 2012. Using that date the decline was 49,000 or -11.8%, not a material difference. The year to year comparisons are beginning to normalize in the actual, unadjusted data, but not in the seasonally adjusted data, which is giving an unusually misleading picture this week, particularly in terms of the analysts' expectations game. The problem this week is that the economists were actually closer to being correct this week. The SA data was just way off the mark in correctly representing the trend.
Claims always peak in the first full week ended in January. This year, that was the week which ended on January 12. Last year it was the week ended January 7. Because the government and mainstream analysts make the "year-to-year" comparison versus 52 weeks ago, not exactly a year ago, that's a problem this year, partly due to the fact that last year was a leap year with 366 days or 52.29 weeks . Therefore, comparing the January 12 week this year with the January 14, 2012 week was not an "apples to apples" comparison, nor are the following weeks. In this case, the "like" week for the January 12 week this year was the one ended January 7, 2012.
This year's filings represented an decrease of 13% over the referenced week last year. Due to the calendar factors, the current week would more correctly be compared with the week ended January 21, 2012. Using that date the decline was 49,000 or -11.8%, not a material difference. The year to year comparisons are beginning to normalize in the actual, unadjusted data, but not in the seasonally adjusted data, which is giving an unusually misleading picture this week, particularly in terms of the analysts' expectations game. The problem this week is that the economists were actually closer to being correct this week. The SA data was just way off the mark in correctly representing the trend.
Claims always peak in the first full week ended in January. This year, that was the week which ended on January 12. Last year it was the week ended January 7. Because the government and mainstream analysts make the "year-to-year" comparison versus 52 weeks ago, not exactly a year ago, that's a problem this year, partly due to the fact that last year was a leap year with 366 days or 52.29 weeks . Therefore, comparing the January 12 week this year with the January 14, 2012 week was not an "apples to apples" comparison, nor are the following weeks. In this case, the "like" week for the January 12 week this year was the one ended January 7, 2012.
