Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Tbond,Tnote,Bund&CO-giu/lug2006: fuga dai Bonds (vm18)

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Allora facciamo un pò di concorrenza a Fo64


UPDATE 3-Japan GDP revised up, rate rise still seen likely


Updates markets, adds consumer confidence index)

By Yoko Nishikawa

TOKYO, June 12 (Reuters) - Japan's economy grew more than initially estimated in the first three months of this year, providing further evidence of a solid recovery that may encourage the Bank of Japan to soon end an era of zero interest rates.

The economy grew 0.8 percent in January-March in real price-adjusted terms from the previous quarter, higher than an initial reading for a 0.5 percent expansion but matching economists' consensus forecast.


The revision translated into annualised growth of 3.1 percent, compared with a preliminary reading of a 1.9 percent expansion, the government data showed on Monday.

The figure cemented market expectations that the BOJ would raise interest rates for the first time in six years as early as July despite a slide in share prices in the last month.

"The revised GDP growth is in line with expectations and will not affect the outlook for the BOJ's monetary policy," said Tatsuo Ichikawa, chief strategist on Japanese government bonds at ABN Amro Securities.

"The revised figure confirms that the recent stock market falls won't prompt the BOJ to change its stance or prevent it from raising interest rates," he said.

The Nikkei stock average <.N225> has fallen 18 percent from its peak in April, hitting its lowest level since November last week. It edged up 0.56 percent on Monday as retailers such as Aeon Co. Ltd. (8267.T: Quote, Profile, Research) rose on the revised GDP numbersShares have been falling recently on concerns that tighter monetary policy by central banks around the world may slow economic growth worldwide.

The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield was little changed at 1.830 percent as of 0601 GMT amid caution ahead of a BOJ policy meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. But traders expect no policy shift this month.

FIRM DOMESTIC DEMAND

Japan's economy has been enjoying a steady recovery over the past few years as companies regain strength after years of painful restructuring. They are now paying more to their employees and hiring more, supporting personal consumption.


The economy is in its second-longest growth cycle of the postwar era, outlasting the 51-month "bubble" boom from December 1986 to February 1991.

If the recovery runs until November, it will surpass the "Izanagi" boom of the late 1960s, named after a god in an ancient myth about the birth of the nation.

Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said on Sunday on a television programme that Japan's economy remains firms despite recent falls in Tokyo share prices, and he remained confident that the recovery would outlast the Izanagi boom.

The breakdown of GDP data showed the upward revision was mainly due to higher capital spending, which rose 3.1 percent in January-March against an initial reading for a 1.4 percent rise.

The GDP deflator -- a measure used to derive real GDP from nominal GDP by adjusting for price changes -- fell 1.2 percent from a year earlier.
Despite recent rises in consumer prices, the government is not yet convinced the economy has fully emerged from debilitating deflation. It is watching the GDP deflator, along with other data, to confirm if sustained falls in prices have ended.

"There is no change in our view that deflation continues, although there is some improvement," top government spokesman Shinzo Abe told a news conference on Monday after the data release.

Because imports are subtracted from exports to derive net exports, recent higher oil prices have also put downward pressure on the overall GDP deflator.

But the domestic demand deflator, which had been falling for most of the past eight years, improved to a plus 0.1 reading in January-March, yet another sign of improving price conditions.


Separate data showed the corporate goods price index (CGPI) in May rose 3.3 percent from a year earlier, boosted by persistently high oil and raw materials prices.

Higher oil prices have been narrowing Japan's trade surplus.

Data also showed on Monday that Japan's trade surplus was down 32.4 percent in April from a year earlier at 755.6 billion yen ($6.62 billion), while the current account surplus was down 20.2 percent in April from a year earlier at 1.2823 trillion yen. ($1=114.07 Yen) (Additional reporting by Chisa Fujioka)

 

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Per gastro:

NZ dollar holds in narrow range in light trade

WELLINGTON, June 12 (Reuters) - The New Zealand dollar <NZD=> kept to a narrow range on Monday, lacking direction in the absence of cues from the neighbouring Australian markets, which were closed for a public holiday.

In addition, a power blackout in Auckland left some dealing room without power, which may have effected trading volumes.

The New Zealand dollar was trading at $0.6327/37 at 0553 GMT, marginally higher than opening levels but holding on to most of Friday's gains.

