Il 2009 sarà un anno molto duro: credo che i suoi clienti saranno tutti impegnati a contenere il livello degli investimenti.... il loro business è piuttosto ciclico... nel breve non sono granché ottimista...
Oggi quelli di Moody's stanno facendo gli straordinari...
Sono così ottimisti circa il raggiungimento dell'obiettivo del pareggio operativo già nel 2009 che tengono in outlook negativo Al-Lu in considerazione del rischio che le operazioni di ristrutturazione pianificate non raggiungano il risultato
D) oltre che in vista di un calo sensibile dei volumi di fatturato...
Sul fronte delle buone notizie (ritenute tuttavia insufficienti dall'agenzia a fronte dell'intensità con cui Al-Lu brucia cassa) segnalo che alla liquidità già disponibile si aggiungeranno i proventi della vendita della quota in Thales, stimati in 1,6 mld euro che incrementano i 3,5 mld euro preesistenti.
Il problema è che, nonostante la realizzazione delle sinergie in termini di tagli di costi, la profittevolezza di Al-Lu nel core business resta bassa e rischia di essere ancor più compromessa da un calo dei volumi di vendita a doppia cifra in questo segmento di attività.
Il leverage 2008 è ad 8,5x, l'indice di copertura degli interessi sul debito da parte dell'utile operativo è inferiore ad 1 (0,8x).
Resta in outlook negativo perché la scarsa visibilità dei ricavi attesi e la incertezza nell'ottenimento di una una struttura di costi più efficiente lasciano la possibilità di ulteriori cali del rating nel breve termine
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Moody's downgrades senior debt of Alcatel-Lucent to B1[/FONT]
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Approximately EUR5.3 billion of rated debt instruments affected [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Frankfurt, February 18, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to B1 from Ba3 the Corporate Family Rating (CFR) of Alcatel-Lucent. The ratings for senior debt of the group were equally lowered to B1 from Ba3 and the trust preferred notes of Lucent Technologies Capital Trust I have been downgraded to B3 from B2. At the same time, Moody's affirmed its Not-Prime rating for short term debt of Alcatel-Lucent. [/FONT]
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[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The outlook for the ratings stays negative in view of the near term challenges to business volumes and execution of restructuring aimed at bringing the company to operating profit break-even in 2009 and towards cash generation in the following year. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Wolfgang Draack, Senior Vice President and lead analyst for Alcatel-Lucent, summarized: "The rating downgrade reflects the fact that the company's profitability and cash generation has not shown the improvement that Moody's expected to accrue from the merger of Alcatel and Lucent and the subsequent integration and cost saving measures. [/FONT]
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[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In addition, its revenue decline, particularly in the core carrier segment, is accelerating in year on year comparison and cash consumption continues at a high level. While the company still has substantial cash liquidity, at the level of EUR3.5 billion net of short term debt, and has agreed to sell its stake in Thales for about EUR1.6 billion, this compares to about EUR700 million cash consumption over the last 4 quarters. [/FONT]
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[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Continuing high net cash outflows and possibly further cash cost of restructuring would increasingly absorb the company's financial flexibility." [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Contrary to Moody's expectation of operating profitability improving materially in 2008 and cash consumption trending towards a positive amount, but not exceeding EUR600 million in 2008, Alcatel-Lucent's performance and credit metrics have not shown material signs of a turnaround in the past year. [/FONT]
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[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In addition, the outlook for business and revenues is very subdued at least for the first half 2009, while low visibility in the economic environment does not allow a reliable forecast for the duration of this demand weakness. [/FONT]
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[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Alcatel-Lucent, after the recent change in top management levels, anticipates an 8-12% decline in the market 2009, which is actually the most conservative view among the large communication equipment providers, and targets a break-even operating profit. [/FONT]
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[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]This is to be achieved after implementing further cost reductions, resulting in EUR750 million run rate savings expected by end 2009. Given the fact that the largest segment, the carrier business, has been performing just below break-even for the past two years in spite of more than EUR2.0 billion synergy benefits originally targeted and largely achieved, and the prospect for a double-digit decline in revenues, Moody's is concerned that the planned restructuring measures may prove insufficient to return Alcatel-Lucent to robust profitability near term. [/FONT]
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[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Continued performance at the credit metrics for 2008, including EBIT interest coverage of about 0.8 times and debt/EBITDA of 8.5 times, both including Moody's adjustments, is not commensurate with a Ba rating and will actually have to improve considerably to support the current B1 corporate family rating for Alcatel-Lucent. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The negative outlook for the ratings reflects the risks to management's business plan given (i) the low visibility of near term revenues, (ii) the challenges to retain cost savings in a price competitive industry, and ongoing large restructuring cost leading to continued high cash consumption with finite liquid resources. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The rating incorporates the expectation that continued restructuring measures will serve over time to mitigate the impact of pressures on demand and price levels, and that cumulative cash consumption, excluding debt repayments, from 1 January 2009 will be contained within one quarter of cash liquidity minus short term debt (€3.5 billion at FYE 2008).[/FONT]
