Titoli di Stato area Euro Titoli di stato Portogallo - Tendenze ed operatività

[Vespasianus]

Euro zone economic sentiment edged higher to a near six-year high in January, against expectations of a slight dip, as the mood in industry, services, the financial sector and among consumers improved, European Commission data showed on Monday.

The Commission's monthly survey showed economic sentiment in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose to 108.2 in January from 107.8 in December, well above the long-term average of 100 and unmatched since March 2011.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a slight dip in sentiment to 107.7.

Separately, the Commission's business climate indicator, which points to the phase of the business cycle, was unchanged at 0.77 points, the highest level since June 2011.

"The mildly positive developments in euro-area sentiment resulted from improvements in industry, services and consumer confidence which outweighed decreases in retail trade and construction confidence," the Commission said in a statement.

Among the larger countries, economic sentiment decreased in France and very slightly in Germany. It rose strongest in Spain, Italy and the Netherlands.

Sentiment in industry jumped to 0.8 points from 0.0 in December, above market expectations and well above the long-term average of -6.5.

Sentiment in the services sector, which produces two thirds of the euro zone's GDP, also rose to 13.5 in January from a revised 13.1 in December, beating economists expectations.

Consumer inflation and producer price expectations also rose in January.

This is welcome news for the European Central Bank which has been buying billions of euros worth of euro zone government bonds on the market to inject more cash into the banking system and make banks lend more to the real economy to boost inflation closer to its target of below, but close to 2 percent.

(Reuters)

 

[tommy271]

Esatto. I tempi della discesa sono la parte più difficile da prevedere. Che ci sia (ci debba essere) una forte discesa è evidente da un pezzo, ma me la sarei aspettata nel secondo semestre (ipotizzavo fine estate-inizio autunno).
Poi sono arrivate le elezioni americane. Dopo l'imbarcata sembrava si rifiatasse ma adesso si ridiscende su nuovi minimi. Tenendo conto che i mesi a venire si attendono tutt'altro che tranquilli, comincio a pensare che lo spazio di risalita sia molto compresso.
Dovendo tenere liquidità in caso di vittoria di qualche partito anti-europeista io mi sto muovendo a rilento.

Il mercato anticipa molto ... QE vs inflazione ... e chissà, magari tutto si sgonfierà con una trumpmania che farà acqua.

Gli ultimi dati USA non "brillavano".
Ma il mercato ha preferito non vederli.

 

[Vespasianus]

No 'outlook' divulgado hoje, o departamento de estudos do Montepio antecipa que o défice orçamental de 2017 represente de 2% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), considerando que a redução do défice para 1,6% prevista no Orçamento do Estado para 2017 (OE2017) é "demasiado optimista".

Os analistas do Montepio mantêm a estimativa de um crescimento económico de 1,5% este ano - em linha com o estimado pelo Governo, mas salientam que se observa "uma redução dos riscos descendentes".

Ainda assim, a nível interno, o banco continua a enumerar a possibilidade de instabilidade política, a difícil situação no mercado de trabalho, a debilidade do sistema financeiro, os objectivos de consolidação adicionais exigidos por Bruxelas e a pressão sobre as 'yields' da dívida pública entre os riscos que podem levar a uma revisão em baixa da previsão do crescimento do PIB.

A nível externo, o Montepio está preocupado com os riscos do 'Brexit' (saída do Reino Unido da UE), uma vez que "Portugal é particularmente vulnerável ao Reino Unido pela via do setor do turismo, dado a elevada contribuição dos turistas britânicos para a balança turística", mas também as incertezas da política económica que será decidida por Donald Trump, a tensão geopolítica no Médio Oriente, a situação na Grécia e a situação de mercados emergentes, como o Brasil e Angola.

Entre os fatores que podem levar a uma revisão em alta da previsão do Montepio está o baixo preço do petróleo, o euro fraco, a política monetária expansionista do Banco Central Europeu (BCE) e a possibilidade de a economia espanhola poder continuar a crescer acima do estimado.