"It's probably not a great day to talk about the kiwi because of the Queen's Birthday holiday in Australia and the power outage in Auckland means there has not been very much action at all and been in a pretty narrow range," said Westpac markets strategist Michael Gordon. "It was always going to be a slow day anyway."



The kiwi traded a range of $0.6308-$0.6322 and showed limited reaction to news that New Zealand's terms of trade unexpectedly rose in the first quarter.

New Zealand has retail sales data on Tuesday and a manufacturing survey on Friday, but Gordon said U.S. consumer prices on Wednesday would have most impact.

"People really have inflation on their mind at the moment and this number will be pretty crucial," Gordon said.

"The risks are probably slightly in favour for a higher number so it will support (expectations of) a rise in interest rates in the U.S. and support for the U.S. dollar."

Gordon, however, said he did not expect a great deal of movement in the kiwi this week, with 64 U.S. cents probably the highest it would go.

"My view is that based on relative interest rates there isn't enough to support a move higher, even though we have high rates here they're still not keeping pace with the rest of the world."

New Zealand debt was relatively flat, after U.S. Treasuries rose on another weak performance in the equities market.

 

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Per i bundaroli.


U.S. Treasuries flat in Asia, eyes on price data
TOKYO, June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries were little changed in Asian trade on Monday as many investors around the region stuck to the sidelines awaiting key inflation data later in the week.

The stock market slide in the United States and around the world has helped Treasuries rebound in the past week, spurring safe-haven buying by investors fretting about the growth outlook.

Providing some hope that the rout in shares had run its course, Tokyo's Nikkei average <.N225> reversed early losses and gained 0.56 percent by Monday's close. Since early April the Nikkei has tumbled as much as 18 percent.

With Fed officials making clear their worries about inflation, the central bank is widely expected to raise overnight rates for a 17th straight time later this month and push the fed funds rate up to 5.25 percent.


As a result, short-term yields have lagged the drop in long-term yields and caused the yield curve to invert again, a rare development that sometimes in the past has flagged a coming economic slowdown or recession.

"With concerted Fed hawkish rhetoric, the probability of a Fed rate hike in June has increased despite simultaneous signs of a slowdown in the economy," said fixed-income strategists at Deutsche Bank in a weekly note to clients.

"This suggests that we may experience a repeat of the risk aversion trades seen in May, which skews the balance of risks for the rates market to flight-to-quality squeezes," they said.

Benchmark 10-year yields <US10YT=RR> were little changed to yield 4.979 percent. Two-year notes <US2YT=RR> were also virtually flat to yield 5.005 percent, keeping the yield curve inverted by about 3 basis points.

Earlier this year the curve inverted by roughly 17 basis points, but then signs of robust economic growth drove benchmark yields up sharply to four-year highs.
Among the slew of economic indicators to be released this week the consumer price index on Wednesday stands out as the most important, given heightened worries about building inflationary pressures.

Before then plenty of Fed officials will give speeches and have a chance to make clear their thinking.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gives a talk to students on banking supervision at 2330 GMT and will take questions afterwards.

Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks on the economy and monetary policy at 1315 GMT, while Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on U.S. global policy at 1430 GMT.


Fed Governor Mark Olson speaks on regulatory compliance and fellow governor Susan Bies speaks on risk management.

In Monday's only data, the Treasury will release its May budget statement, expected to be a $39 billion deficit for the month.

 

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Global bonds in minor bear market - CS Asset Mgmt

HONG KONG, June 12 (Reuters) - Global debt markets are caught in a "minor bear market" but strong economic fundamentals and ample liquidity point to long-term support for bonds, a Credit Suisse Asset Management executive said on Monday.

Last month, a range of assets -- commodities, stocks and bonds -- were sold down sharply on fears of a slowdown in the United States and higher global interest rates. That pushed out credit spreads, especially those from riskier emerging markets.

"Global growth is holding up, particularly here in Asia. I don't see any setback to growth," Robert Parker, vice chairman of Credit Suisse Asset Management, told a bond conference in Hong Kong.

"Emerging-debt economic fundamentals, with one or two exceptions, are exceptionally strong at the moment, said Parker.