"Espanha representou, em 2015, cerca de um quarto do total das exportações de bens portugueses e, no primeiro semestre de 2016, 26,5%, seguindo-se França (13,2%), Alemanha (12,1%) e Reino Unido (7,2%)", recordam os analistas.

(JdN)

 

[Vespasianus]

Disoccupazione (stimata) 10,2% a fine 2016, minimo da marzo 2010.

 

[Vespasianus]

The European Central Bank will probably first review its policy stance in June but stop short of any decision on winding down its huge economic stimulus program, ECB rate setter Ewald Nowotny said on Monday.

His comments come amid growing calls in Germany for bringing the ECB's 2.3 trillion euros ($2.45 trillion) bond purchases to an end as inflation there rebounds, far outpacing price growth in weaker economies such as Italy.

Nowotny said rate setters are likely to await the ECB's June economic forecasts before reassessing their policy stance and, even then, no decision will be made about "tapering" -- or gradually ending -- the program, aimed at boosting inflation in the euro zone.

"The discussion about our overall economic assessment will probably (take place) in June," Nowotny, the Austrian central bank governor, said.

"But this is not a tapering discussion, but we will just see, we now have an inflation forecast, which assumes that the rate of inflation will increase significantly and then we will be able to better assess how this evolves."

(Reuters)

 

[antiran58]

Esatto. I tempi della discesa sono la parte più difficile da prevedere. Che ci sia (ci debba essere) una forte discesa è evidente da un pezzo, ma me la sarei aspettata nel secondo semestre (ipotizzavo fine estate-inizio autunno).
Poi sono arrivate le elezioni americane. Dopo l'imbarcata sembrava si rifiatasse ma adesso si ridiscende su nuovi minimi. Tenendo conto che i mesi a venire si attendono tutt'altro che tranquilli, comincio a pensare che lo spazio di risalita sia molto compresso.
Dovendo tenere liquidità in caso di vittoria di qualche partito anti-europeista io mi sto muovendo a rilento.

...infatti..personalmente temo più il fly to quality del periodo elettorale che l'inflazione importata in area Eu..in Usa credo che, alla luce dell' accoglienza riservata a Trump anche dalla finanza,la Yellen andrà molto cauta..favorendo pero' così Donald che ha bisogno di un dollaro debole o almeno non così forte..pero' se Trump davvero metterà in atto i robusti tagli fiscali promessi,la conseguenza sui rendimenti T-Bond e poi Bund sara' solo una...

 

[Vespasianus]

Studio Commerzbank (allegato) sui costi di servizio del debito nell'eurozona da qui al 2020 in caso di rialzo dei tassi.

Even if interest rates were to rise quite steeply, the interest costs of most countries would initially fall further in the next few years. Spain’s state budget for example would be relieved by about 1⁄4% of GDP through the refinancing of old bonds up to 2020 even if the yields of ten-year government bonds immediately rose by 200 basis points and remained there for the next four years (Chart 4, page 3). That said, this only applies under the assumption that money market rates remain constant due to unchanged ECB monetary policy (which can probably be assumed for some time yet), i.e. the yield curve became much steeper.2 In this scenario, the interest burden on Germany, France and Italy would also decrease further.

However, if the curve shifted upwards in parallel by 200 basis points, the interest burden would slightly increase on balance for all countries in the coming years. While this increase would be rather negligible in the case of Germany, France and Spain, it would amount to a somewhat more significant €3 bn or 0.15% of GDP in the case of Italy.

Special case of Portugal
Only Portugal could face a growing interest burden again already at quite a moderate further rise in interest rates. After the rise of past weeks, the current yields of ten-year Portuguese government bonds are only about 30 basis points below their level ten years ago, while the gap for other countries is between 2 percentage points (Italy) and almost 4 percentage points (Germany; see Chart 5).