"Despite the May setback, we continue to see strong investment interest from our clients in emerging debt," he said.

But Brian Baker, a Hong Kong-based executive vice president of PIMCO, the world's leading bond management fund, said it was too early to know whether the sell-off was a minor setback or the start of something longer term.

"It's still to be determined. We are facing a number of uncertainties," Baker said, pointing to the worries over growth and interest rates.

Parker and Baker agreed that credit spreads remained tight despite May's sell-off.

Chris Zilla, head of high-yield Asia credit trading at HSBC, said the market correction may have further to run. He said U.S. inflation data this week would be a key influence on the market view on whether the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) raises interest rates after its June 28-29 meeting.

The Fed has raised short-term interest rates 16 times since June 2004, taking the federal funds rate to 5.00 percent.

Parker said if the U.S. central bank paused in its tightening campaign this month, it could weaken the U.S. dollar and add to the volatility in fixed-income markets.



© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.

 

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Cina!

China Data Watch-May retail sales to hold steady

BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - China probably posted another month of steady retail sales growth in May, as rising incomes and increased government spending aimed at boosting consumption offset the impact of higher fuel prices.

Sales in May are likely to have risen 13.5 percent from a year earlier, according to a Reuters poll, down a touch from 13.6 percent annual growth in April but unchanged from March.

An earlier poll based on fewer responses had estimated annual retail sales growth of 13.2 percent in May.

The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release the figures on Tuesday at 0200 GMT.



"The hike to retail fuel prices was no doubt negative for consumption, and the government's tightening measures may have also had a modest negative effect," Rob Subbaraman of Lehman Brothers wrote in a note to clients.

Concerned over excessive growth in fixed-asset investment that they fear could stoke inflation, authorities recently raised lending interest rates and introduced a host of measures to cool the bubble property market.

"However, household incomes are growing strongly, and fiscal expansion is being directed at boosting consumption. What is more, the equity market rallied in May, which could have boosted confidence and had positive wealth effects," Subbaraman said.

Beijing, seeking to shift growth away from investment and towards consumption, has cut taxes in both urban and rural areas and cancelled rural school fees in an effort to spur spending.

But economists say that the government will need to shore up the underfunded welfare system and provide more funding for education and health care if it is to coax more people into saving less of their money for a rainy day and spending more.

Forecasts for retail sales growth in May (percentage change from a year earlier): Shenyin & Wanguo Securities 14.2 CICC 14.0 Deutsche Bank 14.0 Core Pacific-Yamaichi 13.8 CITIC Securities 13.7 Haitong Securities 13.5 Bank of China International 13.5 Lehman Brothers 13.5 ING 13.3 Galaxy Securities 13.2 Everbright securities 13.0 Royal Bank of Scotland 13.0 High Frequency Economics 12.8 State Information Centre 12.5 Action Economics 12.0 ___________________________________________ Median 13.5 Previous month 13.6 Year earlier 12.8

 

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India!!

UPDATE 1-India's April industrial output up 9.5 pct vs yr ago

NEW DELHI, June 12 (Reuters) - India's industrial output in April rose 9.5 percent from the same month a year earlier as consumers spent more on cars and televisions, raising the chances of a further rise in interest rates in July, analysts said.

The pace of growth outstripped analysts' expectations for an annual rate of 7.9 percent in April. Industrial output expansion for March was revised up to 8.2 percent from a previous reading of 7.7 percent.

Manufacturing, which makes up more than three quarters of industrial production, increased 10.4 percent in April from a year earlier, compared with March's 8.9 percent growth, and a 9.5 percent rise in February.

"These are good numbers," said Saumitra Chaudhuri, economic adviser at credit rating agency ICRA. "A rate increase in July is most likely."



The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in a rare move between scheduled reviews, raised interest rates by 25 basis points last Thursday, taking its key short-term rate to 5.75 percent -- its highest in four years -- to curb accelerating inflation.

The move took markets by surprise. Many analysts had expected the central bank to put rates up at its next scheduled review on July 25 after the government raised fuel prices last week, triggering concerns that inflation could soon top 5 percent.

After the rate rise, many analysts said they still saw another quarter point increase in July.

Weather department officials expect normal monsoon rains this year will bolster crop output, boosting rural incomes and helping industrial output to maintain a strong trend.