Consequently, unlike the other countries looked at here, if yields immediately rose by 200 basis points Portugal’s interest burden would also grow by 2020 if the yield curve steepened. If the curve shifted in parallel – i.e. at a rise in money market rate of the same scale – Portugal’s state budget would be burdened with additional interest payments on the existing government debt up to 2020 at a rise in yields of 100 basis points. If yields climbed by 200 basis points as assumed in our calculations so far, the additional burden would be a good 0.3% of GDP.

 

[Vespasianus]

Tough times lie ahead for Portuguese bonds.
They were a euro area laggard last year, and 2017's looking pretty poor. European Stability Mechanism Managing Director Klaus Regling said last week markets are “nervous” about Portugal’s debt level, financial sector and competitiveness.

Portuguese yields had got low enough to suggest we were a long way from the bailout days of 2011-2014. While it's been a bad few months for bonds around the world, Portugal's are showing particular strain. Recent developments justify concern about Portugal's ability to depend on support from the Troika of the European Central Bank, European Commission and the International Monetary Fund.

The government is doing itself no favors by straying from the austerity path. Portugal was the poster child for fiscal tightening during its three-year stint in intensive care, under the previous center-right government. The hard work paid off, as seen in the plunge in bond yields.

However, the current Socialist-led minority coalition under Prime Minister Antonio Costa has reversed cuts in public sector salaries and pensions, and progress in stabilizing the government finances has stalled. The finance ministry has been at pains to point out that the 2016 deficit to GDP ratio beat its 2.5 percent target. However, there has been next to no progress in reducing the debt to GDP ratio, Europe's third highest after Greece and Italy. That is a fundamental problem that will never be resolved unless there is a debt writeoff -- which unfortunately would only be over Germany’s dead body.

Trapped in its 232 billion euro ($248.2 billion) debt vortex, what has kept Portugal out of trouble is its adherence to the Troika’s demands for fiscal discipline. Its economy is one of the smallest in the euro zone, so the government just doesn't have scope to threaten officials with recalcitrance, as Italy can. While the ESM has plenty of funds to underwrite Portugal’s debt it would balk at allowing it to slip back into emergency measures.

The timing could not be worse as Portugal has bumped up against the ceiling of the ECB’s 33 percent issue and issuer limits for its Public Sector Purchasing Program. Ireland is in the same boat, as Gadfly's pointed out. Central bank purchases have been crucial in driving down Portugal’s bond yields, but instead of the 1.4 billion euro monthly pace that's allowed by program rules, this has dropped to 700 million euros in December and will likely fall further to a 440 million-euro pace. Portugal’s support mechanism is being taken away from it while it very much still needs all the help it can get.

Though it's taken the short-term step of issuing a benchmark 10-year bond, at rather a punchy yield, to keep the purchases flowing, this isn't a sustainable solution.

Fitch Ratings is due to review its BB+ credit rating for Portugal on Feb. 3rd, and has warned that it has concerns about the government's balance sheet and banking system. Its outlook is stable, but even a move to negative would be a big sign that the direction of travel has changed, and heap pressure on the importance of its sole investment-grade rating from the Canadian agency Dominion Bond Ratings Service Ltd. at BBB (low). That rating is vital for Portugal to retain access to the ECB’s QE -- becoming ineligible would plunge its bonds back into crisis territory.

Rules can be amended but it would require some creative moves yet again from the ECB, the Eurogroup and crucially its own government to not see Portugal debt spiral out of control.

Portugal's been posting middling rates of economic growth lately, and it has a decent amount of liquidity. But indebtedness is very high, and it looks like officials have lost the appetite to bring it under control and keep the troika onside. Investors look like they're starting to catch on to this shift, and that could worsen down the road.

(Bloomberg)

 

[Vespasianus]

Inflazione europea stimata a gennaio, dati Eurostat.

 

[russiabond]

Banca na mão de estrangeiros? Até pode ajudar, diz a Fitch