More than 600 million Indians live off the land, which means consumer demand is driven by rural incomes, and prospects are bright for farming expansion in the year ending March 2007.

Capital goods output, a barometer of industrial activity, was up 24.9 percent in April, while output of consumer goods, including vehicles and televisions, rose 8.7 percent.

The government estimates Asia's third-largest economy expanded by 8.4 percent in the fiscal year that ended on March 31.

 

[fo64]

Allora facciamo un pò di concorrenza a Fo64

Ma quale concorrenza... il livello qui è decisamente superiore
Sarebbe come paragonare l'informazione data dal Tg Studio aperto di Italia 1 con il notiziario della BBC
Ciao Gipa, ciao ragazzi della banda

 

[gipa69]

Ogni tanto guardo BBC World ma non è che poi sia quel granchè

Ciao Fo

 

[f4f]

urka....

bè il livello della bbbanda adesso è allo zenit !!!
grassie Gipa
mò leggo tutt....

 

[gipa69]

Ancora Cina...

UPDATE 2-China racks up record trade surplus in May
By Jason Subler and Kevin Yao

BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - China raked in a record monthly trade surplus of $13.0 billion in May, but analysts said Beijing was unlikely to respond by allowing the yuan to rise at a faster pace despite concerns about global economic imbalances.

The gap was much bigger than a year-earlier $9 billion and contributed to a cumulative surplus in the first five months of $46.8 billion. That compared with around $30 billion in the same period of 2005.


The United States has urged China to let the yuan rise faster to curb exports and finance ministers from the Group of Seven rich nations pressed Beijing in April for greater exchange rate flexibility to help fix global imbalances.

"I think the whole yuan issue seems to have gone quiet," said Tim Condon, head of Asian financial market research at ING in Singapore.

"It may get some headlines from the China bashers in Washington, but I don't think there's going to be a lot of traction from this number," he said.

Chinese officials have argued against any dramatic appreciation of the yuan for fear of hurting weak export-orientated sectors and fuelling job losses.

Instead, economists expect Beijing to keep a tight leash on the yuan as it urges Chinese to consume more and save less. Economists see excess savings as the root cause of China's high trade surplus
"The trade surplus is very much a structural problem and adjusting the exchange rate alone will not resolve the problem," said Wang Chuanglian, economist at Great Wall Fund Management in Shenzhen.

"The structural adjustments pledged by the government, such as reducing the savings rate and boosting consumption, will need time to show their effects," he said.

Wang said he expected the May trade surplus, which beat the previous record of $12 billion last October, to contribute to a rise in the 2006 surplus to $140 billion from $102 billion in 2005.

"But the authorities are unlikely to let the yuan appreciate drastically, otherwise domestic companies will feel the pinch," he said.


The United States says its trade deficit with China alone was more than $200 billion last year and argues that Beijing keeps the yuan <CNY=CFXS> artificially cheap to boost exports.

Assistant central bank governor Yi Gang last week reiterated China's long-standing position that it would reform its exchange rate regime gradually.

Yi said boosting domestic consumption was more important than adjusting the exchange rate to reduce the trade surplus. China revalued the yuan by 2.1 percent last July and abandoned a dollar peg in favour of a managed float.

The central bank has since let the yuan rise less than 1.2 percent
But analysts expressed concern that growth in money supply, resulting in part from central bank efforts to hold down the currency by selling yuan, could spill over into asset price inflation.

Official media reported last week that annual M2 money supply growth had accelerated in May to 19.5 percent, running well above the central bank's 2006 growth target of 16 percent.

Economists were ambivalent over May consumer price data released on Monday that showed prices up 1.4 percent over a year earlier, picking up slightly from 1.2 percent in April's data.

"The bulk of the inflationary pressures is in the asset market, in the property market. That's why you see the government using administrative measures to tackle the property market," said Chris Leung, China economist with DBS in Hong Kong.


"I believe that China will have to raise interest rates very soon because of inflationary pressures in the asset market. The official CPI more reflects the over-supply situation in the product market, but the inflationary part of the economy entirely rests with the asset market," Leung said.

Great Wall's Wang said he thought the future trend of consumer prices would depend on whether Beijing would succeed at containing growth in investment in fixed assets. (Additional reporting by Tamora Vidaillet